Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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654
FXUS63 KEAX 022329
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
629 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 320 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

Today`s been a bit of a cloudy cool day, with a few instability
showers percolating across the region thanks to a series of troughs
that recently ejected from the Desert Southwest through the Central
Plains. Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows another larger
shortwave trough digging, almost due south, this afternoon through
the northern Plains as it exits the Canadian Plains, which has
reinforced the 500mb weakness noted across the center of the Nation.
However, ultimately this northern Plains shortwave will have little
effect on the sensible forecast other than helping clear the clouds
out.

Tonight the Canadian Plains trough will continue its way south, and
will eventually swing to the southeast later Tuesday. However, this
particular trough is not dragging too much cold air with it, and
therefore will do more to lower humidity values and clear the skies
of the cloud cover that has been hanging out for the past couple of
days than anything else. So, despite the north wind that will
prevail, highs Tuesday are expected to climb to around 70 degrees
thanks to the insolation under sunny skies. And, the weather for the
rest of the work week looks just as nice, if not nicer.

With the exiting of the Canadian shortwave Tuesday a bit of a
blocking pattern looks to set up across the Nation which will induce
a ridge across the Plains as large troughs take up residence on the
East and West Coasts. This will keep our section of the country dry
through Saturday, with highs possibly around 80 degrees by Friday
and Saturday. However, we will have to watch for when the West Coast
trough ejects through the Plains as that will likely result in our
next decent and widespread chance of rain. Current model solutions
point at this possibility occurring as early as Saturday night and
Sunday, but mid-range model solutions for closed circulations --like
the West Coast one expected-- typically slow down as the solutions
get closer to reality. Therefore, confidence in storms arriving as
early as Saturday night is rather low with confidence growing for
Sunday and Monday of next week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 617 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

Aside from a few periodic sprinkles this evening, impacts will be
minimal through the forecast period. Light winds will vary until
sunrise as a surface ridge pushes eastward overnight. VFR stratus
will begin to thin out Tuesday morning with light winds becoming
northwesterly.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Welsh



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