Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 200504
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1104 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 302 PM CST THU JAN 19 2017

The main concern again tonight centers around fog potential. Warm,
moist advection continues across the area with the upper low
spinning to our west. As temperatures begin to cool this evening and
the boundary layer quickly saturates, visibilities should quickly
drop and dense fog looks like a good possibility. This should
occur first over the northern third of the forecast area, where
visibilities just north of state line are very poor already. Fog
should then build further south with time, eventually encompassing
the entire forecast area after midnight and persisting to at
least late tomorrow morning. Given the high probability of dense
fog across the entire area, have issued a dense fog advisory for
tonight through late tomorrow morning.

That upper low should slowly progress through the area late tonight
and through the day tomorrow. At the surface and in the low levels,
warm, moist advection will persist through the day tomorrow and it
may not be until tomorrow evening that lower level moisture begins
to erode as the mid level trough approaches the area, providing just
enough subsidence to erode the low level clouds. Given that tomorrow
looks cloudy for most, if not all, of the day, have trended
temperatures down a few degrees.

For the weekend, Saturday continues to look mild with highs
approaching 60 degrees in the southeastern portions of the forecast
area. A weak cold front should move through the area Saturday night,
helping to get the region back to more seasonal temps. Highs Sunday
should be in the low to mod 40s compared to the low 50s to near 60
degrees.

For the extended portion of the forecast, through the middle of next
week, broad troughing will spread from the western CONUS through the
middle of the country. While it looks like there will be several
embedded areas of vorticity, the leading wave looks to move into the
area Tuesday. This will spread the next good chance for
precipitation across the area. It looks like temperatures will be
warm enough to keep wintry weather at bay. There is some difference
in the timing and location of the surface low associated with the
wave but all the models show an unfavorable track for wintry weather
until after the low passes and we see any light wrap around moisture
in the cold side of the storm. Temperatures look colder on the back
side of the trough, owing to ridging developing over the eastern
Pacific/west coast and northerly flow through the middle of country.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1103 PM CST THU JAN 19 2017

IFR settling back into area terminals this evening with
expectations remaining that IFR will dominate through early
afternoon. As this occurs...expect airfields to fall below
airfield mins with these trends continuing through 15 or 16z.
Trends will begin to improve late in the afternoon as drier air
begins working northward with time. As this occurs...expect a
gradual return to VFR late in the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Friday for KSZ057-060-103>105.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Friday for KSZ025-102.

MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Friday for MOZ021-022-028>033-
     037>040-043>046-053-054.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Friday for MOZ001>008-011>017-
     020-023>025.

&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...32


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