Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 171118

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
518 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

Issued at 512 AM CST SAT FEB 17 2018

Looks like there will be a few different chances to see some
precipitation over the next week, though the form that the
precipitation takes will be highly dependent on temperatures as they
wonder above and below freezing.

This morning satellite and radar imagery show a shortwave trough
making its way across the Southern Plains, scooping up sufficient
moisture to generate a wide swath of showers from the Red River
Valley northeast into southern Missouri. Earlier solutions for this
particular trough where always showing rain making into southern
Missouri, but it appears early this morning that the shortwave, and
it`s associated precipitation, are just a little farther north. Hi-
res operational models also are picking up on a weak surface wave
that will likely bring the precipitation north, which is seen
starting to develop in the radar returns currently across south
central Kansas. As a result, have pulled the mention of
precipitation north a few counties. This may lead to some mixed
precipitation types (snow/sleet/rain) across areas depending on the
thermal profile at the time of precipitation. That said, the window
for any precipitation, even mixed, is very short this morning as
surface temperatures will be on the rise thanks to the time of day
and southerly winds that will arrive later this morning. Thus, we
might pick up anywhere from a trace to a couple tenths of an inch of
snow in areas south of the Missouri River, but any snow (or sleet)
that falls wont last long as afternoon highs are still expected to
climb into the 50s. Otherwise, a few hundredths of an inch of rain
is all that is expected.

Sunday into the work week...will see temperatures range from way
above normal to around normal as a large trough develops to our
west, helping develop a southwest flow that will likely result in
the passage of several shortwave troughs. This pattern of activity
will get going Sunday night as moisture transport across the Plains
increases rapidly in response to a large trough deepening across the
Western CONUS. This will not only bring us some needed moisture, but
also some warm temperatures; with highs in the 50s and 60s Sunday
and Monday (maybe even 70s in central MO). For POPs Sunday night
through Monday, have included a mention of thunderstorms given the
instability available and the general synoptic set up. However, the
most challenging part of the forecast will likely be Monday night
through Tuesday into Wednesday morning, as the western trough lifts
just enough to allow the colder air, just to our north and west, to
spill south starting Monday night. Currently, the cold air is not
forecast to shift south very fast, so much of our precipitation types
Monday night through Tuesday are still all liquid outside of the far
northwest corner of Missouri, but that might change in the coming


.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 517 AM CST SAT FEB 17 2018

VFR conditions will give way in the next hour or two to MVFR CIGs
and light precipitation as a quick moving weather system moves
through western Missouri this morning. As a result, expect VFR
conditions to return by the late morning hours with the wind
veering through the south today on its way to the northwest this




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