Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 131022
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
422 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017


.Discussion...
Issued at 422 AM CST FRI JAN 13 2017

Focus of this forecast remains on the ice storm expected this
weekend across the Lower Missouri River Valley, though the latest
model guidance has begun to back off on the amounts of wintry
precipitation expected.

Have trended towards the NAM solutions early this morning as models
continue to try and resolve the precipitation for the weekend. GFS
solutions seem a bit too aggressive with the amount of warming it
advertises. Additionally, not fond of how GFS limits the northward
expanse of over running warm air precipitation. Think the NAM does a
better job of picking up on the light icing mist or drizzle that
could spread north this afternoon. However, across the board, model
solutions have backed off on the totals for ice accumulation for
this event; though they all still advertise enough icing to warrant
continuation of the going Ice Storm Warnings, with one adjustment to
timing on the north side.

Early morning satellite imagery shows a strong circulations spinning
over the West Coast, inducing a nice southwest flow from the Desert
Southwest into the Central Plains. Closer to home, a cold
surface high continues to ooze its way across the Northern and
Central Plains, leaving our section of Kansas and Missouri with
below freezing temperatures this morning. And, to our south, radar
imagery shows showers having popped up across southern Missouri
in response to the warm air advection the southwest flow is
inducing with the onset of the nocturnal jet across Texas and
Oklahoma.

For Today...we expect the southern Missouri showers to continue to
lift north into east central Kansas and Central Missouri. This will
likely result in freezing rain in areas from Butler to Clinton to
Sedalia and Boonville later this morning into the afternoon with a
quick few hundredths to a tenth of an inch of ice or more just
today. Early morning model solutions indicate that the freezing rain
activity may have a hard time moving north of Highway 50 today, but
still think there is a good chance that light mist or drizzle will
prevail in areas north of Highway 50 this afternoon, and the
resulting icing is enough to warrant keeping the Ice Storm Warning
aligned as is through tonight.

Saturday into Sunday...Current trends have the rain spreading north
a bit more slowly than previously advertised, with areas north of
Highway 36 free of anything more than slight chance POPs during the
day Saturday. Therefore, have adjusted the onset time for the
segment of the Ice Storm Warning that covers areas from St Joseph
and Unionville north, from 6 AM Saturday morning to 6 PM Saturday
eveing. Still expect a widespread areas of freezing rain to lift
across Missouri Saturday night into Sunday, likely resulting in the
majority of the icing expected for this event. Still looks like warm
air advection will be strong enough Sunday to eventually push
surface temperatures back above freezing. Areas near the Iowa border
may have to wait till Sunday as the freezing rain retreats north
for significant ice accumulations to occur.

For Monday...temperatures will be on the up swing as the upper level
negatively tilled shortwave trough and surface low both move
northeast across the Plains States. This will likely bring still
more rain to the region Monday and Monday night. On the up side
temperatures in this period will be above freezing owing to the
warming south wind the surface low will bring. Have included a
mention of isolated thunder in for Monday evening in central
Missouri owing to the couple of hundred joules of CAPE noted in
the warm sector of the lifting surface low.

Otherwise, expect conditions to be dry Tuesday through
Thursday with temperatures trending above freezing with our next
chance of widespread precipitation returning as early as Friday.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1109 PM CST THU JAN 12 2017

No significant changes to the timing of freezing rain/freezing drizzle
and ice pellets into the terminals. For MCI, MKC and IXD, looks
like light freezing rain/sleet is possible by the early afternoon.
Models have indicated more of a freezing drizzle impact so have
added that later in the afternoon. Based on forecast soundings,
that light precipitation looks possible through the night.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Ice Storm Warning from 9 AM this morning to noon CST Sunday for
     KSZ057-060.

     Ice Storm Warning from noon today to midnight CST Sunday night
     for KSZ025-103>105.

     Ice Storm Warning from 6 PM Saturday to midnight CST Sunday
     night for KSZ102.

MO...Ice Storm Warning from 9 AM this morning to noon CST Sunday for
     MOZ033-038>040-043>046-053-054.

     Ice Storm Warning from noon today to midnight CST Sunday night
     for MOZ017-020>025-028>032-037.

     Ice Storm Warning from 6 PM Saturday to midnight CST Sunday
     night for MOZ001>008-011>016.

&&

$$

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...CDB



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