Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 281712
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1112 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 354 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Our snow maker in the form of an upper level shortwave is evident
moving across western OK/KS early this morning and will continue to
spreading east-northeastward. Expect snow to move into east central
Kansas by about 15Z and quickly spread across the entire CWA this
afternoon. Models have consistently continued to push the initial
main band of snow further south and have trended that way as well.
This would put the main band for today/tonight along the southern
CWA where 2 to 3 inches will be possible using ratios between 10 to
14 to 1. That being said have trimmed back significantly the
northern extent of the snow and have areas along the Missouri/Iowa
border receiving half an inch to 1 inch. Have also lowered
temperatures for today with significant cloud cover and weaker then
advertised WAA. Expect highs mainly in the mid 20s.

Tonight there will be a lull in snowfall as the initial wave pushes
east of the area. However, after midnight/early Sunday morning,
models indicate a frontogenetically forced band of snow will set up
over the area. The NAM continues to be more focus with this band of
snowfall in the vicinity of the I-70 corridor whereas the GFS
continues to depict a broader and more prolonged band of snowfall.
The GFS continues to be the most overdone with this feature then any
of its counterparts so have trend towards the NAM. As such it
appears another half an inch to 2" will be possible with this second
round of snow by Sunday afternoon. All told expect storm total snow
to range from 1 to 2 inches along the Missouri/Iowa border and
mainly 2 to 4 inches further south with a few locations across
central Missouri perhaps approaching 5 inches. Snow should shift
east of the area by late Sunday afternoon as surface high pressure
builds into the area from the northern Plains.

High pressure will shift east of the area on Monday afternoon. This
will cause winds to swing back to the southeast. This will allow
temperatures to warm albeit tempered somewhat by existing snowpack at
that time. Expect highs on Monday to reach into the 30s which is
still some 10-15 degrees below normal for the beginning of March.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Friday)
Issued at 354 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A highly amplified, positively-tilted upper trough, with the lead
shortwave trough will eject into the Central Plains on Tuesday.
Strong warm air and moisture advection within a broad warm sector is
expected in advance of the upper trough. The initial ascent from the
wave may generate some light precipitation across the area Monday
night. While much of this will fall as a cold rain, the exiting cold
airmass may remain below freezing over the northeast quarter of the
CWA, owing to the possibility of light freezing rain. Impacts should
be minimal, especially with precipitation falling through a +3C to
+6C warm layer above the surface and surface air temperatures in the
lower 30s. Very warm H85 temperatures around +10C will move into the
area by Tuesday morning, temporarily ending any concern of wintry
precipitation. Rain will overspread the entire area on Tuesday as
strong ascent moves over the region. Forecast soundings show a
shallow, skinny CAPE, so with the increasing deep-layer shear and
moisture advection, cannot rule out a few isolated thunderstorms
over the south half of the CWA. Highs on Tuesday will warm into the
middle 40s north to middle 50s south. A cold front will move through
Tuesday afternoon/evening, with some of the lingering precipitation
transitioning to light snow late Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday
morning before the precipitation ends. Confidence is low for any
post-frontal accumulating snowfall. Cold weather with below normal
temperatures and dry weather are expected for Wednesday into
Thursday as surface high pressure builds into the central CONUS and
the upper trough slowly moves eastward, with warming temperatures by
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1058 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Winter weather will continue to work through the area with the current
wave of activity expected to taper off around 00Z. Lingering flurries
are possible, but the main forcing will have shifted to the south by
that point. Ceiling heights could drop to IFR at times up until 00Z.
The next wave will develop overnight with initially light snowfall
undergoing further development by 14Z. This will weaken toward the
very end of the forecast period with gradually improving conditions
after 18Z on Sunday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST Sunday FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST Sunday FOR MOZ004>008-
     012>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...Welsh





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