Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 242129
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
329 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 329 PM CST FRI NOV 24 2017

It`s been a warm, windy and dry day across eastern Kansas and
northern Missouri. Satellite imagery shows a modestly amplified
pattern across the Nation with a West Coast ridge and eastern CONUS
trough leaving a locally flat flow in place across the Central
Plains. However, to our north a shortwave trough is noted quickly
moving east across Canada, dragging a cold front with it across the
Plains. As of this writing, the cold front has entered the far
northwest corner of Missouri.

Tonight through Monday...will be void of much, if any, weather
concerns as temperatures wandering up and down are the only issues
we will have to watch. Tonight, the cold front currently in
northwest MO will finish sweeping through the state; thus allowing
cooler northerly winds to spread into the region for Saturday. This
will push afternoon highs back down into the 50s to low 60s for the
weekend. However, Monday we are expecting a return of strong
southerly winds ahead of another frontal boundary that will move
into eastern Kansas and northern Missouri Tuesday. This set up may
lead to well above normal temperatures again as highs in the 60s
are expected. And, while it is not in the forecast yet, we might
see temperatures in the 70s again Monday.

Currently, confidence in the forecast beyond Monday is a bit low, as
operational and ensemble models continue to struggle with providing
consistent solutions with respect to the transit of a trough across
the CONUS starting late this weekend and continuing through the work
week. Of particular import is the amount of energy dumped into the
base of the advertised trough as it exits the Rockies, as this will
dictate the strength and influence that the resulting shortwave
trough will bring to the Central Plains. Models had been jumping
between open shortwave solutions and closed off solution, though
in the past 24 hours model trends have shifted towards the closed
off, but progressive, shortwave solutions with the 12Z GFS in
decent agreement with both the ECMWF and Canadian models. So,
there will be a increasing chance of precipitation next Tuesday
into Tuesday night, with the highest chance for precipitation
likely during the day Wednesday as the main trough moves through.
Currently, temperatures, both during the day and overnight hours
of Tuesday and Wednesday, look sufficiently warm that wintery
precipitation is not expected; and moisture looks a bit sparse, so
light accumulations of rain are all that is expected. However,
along with some rain next week, this weather system will also
bring cooler temperatures for the rest of the work week.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1117 AM CST FRI NOV 24 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. Only issue
to watch will be the gusty winds ahead of a cold front that will
sweep through early this evening, veering the wind direction from
southwest to northwest. Winds will calm down overnight with a light
north wind expected Saturday.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Cutter


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