Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 191925
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
125 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 119 PM CST SUN NOV 19 2017

A large surface ridge in place over the area underneath northwest
flow aloft will maintain cloud free skies and slightly cooler
than normal temperatures through the remainder of the afternoon
and evening. Light southwesterly winds will steadily increase
overnight and particularly Monday late morning and afternoon as a
lee-side surface low matures across southern Canada. This will
moderate temps to the mid 30s across the area tonight, with a more
notable increase expected Monday. By Monday afternoon, wind gusts
could range from 25 to 30 mph, which will help to push afternoon
highs up slightly from Sunday. Generally expecting to see temps in
the upper 50s to low 60s across the area at that time, with
Monday night lows only dipping into the upper 30s to low 40s.

The brief warming trend will come to a halt Tuesday as the surface
low to the north forms a cold front, which will then push through
the local area Tuesday afternoon. A building upper-level ridge to
the west will block deep layer moisture ahead of the front, thus not
anticipating any precip as the boundary pushes through the region.
Below normal temps behind the front are expected both Tuesday and
Wednesday, until warm advection returns on Thursday. Tuesday night
temps will drop to the upper teens to low 20s across northern
Missouri, and low to mid 20s elsewhere. Locally speaking,
Thanksgiving Day looks to be seasonal with afternoon highs peaking
in the mid 50s for most of the area, and low 50s across
northeastern Missouri. Travelers in the surrounding area should
have no weather concerns through the holiday weekend as dry
conditions will continue as the ridge axis to the west stalls and
eventually forms a blocking pattern.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1112 AM CST SUN NOV 19 2017

VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period as a
surface ridge in place continues to push eastward. Low-level flow
will increase overnight as this feature moves downstream, which
may present the possibility of overnight wind shear as 1kft winds
approach or exceed 40kts. Increased surface winds and relatively
uni-directional flow look to minimize overall impacts, though will
be worth monitoring. Gusty southwesterly winds will then commence
Monday morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Welsh


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