Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 181719

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1219 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Issued at 335 AM CDT TUE OCT 18 2016

Satellite imagery from early this morning shows the pattern across
the Nation being rather flat, with a modest upper level ridge
currently suppressed across the southern Plains through the Deep
South and a low spinning slowly east across the Canadian Plains,
resulting in the prevailing westerlies being sandwiched across the
Northern Plains. Looking back to the west, a shortwave trough is
noted making landfall across the Pacific Northwest, and is expected
to be a player in the coming weeks weather. And finally, closer to
home, a dry cold front --which will provide some focus for rain this
week-- is slowly pressing southeast through Northern Missouri early
this morning.

The dry cold front settling through the region, currently along a
line form St Joseph to Bethany, will continue to shift southeast
today; albeit slowly as the upper level flow between the Canadian low
and Gulf Coast ridge wont help much given its east- west orientation
across the Northern Plains. That said, we still expect the front to
settle into southern Missouri by late this evening. Lack of moisture
along the front and any upper level support has left the front unable
to generate any stormy activity thus far, but as the Pacific
Northwest shortwave progresses east expectations are that it will
phase with the Canadian low, allowing cooler temperatures across the
Northern Plains to spill south. This will also provide some upper
level support for returning Gulf moisture which should initiate some
storms Wednesday. However, given that the front will be the focus for
the storms and that the front will be wallowing across southern
Missouri (I-44 corridor), rain chances look best across southern
Missouri with the highest chance of storms in our areas being from
east central Kansas through central Missouri. No severe weather is
expected with any storms in our forecast area.

Otherwise, only thing to watch will be the falling temperatures for
the middle of the work week. As the Pacific Northwest trough moves
through it will allow a bit of cool air to sweep south making it
feel a bit more fall like by Thursday; afternoon highs in the upper
50s to low 60s. However, as quickly as the temperatures tumble they
will recover as the phased Pacific Northwest trough quickly shifts
east allowing an upper level ridge to expand east into the Plains
pushing above normal temperatures back into the region for the
coming weekend; highs in the 70s.


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT TUE OCT 18 2016

Quiet flying conditions next 24 hours with high pressure dominating
the region. Winds will decrease late this afternoon and become
northeasterly overnight. Any precipitation on Weds should remain
south of a KC to Kirksville line.




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