Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 212120

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
320 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

Issued at 320 PM CST TUE FEB 21 2017

Dry air continues to push in from the northwest this afternoon as
upper-level low pressure over eastern LA/AR gradually drifts to
the southeast, leaving the majority of the CWA very quiet this
afternoon. Plentiful heating but no real mixing/advection has
resulted in very mild temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s,
setting a reference point for tomorrow`s warmer conditions. The
only real concern tonight will be the potential for some patchy
fog in our very far southeast where increased low-level moisture
and cloud cover has clung on a bit longer, but expect that any
dense fog issues as these clouds clear this evening should be
confined mainly to the southeast of our CWA and have elected only
to brush our southeast with a patchy fog mention.

Record-setting warmth is expected across the region tomorrow as
the thermal axis translates eastward and surface convergence along
and ahead of a weak cold front enhances mixing of the warming
temperatures aloft. A brief batch of scattered, thin cirrus is
possible during the late morning hours, but should not limit
heating significantly, making mid- to even upper-70s not out of
the question for the entire CWA by late afternoon. Mixing of these
anomalously warm/dry conditions and breezy surface winds will
definitely heighten the wildfire danger tomorrow, which is further
discussed in the Fire Weather section.

Wednesday`s "cold" front will gradually wash out and stall as a
weak stationary boundary on Wednesday night, then should lift back
to the north as a warm front on Thursday as lee-side surface low
pressure deepens and ejects out into the central Plains. Increased
upper-level winds and divergence with an approaching jet streak
will enhance both shear and broad-scale lift, which will combine
with up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE in the warm sector and near the front
to support convection. Morning showers and/or a significant EML
could limit the potential for strong storms and makes the severe
potential very slim, but will bear watching over the next 24-36
hours if conditions come together just right. The warm front
should race north of the CWA during the late afternoon or evening
as the surface low treks northeast, lifting showers and storms
north of the region sometime in the window around 00z.

Cold air will follow behind the system, but the upper trough will
take more of an easterly path and keep the coldest air east and
north of the CWA. Highs will be near normal this weekend and lows
may dip into the 20s both Friday and Saturday night, but above
normal temperatures are expected to return by the end of the
forecast period early next work week. A quick brush of light snow
or a light rain/snow mix may wrap around into the region late
Friday night behind the surface low, but snow accumulations
should stay north of the CWA. Another weak clipper system is
possible in its wake on Sunday as well, but temperatures will be
marginal, possibly resulting in a rain/snow mix, and likely not
producing accumulating snow.


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM CST TUE FEB 21 2017

VFR conditions will continue through the period as thicker cloud
cover associated with the upper low over the eastern LA/AR region
remains southeast of the terminals. Winds will be light through
the day, varying in direction from northeast to northwest before
gradually increasing out of the southwest during the early morning
hours. Gustier southwest winds are expected just beyond the end
of the TAF period on Wednesday.


.Fire Weather...
Issued at 320 PM CST TUE FEB 21 2017

Very warm temperatures are expected tomorrow afternoon, which will
combine with dry conditions and breezy southwest winds to bring
conditions near Red Flag criteria. RH will be the limiting factor
for critical wildfire danger, but with dry fuels and breezy
conditions, we do expect to see conditions favorable for the rapid
spread of any wildfires that do ignite. Outdoor burning is not
advised throughout the day tomorrow, and interested parties should
continue to monitor the forecast for the possible issuance of a
Red Flag warning with the next forecast issuance early tomorrow




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