Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 272344
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
644 PM CDT Wed May 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A rainy 48 hours begins Thursday morning with a series of weak
upper-level impulses that will interact with an increasingly moist
airmass. The first of these impulses is sparking off convection
across the High Plains this afternoon, and this feature will bring
rain and a few storms to the area as early as sunrise Thursday. Off-
and-on rain chances will then continue through Saturday morning with
a continued parade of weak impulses combined with steady low-level
isentropic ascent. Rain chances will end with the passage of a cold
front Saturday morning.

With poor lapse rates, marginal instability and weak shear through
Saturday, the threat for strong or severe storms looks low aside
from an isolated strong wind gust or marginally severe hail Thursday
or Friday afternoon. The bigger concern will be the potential for
more heavy rain. Some ingredients are in place for heavy rain
including deep moisture, precipitable water amounts up to 1.75" and
somewhat deep warm-cloud depth. However, with a lack of a well-
defined forcing mechanism it makes it difficult to pinpoint where and
when the heaviest rain could fall. In addition, storm motion vectors,
while slow, don`t appear supportive of training storms compared to
some of the more recent heavy rain events. Therefore it seems that a
widespread 1" to 1.5" will be the general rule by the time all is
said and done Saturday morning with a few locally higher amounts.
This isn`t too conducive for flash flooding when it falls over 48
hours so will not post any flood watches at this time.

Saturday will see drier weather behind the morning front although
clouds may take a while to clear out. Post-frontal airmass will be
seasonably cool with highs in the upper 60s/near 70 both Saturday and
Sunday with lows in the lower 60s. Broad upper-level ridging will
maintain generally dry conditions into early next week. There could
be some isolated afternoon "popcorn" storms by mid-week as moisture
returns to the area and temperatures climb back into the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 637 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR conditions will continue to prevail through the early
overnight hours, with lowering ceilings arriving before sunrise
Thursday. As a weak disturbance approaches the four terminals from
the west in the early AM hours, could potentially see some
leftover precip from a decaying system but confidence in the
precip being able to hold together as it approaches, directly
impacting the terminals, is low. However, higher convective chances
arrives late afternoon tomorrow, prompting VCTS mention for all of
the terminals. Southerly to southeasterly winds will prevail,
increasing throughout the TAF period as surface high pressure
exits the region.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...lg





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