Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 191721

1121 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

Issued at 340 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Short term (Today through Sunday):

The short term will feature a warming trend through the period this
however, will be despite cloudy skies, nocturnal and morning fog, as
well as periodic drizzle.

Today, an upper level trough will move from the southern Plains into
the lower Mississippi Valley keeping all sensible weather south of
the area. However, model soundings are consistent in keeping the
first 4kft of the column saturated over the area. This would allow
for patchy period drizzle. Weak southerly flow will allow
temperatures to warm slightly with highs mainly in the mid 30s. Weak
WAA will continue Friday night helping to keep the low level
saturated and continuing drizzle chances as well as aiding in fog
development. On Saturday, continued weak WAA as well as warming H850
temps will allow highs to rise into the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Sounding profiles do dry out enough in the lower 4kft to preclude
drizzle across the southern CWA however, soundings continue to show
saturation from the surface to 4kft across the northern CWA and it
is here that patchy drizzle will again be possible. Increased WAA on
Sunday will help to raise temperatures into the 40s. It will also
increase the influx of low level moisture into the area on Sunday.
Forcing will be lacking during the day on Sunday which will keep
rain at bay however, patchy drizzle will again be possible.

Extended Forecast (Sunday night through Thursday):

The main system of interest in this forecast package will fall in
the beginning of this timeframe. This system, in the form of an
upper level trough, will come on shore in the Pacific northwest on
Saturday night. By Sunday night it will quickly move into the
northern Plains with an associated cold front extending south. This
front will approach the area late Sunday night or Monday morning
spreading rain into the forecast area. Rain will continue across the
forecast during the day Monday as the cold front does not move the
the CWA until late in the day. Strong southerly flow out ahead of
the front will help temperatures rise into the mid 40s to near 50.
Model solutions begin to diverge Monday night as the GFS takes a
closed low over north central and moves it northeastward into the
Great Lakes. This would provide for a general dry conditions behind
the front on Monday night and Tuesday with just some very light snow
or flurries. The EC on the other hand, drive the upper low
southeastward from northwestern Iowa into northeastern Missouri by
Tuesday night. This solution would provide for a prolonged period of
light snow persisting from Monday night into early Wednesday with
light accumulations. With quite different solutions, have maintained
the initialization for the superblend in keeping low end chance POPs
across my east for Monday night and Tuesday and just slight chance
across the western CWA. Conditions then look to dry out for
Christmas Eve and Christmas Day with near average temperatures in
the mid 30s to lower 40s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1107 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Low-level moisture will remain in place with southerly flow through
the period. Expecting IFR ceilings for the most part with possible
windows of MVFR conditions in the afternoon hours. Tonight,
conditions are favorable for fog development while light winds out of
the south will help maintain the fog through sunrise. Expecting to
see LIFR ceilings in addition to periodic LIFR visibilities
overnight. Gradual lifting will occur around 15Z, though IFR ceilings
look to remain in place through the end of the forecast period.




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