Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 192343
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
643 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 249 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

Water vapor imagery and radar returns show a system slowly moving to
the northeast out of southern KS/northern OK. The low level air mass
over eastern KS and western MO remains very dry though. So it may
take until later this evening for enough saturation to occur before
any shower activity reaches the ground. So have trended PoPs up
after 00Z and especially 03Z. With this system slowly moving through
the area, have trended up on PoPs through tomorrow and as a result
have increased sky cover and lowered temperatures several degrees.

That system will move away by Friday evening with a shortwave ridge
building through the Plains. However, a strong low level jet will
develop and with modest isentropic ascent. The NAM is farther east
with this ascent and arrives precipitation earlier in the day
Saturday. The GFS is slower but also eventually moves some
precipitation into the area. Have trended higher with PoPs during
the day Saturday across our western to southwestern zones. Once that
lift shifts away from the area and/or weakens, we should see
temperatures finally get back to above normal levels by Sunday.
Increasing thickness values along with warm and moist advection
ahead of the next system should allow temperatures to climb to
around 80. By Monday, another good chance for showers and storms
will develop as a front moves into the area. Instability will still
be low on Monday so the threat of severe weather looks low at this
time. That may change come Tuesday as the front washes out and then
lifts back into the area as a warm front. The GFS sets up an
extremely unstable environment south of the warm front, over the
southern half of the forecast area. Increasing winds aloft will lead
to a modestly sheared environment but given the high CAPE the
potential for severe storms will exist.

The pattern remains unsettled for the rest of the forecast with a
trough over the southwestern states. Eventually this evolves into a
closed or cutoff low, depending on the model, and slowly moves
through the area into next weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 638 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

Off and on light VFR showers will continue through the overnight
period. By Friday morning ceilings will likely come down a bit to
near MVFR thresholds, but confidence is low to medium that MVFR
ceilings will occur at KSTJ, KMCI, and KMKC. Higher confidence based
on better model agreement at KIXD of MVFR ceilings. Then should see
gradual improvement in ceilings through the day on Friday.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...Leighton



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