Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 212335
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
635 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 319 PM CDT TUE MAR 21 2017

Cold front continues to sag southward into the Southern Plains
this afternoon as surface high pressure builds in from the north.
Pressure gradient on the south side of this high will remain
somewhat tight overnight, so increased winds should prevent much
of a freeze threat except for perhaps a light freeze over far
northern Missouri. Subfreezing temperatures shouldn`t last too
long over these areas, so not expecting any kind of deep freeze
that would warrant freeze headlines for these areas.

Cooler temperatures will continue into Wednesday with highs about
5 to 9 degrees below average. Boundary to the south will then
quickly lift north across the area Wednesday night, bringing
temperatures back into the 70s for much of the area by Thursday
afternoon, though still only in the 50s for the Kirksville area.
Could see a few elevated storms develop along the warm front late
Wednesday night but weak instability should keep the hail threat
low.

Warm temperatures expand into the entire area on Friday ahead of a
deep upper low that will track across the area Friday night and
Saturday. The main surface low is expected to track just to the
south of the forecast area which should keep the threat for any
strong or severe storms focused well to the south across the
Arklatex region. However, deep synoptic-scale ascent combined with
precipitable water values climbing to well over an inch should
allow for some widespread beneficial rains of a half inch to an
inch for our region, possibly locally higher especially where any
storms develop. Scattered showers and a few storms will continue
into Saturday as the low tracks over the forecast area in a
vertically-stacked manner.

The upper level pattern looks to remain active into next week with
another upper low tracking across the area on Monday, and possibly
more beyond that. With the primary storm track remaining south of
the area, the risk for severe storms should stay fairly low
through this time but we could certainly be looking at more
widespread beneficial rainfall next week with no threats for frost
or freeze after tonight until at least early next week. Good news
for plants.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT TUE MAR 21 2017

Expecting VFR conditions with winds persisting out of the E/NE
around 10 to 15 mph. Some lower clouds on Wed, but no flight
category changes expected.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...Leighton


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