Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 290429

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1129 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Issued at 249 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2017

Primary concern with this forecast issuance is the placement and
amounts of highest rainfall this weekend as a very damp, potent
system moves through the region. Rain showers this afternoon have
all but tapered off, leaving a brief period of patchy drizzle then
generally dry conditions for the remainder of the night, before
the next round of rain moves in. Rainfall amounts through this
afternoon are generally around a third of an inch to an inch,
which has saturated the ground and lowered the 6-hr flash flood
guidance to around 3 inches. The lowest FFG amounts are just below
3 inches mainly across central MO and far northwestern portions of
the CWA.

The deep trough currently carving southward into New Mexico will
push east on Saturday, then will deepen and wrap northward as a
cut-off low through Sunday night. The surface low track is
surprisingly consistent among models and their previous runs,
trekking across Oklahoma on Saturday and into west central MO by
Saturday night. The stalled boundary currently sitting over the KC
metro will sink southward this evening as high pressure pushes
down from the north, but will surge back northwestward as the
surface low approaches, settling along a line stretching from
southwestern MO to the STL area Saturday afternoon and evening.
Surface based convection will focus along and just south of the
boundary; however, very high PWATs and deep lift support the
development of elevated convection and substantial precipitation
north of the surface boundary. Despite model agreement on the
placement of large scale features, large discrepancies remain with
the north/south extent and position of the heaviest QPF. Have
stuck with the more southern trend, since surface based convection
will have more instability to work with and should conceptually be
heavier than precipitation to the north, which is also supported
by many of the convection-allowing models. Have expanded the Flash
Flood watch just a shade across central MO, but feel that the main
flood threat for this weekend will be mainly to rivers, outside
the possible isolated flash flood issues across central MO.

After a full day of nearly non-stop rain Saturday and Saturday
night, a dry slot may move through the forecast area Sunday as the
system wraps up, and the surface low lifts northward into north
central MO. Wrap-around precip is expected to slide through
northern MO Sunday night and a few light shallow convective rain
showers are possible on Monday, then precipitation should end with
this system.

Additional rainfall is possible Wednesday and Thursday, but again
the axis of heaviest precipitation looks like it will occur south
of the CWA. Slightly below normal temperatures are expected
through the long-range forecast period with mainly northwest flow
aloft and a more southern position of the upper jet.


.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2017

Long duration IFR conditions expected through the forecast period
of moderate rains and low cigs impact the area. Confidence
continues to increase that alternate mins and potentially airfield
mins will be met at all airfields this morning, and again after
00z. First batch of heavy rain expected to enter the area after
12z, with another round of heavier activity anticipated after 00z
per latest model runs. Winds through the period will remain from
the northeast between 10-15 kts.


KS...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for KSZ057-060.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for MOZ031>033-038>040-



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