Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 290856
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
356 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 355 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2017

A pleasant Memorial Day awaits as dry conditions will continue with
near-seasonal temperatures underneath mostly sunny skies. By
Tuesday morning, however, storm chances will return as a weak cold
front clips northwest Missouri by the afternoon as a mid-level
shortwave pushes southeastward over the area, associated with a
deeper upper-level system near the Great Lakes. While surface
dewpoints will limit the overall instability ahead of the frontal
boundary, adequate wind fields aloft may support strong storms by
Tuesday afternoon across eastern Kansas and western Missouri.
Gusty winds, along with marginally severe hail, will be possible
with this activity.

A broad region of high pressure will then build from the northwest
heading into Wednesday as a large ridge develops over the Northern
Rockies. As the surface high pushes southeastward by early Thursday,
southerly surface flow will return to the area, which will bring
dewpoints back into the lower 60s by the late week. Moisture
advection will make its way to the Dakotas by early Friday, which
will prime the local area for a multi-day period of precipitation
chances beginning Thursday through the late weekend. This will
likely come periodically, dependent on the amount of forcing at play
over the multi-day timeframe as the upper-level pattern looks to
be rather disorganized. Despite the persistent warm advection,
surface temperatures will be moderated to near-normal by steady
periods of cloud cover and chances of precipitation. With the
exception of perhaps Thursday, the overall severe threat during
this time will be limited by weak wind fields aloft, as the jet
stream positions well north of the local area.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2017

VFR conditions will continue through the period. Mid-level clouds
will advect over the terminals Monday morning, and with a weak
boundary in place, could see a few sprinkles, though generally
thinking conditions will remain dry throughout Monday.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Welsh


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