Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 200510

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1110 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

Issued at 157 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2017

An elongated trough from Montana down through northern Mexico has
started to slowly progress to the east and interact with the large
ridge currently in place over the midwest. A jet maximum will push
into the northern plains helping to develop a surface low with a
cold frontal boundary extending down into a stationary boundary
between this short wave and the high pressure over the SE portion
of the US from South Dakota down to northern Texas. With Gulf
moisture pumping into the warm side of this boundary a line of
showers and embedded convective weather will develop along the
southern portion of the boundary Sunday overnight. The main areas
of lift will split our general area with the cold frontal boundary
lifting north and the stronger isentropic accent staying to the
south. There will be enough lift and elevated instability
(100-200J/kg) to form up a weak line of showers that push through
the CWA from west to east from 9-15z with another increase in lift
from increased low level jet convergence producing showers and
isolated thunder around 21z along the eastern portion of the CWA.
Precipitation totals will remain relatively low with the western
CWA getting 0.1-0.2" and the western area getting 0.2-0.3" through
Monday night.

Weak southwest flow and warm air advection along with sunny skies
will allow Tuesdays and Wednesday high temperatures to reach into
the mid 70s with many areas possibly breaking records or getting
very close. We have increased temperatures 5-6F higher than the
operational models (GFS specifically) with that current trend
working well the last few days of extreme warm temperatures.
A shortwave will exit the Rockies Thursday night helping to
develop a surface low over southern Kansas. This low develops
quickly with a strong low level jet setting up over Missouri
pushing the warm air advection north into Iowa. This is important
as all the operational models have this low track right towards
that warm air leaving most of our area in the dry slot on the
south side of the warm front. Some areas along the IA/MO border do
look to get rain Thursday night into Friday with temperatures
well above freezing to start off with. As the low tracks to the NE
the colder air eventually moves into the region Friday afternoon
with some possible rain/snow mix along the IA/MO border. This shot
of cold air will bring us back down to reality with highs in the
mid to upper 40s Friday and Saturday with wind chills on Saturday
down in the upper teens.


.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1110 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2017

An area of shra with embd ts is spreading NNE acrs ern KS tonight
and is expected to reach the terminals btn 09Z-10Z. VFR conds will
prevail until that time however after these showers move into the
terminals MVFR cigs are expected with vsbys dropping to 5SM-6SM.
Showers are expected to prevail until 15Z with MVFR cigs. There
may be a few showers in the vc btn 15Z-19Z with MVFR cigs before
conds finally become VFR during the afternoon. Winds will be out
of the south btn 7-12kts thru this evening when they will veer to
west btn 5-10kts.




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