Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 230847
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
347 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017
Issued at 347 AM CDT SUN APR 23 2017
Conditions today are looking very nice for National Picnic Day.
The shortwave trough that brought the showers and cooler weather
Friday into Saturday is slipping east of Missouri early this
morning, with a surface ridge sliding in behind it across the
region. This will help temperatures climb back into the 70s today
under rather sunny skies. Adding to the nice day will be the fact
that winds will be rather light and variable. So, the important take
away is that today is a really nice day for a picnic. Looking beyond
today...the pleasant conditions will continue into the beginning of
the work week as a shortwave ridge floats across the Plains States
behind the exiting shortwave, but more stormy activity looks to be
in store as a powerful jet streak makes landfall across the Nation,
ultimately resulting in an unsettled pattern that will then prevail
from Tuesday night through at least the end of the work week.
Monday into Tuesday temperatures will remain rather nice with highs
in the 70s. However, by Tuesday a cold front will begin to sweep
across eastern Kansas and Missouri as strong jet streak helps
amplify a trough across the Rockies. Current timing indicates that
storms might not develop in our area till the overnight hours of
Tuesday, with the best potential for severe weather looking to be
located in southwest Missouri into northeast Oklahoma. But, will
need to keep an eye on this potential as it could slip north into
west central Missouri if the timing of the shortwave slows or it
shifts north. Cooler weather will follow the front across the Plains
states with highs likely to fall back into the 60s, where they will
likely stay into the weekend as the trough to the west forces the
prevailing westerly jet south of Missouri for a few days.
Eventually, late in the work week, the broad trough carved out by
the jet streak will consolidate into a deep trough over the
Mountainous west before moving east late in the weekend. This will
provide more than one opportunity for widespread stormy activity
over the later half of the work week and into next weekend.
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT SAT APR 22 2017
Northerly winds are in the process of weakening and are expected
to become light and variable overnight into Sunday morning.
Winds will become southerly by late afternoon as surface high
pressure moves off to the east. Clear skies will eventually be
replaced by cirrus late in the day.