Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 151727
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1227 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016
Issued at 350 AM CDT SAT OCT 15 2016
The big players for our weather for the next week or so are an upper
level ridge over TX/surface high in Carolinas and the upper level
trough on the West Coast/surface low in central KS. These features will
continue to interact with each other aiding in the tightening of the
pressure gradient and increasing WAA over our area.
This morning will be similar to yesterday morning with a thick status
deck and patchy drizzle possible through the early afternoon. With
the previously mentioned setup, today will be a little winder and
warmer than yesterday. Expect wind gusts to be around 25-30 mph with
highs in the upper 70s, low 80s. Highs were decreased a few degrees
than what we previously had though because the cloud cover will be
sticking around all day today.
This evening, a shortwave trough will move east through the High
Plains, pushing a cold front toward the area. This creates a chance
for showers and storms in northern MO, especially in northeast MO,
during the evening and overnight hours. In northeast MO there is also
a marginal risk for severe weather, with hail being the primary
threat. The cold front will stall in IA/NE and then lift north as a
warm front Sunday morning; therefore, we will remain sandwiched
between the ridge and trough. Sunday and Monday, expect skies to
clear, with high temps in the mid- upper 80s, and wind gusts between
25 and 30 mph.
Another shortwave trough will make its way east Monday night into
Tuesday. This trough will be strong enough to break the hold of the
ridge and will push a cold front through our area. This will be a
dry frontal passage with much cooler temperatures following it.
Expect highs in the low 60s for the end of the work week.
On Wednesday, the strong upper level trough on the West Coast will
finally begin to move into the central US bringing more rain chances.
Right now though, the GFS and ECMWF are not in agreement about timing
and strength. The GFS moves the system out slower and makes it a
closed low, while the ECMWF moves the system out much quicker and
keeps it as an open wave. Either way, rain chances appear to continue
through the end of the work week.
.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT SAT OCT 15 2016
MVFR ceilings are expected through much of the period. Probability
for breaks in the clouds appear lower today. Scattered showers are
possible late this afternoon and early evening. Wind speeds will
remain gusty through the afternoon hours. May begin to see some
improvement by mid-morning Sunday.