Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 130845
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
345 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 340 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

Skies have cleared and surface winds have become light/calm as of
early this morning, resulting in strong radiational cooling ongoing.
Temperatures have fallen into the upper 30s to lower 40s, roughly 20
degrees below normal. Patchy frost will be possible in portions of
northwest Missouri during the next few hours. The cold airmass in
place will gradually retreat/moderate today, but temperatures will
remain well below normal in the lower to middle 60s, even with sunny
skies. Surface high pressure will move to the east today, with light
southerly winds returning through the weekend. Overnight low
temperatures tonight will be warmer with some moderation of the
airmass and an increase in scattered clouds around 6-8kft.

A warmer day is expected on Sunday, with afternoon readings in the
70s. By Sunday evening, a shortwave trough will drop southeastward
into the Dakotas, placing the forecast area within the right rear
quadrant of the upper jet. Weak warm air advection coupled with
upper ascent from the approaching trough should allow for scattered
convection to develop Sunday night across the area. Models show
increasing moisture and instability overspreading the area by late
Sunday night, suggesting that a few thunderstorms will be possible.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

The upper pattern will become more amplified through the extended as
ridging strengthens over the Intermountain West and troughing
prevails over the Northeast. This will leave the area in a
northwestern flow pattern. However, the chances for precipitation
look meager at best with the forecast as the area should primarily
be influenced by an expansive surface over the eastern half of the
CONUS. This should keep low level moisture shunted into the Plains,
keeping the best chances for precipitation to our north and west.

This will also keep temperatures relatively mild with highs in the
70s expected through Friday. There will be a warming trend through
the week though and by Saturday highs should be near 80 degrees. Low
temperatures will follow a similar trend with 50s expected through
Thursday and 60s likely by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1055 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

Clr skies will be the rule throughout the TAF period however, light
winds will allow for fog formation this morning. Fog will develop btn
08Z-09Z initially reducing vsbys to 5SM however MKC and STJ may
experience a period of IFR vis btn 10Z-13Z with vsbys dropping to
1/2SM at STJ and to 2SM at MKC. Fog will burn of by 15Z as winds pick
up from the SE at 5-10kts.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FROST ADVISORY until 8 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ102.

MO...FROST ADVISORY until 8 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ001>005-011-
     012.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...CDB
AVIATION...73






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