Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 040901
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
301 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

Short Term (Today - Saturday night):

The short term looks mild and mostly dry with no major hazards. The
coldest temperatures we`ll experience through this period will occur
as you head out this morning with temperatures starting out in the
mid teens to lower 20s. A weak upper level trough moving quickly
through the Upper Midwest today will force a weak cold front through
the area late in the day. However, out ahead of the front, a return
to southwest winds will help temperatures warm into the upper 30s to
mid 40s. Surface high pressure will build into the area tonight
allowing for light winds and clear skies which will provide for good
radiational cooling. Temperatures will fall into the upper teens to
mid 20s. Friday, shortwave ridging out ahead of a progressive
shortwave trough digging into the Central Plains coupled with a
return to southerly flow will allow highs to rise into the upper 30s
to upper 40s. The best chance for precipitation in the short tern
will come Friday night as the aforementioned shortwave forces a cold
front through the area. Moisture will be meager with this system
however, models suggest there is a slight chance for light rain or
snow across the southern CWA. A surface ridge of high pressure will
build back into the area Saturday behind the departing trough.
Height rises will help allow temperatures rise into the 40s on
Saturday.

Extended Range (Sunday - Wednesday):

The extended forecast period will feature a drastic pattern change
bringing colder temperatures to the area as well as the chance for
some light snow. This pattern change will begin on Sunday as an
upper level trough digs south through the Upper Midwest into the
Ohio River Valley by Monday. As this trough digs southward it will
force a cold front through the area late in the day Sunday/Sunday
night. Moisture will again be meager with this system however, it
should be sufficient enough to produce light snow. The eastern CWA
will have the best chance of receiving snow as well as light
accumulations. On Monday, a secondary arctic front will push through
the area bringing another chance for light snow to the area as well
as much cooler temperatures. Highs on Monday will be in the 30s. By
Tuesday, the pattern across the CONUS becomes highly amplified with
ridging over the western CONUS and troughing over the east. The
local area will be in between under strong northwest flow aloft
which will help bringing much colder temperatures to the area. Highs
on Tuesday will struggle to get out of the 20s with only slightly
warmer temperatures expected for Wednesday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all the terminals across
northwestern Missouri through the next 24 hours. Otherwise, winds
will back a little overnight to the southwest.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Cutter


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