Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 291744
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1244 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 547 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A nice start to the week will eventually give way to
on-again-off-again storm chances later in the work week and through
the weekend. The pattern to begin the week is rather amplified with
a substantial ridge noted over the western CONUS and a deep trough
over the eastern half. Resulting northwest flow across the center of
the nation has brought some stormy weather to Kansas and Missouri in
recent days, but this potential activity wont start for a couple of
days.

Conditions for today and Tuesday will be dry with near normal
temperatures prevailing as we find our section of the country
in between the perturbations in the northwest flow that generally
generates storms in our region. This should allow afternoon highs to
creep into the low 90s across east central Kansas and adjacent areas
of Missouri by Tuesday.

As we shift through the early work week into the mid and late
portions of the week a familiar weather pattern will return with
on-again-off-again-storm-chances dominating through the weekend. The
general pattern across the country is expected to remain rather
amplified over the next week, with some form of a northwest flow
across the Central Plains. This points at the potential for many
different rounds of storms as any little shortwave trough in the
flow will likely generate some convection; especially at night as
these little waves focus the nose of the nocturnal jet, likely
resulting in the development of convective complex. First of these
events that might affect our section of the country will arrive
Tuesday night as the nose of the low level jet points at southeast
Nebraska and/or northwest Missouri. Resulting storms could linger
well into the day Wednesday, likely affecting storm potential and
development across the region later Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The story remains the same through the end of the work week and into
the holiday weekend as the ridge to our west retrogrades only a
little to the west Coast, thus leaving a "dirty" northwest flow
prevailing over the Plains. This will keep a general chance for
storms in the forecast, but should also help temperatures trend
below normal thanks to the expected cloud cover and potential rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

Other than a layer of smoke aloft due to extensive ongoing forest
fires over Alberta and Manitoba VFR conditions and light winds will
continue.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...MJ






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