Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 310434

1134 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

Issued at 323 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

Generally quiet conditions and seasonable temperatures are expected
over the next several days as upper-level high pressure currently
over the southern Plains continues to retrograde westward and brings
northwest flow back across the region. At the surface, high pressure
will drift very slowly to the east, allowing light southerly winds
and a bit more moisture to seep back into the region beginning
tonight and continuing into the weekend, bringing dewpoints back
into the upper 60s to near 70, and max heat indices back into the
mid to upper 90s most afternoons. A few disturbances may ride down
the ridge and into the region during the forecast period, but will
be somewhat difficult to pin down both spatially and temporally.

The first ridge-riding shortwave trough will drop southeastward on
Friday and may allow a few thunderstorms to develop across eastern
Nebraska, which could translate southeast into the region late
Friday evening into the early overnight hours. Storms will likely
weaken and diminish in intensity as they sink southward away from
better upper-level flow and forcing, so have reduced PoPs after
midnight and south of the MO river. A similar situation is possible
on Saturday night; however, storms will likely develop and stay
farther to the north. Confidence with the presence and location of
any storms during this late work week and weekend period are fairly
low, and most areas likely will not see rain until next week.

Precipitation chances increase early next work week as northwest
flow amplifies and a few stronger shortwave troughs push directly
into the forecast area. Currently, the best chance for precipitation
should come Tuesday night into early Wednesday, and again Thursday
night into early Friday; however, precipitation is at least possible
in nearly every period of the mid- to long-range forecast. Humid
conditions and seasonable temperatures are expected to continue with
highs in the lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s, until
perhaps the end of the period when a boundary potentially sets up
south of the forecast area and allows cooler northeast flow to sink
into the region.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR conditions expected through the period. High pressure spread over
the region will keep winds light with only high level clouds for the
rest of the night. Still looks like enough moisture will return to
get some instability and diurnal cumulus to develop. There may be an
area of thunderstorms develop over eastern Nebraska Friday evening
and track to the southeast. There is enough uncertainty at this
point,both in whether any system actually forms, and where it may
track, that have kept mention out of the forecast.




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