Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 230342
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
942 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 932 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

Considerable drying as noted in water vapor and standard IR satellite
loops has scattered out the cloud cover across west central MO during
the past 1-2 hours. However, the cyclonic circulation around a mid
level low over NE will allow multi-layered mid clouds to circulate
eastward and eventually back into the western CWA. Thus, have
adjusted cloud cover to account for the above. In addition, the last
of the light rain will pull out of northern MO into IA shortly which
will result in a generally dry overnight period. The far northern
counties could still see some sprinkles later tonight.

Quick look at the 00Z NAM is hedging towards the 21z SREF and 12z
ECMWF solutions in generating a band of significant snowfall further
west on Wednesday. Doesn`t quite make it into the CWA but will need
to see how the 00Z GFS and ECMWF handle the mid-week system.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

Surface low is tracking into northwest Missouri this evening with a
trailing cold front approaching the Kansas-Missouri border. Most rain
will taper off from west to east through the evening as the front
moves through, but could see some lingering light rain/drizzle across
far northwest Missouri into the overnight hours.

Most of Tuesday should be quiet aside from far northwest Missouri
where some light rain/snow could linger off and on through the
afternoon. Don`t expect much if any snow accumulation through this
time. However, could see some light accumulating snow spreading
southeast through much of the forecast area Tuesday night as the
primary upper trough sharply deepens and the trough axis swings
through. Right now it looks like any accumulations with this system
would be an inch or less, tapering off by early Wednesday afternoon.

Most models agree on the upper trough reaching its maturity after it
passes overhead leading to cyclogenesis across the Ohio Valley on
Wednesday and a strip of light accumulating snow somewhere across
eastern MO/IL/IN. This is the most likely outcome and what the
official forecast continues to be. The one exception to this has been
the last 2 or 3 runs of the SREF, in which enough members have hinted
at a deeper and further west system that the SREF mean now paints a
stripe of accumulating snow across western and central Missouri
Wednesday morning. The members responsible for this shift tend to do
better in the very short range (24 hours or less) and not so well
beyond this, so unless any operational models start to latch onto
this trend the SREF will be disregarded as an outlier. But at the
very least, these trends show the very high unpredictability with
this system (ensemble spreads extremely high) so it does bear
watching in case later forecasts were to change.

By Christmas Day clouds should finally clear out allowing
temperatures to rise into the mid 40s. This will start a stretch of
relatively quiet weather across the area with the storm track
shifting to our north Friday and Saturday. ECMWF brings a system to
our south on Sunday, but for now the drier GFS is preferred yielding
a dry forecast into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 527 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

Ceilings will continue to improve this evening, eventually becoming
VFR through most of the period. Fog development in the early morning is a
possibility, but as of now, not enough evidence to include in the
forecast. Will revisit the likelihood of development for the 06Z
issuance and adjust if necessary. Precipitation chances will come
into play in the early stages of the next forecast period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Welsh





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