Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 211117
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
517 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 301 AM CST TUE NOV 21 2017

The dry weather pattern will continue through this forecast period
although it is not for a lack of weather system affecting the area
but instead, a lack of moisture. Early this morning, a cold front
has begun to move into northwest Missouri. This front will continue
to push southeast through the forecast area this morning. Behind the
cold front, strong CAA will filter into the area as well as broken
to overcast clouds. This will make for a much cooler day today with
highs in the lower 40s across the north to the lower 50s further
south. Tonight, surface high pressure which is current centered over
the lee side of the Canadian Rockies will build southeast into the
region. This will make for a good radiational cooling night with
lows falling into the upper teens to mid 20s. High pressure remains
over the area Wednesday with little mixing keeping highs in the
upper 30s to mid 40s. Another dry cold frontal passage will occur on
Thursday morning with surface high pressure quickly building in
behind it. There, however, will be little cold air behind the front
and in fact, the frontal passage will actually enhance mixing
allowing temperatures to rise into the 50s. Surface high pressure
will shift east of the area Thursday night with WAA increase during
the overnight into Friday. This will allow highs to rise well above
normal in the 60s before a cold front pushes through later in the
day. Cooler air will then advect in behind that front Friday night
into Saturday with highs falling back into the 50s. High pressure
will build back into the area on Sunday with strong northwest flow
aloft keeping conditions cool with highs in the mid 40s to lower
50s. Monday, downstream upper level ridge will build over the region
ahead of a trough digging through the Rockies. This will allow highs
to rise back into the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 517 AM CST TUE NOV 21 2017

A cold front is movg thru the terminals this morning. It is
already thru STJ and will move thru the rest of the TAF sites
within the first hour of the TAF being issued and will veer winds
from the SW to the N. Northerly winds will pick up to 15-20kts
with gusts to 30kts btn 15Z-16Z. Winds will wkn btn 23Z-00Z this
evening but remain btn 10-15kts before finally dmshg to around
5kts tonight. Otrw...VFR conds are expected through the TAF pd
with bkn mid-lvl clouds this morning giving way to sct high clouds
this afternoon before skies clr out this evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...73


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