Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 270911
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
411 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017
Issued at 403 AM CDT MON MAR 27 2017
Beneficial rain will continue through the early portions of Monday
morning as an upper shortwave treks due east through the afternoon.
Additional rainfall totals will generally remain below a quarter of
an inch as the storm system continues to weaken overall. A
southwest to northeast oriented elevated boundary over eastern
Kansas will bring one additional round of light to moderate
rainfall before this begins to weaken by the late morning.
Afternoon highs will rebound only slightly today, generally
peaking in the mid to upper 50s. Low level stratus will linger
through the day, though a few breaks may be observed across the
western counties as surface high pressure briefly builds into the
area in the wake of the trailing shortwave. Surface temperatures
will increase slightly on Tuesday as upper ridging develops over
the region, rising into the lower 60s.
While dry conditions are expected Tuesday, an unsettled pattern
will bring additional widespread rain to the area beginning
Wednesday morning through early Friday. At that time a shortwave
now positioned over northern California will quickly deepen and
bring a surge of deep layer moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.
Expecting initial convection to commence southeast of the area
within the warm sector of the attendant surface low as it enters
the Texas Panhandle early Wednesday. This activity will then trek
northeast into the local area and forcing will persist through
early Friday as the surface low advances northeastward. Marginal
elevated instability atop the cold pool, coupled with strong wind
fields aloft, may produce isolated hail up to once inch Wednesday
afternoon. This will mostly be limited to areas south of I-70,
though areas north up to Highway 36 could still see small hail
during this time. Rain showers with embedded thunderstorms will
continue into Thursday and early Friday as the upper trough slowly
weakens and lifts overhead. With precipitable water values
between 1 inch to 1.5 inches, expecting to see rainfall totals
near 1.5 inches for most areas, with values approaching 2 inches
for central Missouri. While antecedent conditions and relatively
limited rainfall rates will minimize the overall flood threat,
localized river flooding may be possible where prolonged rainfall
over a multi-day period may occur.
Precipitation will slowly taper off by early Friday and dry
conditions will make a brief return through Saturday. Another strong
upper trough similar to the mid-week system will then bring another
round of steady rain through the late weekend into the early week.
Rainfall totals will not be as impressive with this activity, though
the overall unsettled pattern through the next seven days will bring
relief to the moderate drought conditions across much of the area.
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017
MVFR ceilings have eroded across the region, and may not return
until after the next round of light showers passes through the
region. As a result, have delayed the timing of lower cigs to
later tonight, when the surface low approaches a bit closer.
Otherwise, still expecting multiple rounds of on-and-off showers
through mid-Monday morning, briefly reducing visibilities to
between 2-5 miles, and winds gradually backing to the north
northwest by Monday afternoon.