Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 031656

1156 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015

Issued at 405 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015

Today - Wednesday...

Operational model solutions have changed little with respect to the
major features over the past 24 hours. An amplified pattern remains
with a deep upper low over the Deep South and an upper trough that
is lifting north-northeast into the Northern High Plains. In between
a ridge of high pressure extends from TX into Hudson Bay. This upper
ridge will move little over the next several days and its subsidence
will minimize cloud cover today. However, satellite imagery reveals
a gradual westward expansion of stratus from the TN/OH Valleys which
has made it into the Bootheel. H8 condensation deficit and
trajectory progs indicate this stratus will likely push into mid MO
tonight and the eastern half of the CWA on Sunday. Other than a few
sprinkles not expecting any measurable rain although temperatures
will be affected negatively.

For today expect pretty much a carbon copy of yesterday as 925mb
temperatures are little changed. Once again should see some gusty
northeasterly winds this afternoon.

As the new week starts the upper ridge is expected to shift eastward
and once the axis slides past us we`ll see warm air advection
increase allowing both warmer temperatures and an increase in
mid/high clouds...but remaining dry.

Wednesday Night - Friday...

Medium range models taking a different twist from the middle of next
week on. A deep upper low which the GFS had advertised as our next
weather maker no longer looks like it will be a major player. The
ECMWF had previously taken a more southern route with this upper
system continues to do so and now has the GFS hopping on board. This
feature is now expected to head into either northern Mexico or pass
through TX by late next week. Our weather, i.e. rain chances, now
looks like it will be dictated by a northern shortwave tracking
through northwest flow. Scattered showers and maybe a few embedded
thunderstorms could accompany a cold front dropping from the
Northern Plains.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1150 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015

VFR conditions will continue through the afternoon and overnight
hours. Upper-level clouds will slowly filter in the area Saturday
afternoon from the west, though stratus layer over Kansas should
remain well outside the terminal sites. Low-level cloud development
will, however, will become a factor overnight, particularly at the
very end of the forecast period as moisture moves into the region
from the east. Winds will back while slackening a bit overnight.




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