Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 220814
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
314 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 314 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

Main concern in the very near term will be the decaying MCS
currently edging into northeast Missouri, and how much the cloud
cover and precipitation associated with it will impact temperatures
this morning. Warming cloud tops and surging outflow indicate that
the complex may be on its last legs early this morning, but any
lingering cloud cover could definitely dampen diurnal temperature
rises across far northern and northeast Missouri. Have trended cloud
cover up and slowed temperature rises across the northeastern third
of the CWA throughout the morning, but did not significantly edit
afternoon highs as even a short amount of sunshine will allow temps
to soar in the overarching very warm pattern.

Impressive, broad ~600 dm 500 hPa heights over the southern Plains
will eventually lower and retrograde back to the west this weekend;
however, this will have no short-term impact on local temperatures
as the thermal ridge continues to bulge eastward across the central
Plains. Persistence forecasting has been and will continue to be the
name of the game with high temperatures in the upper 90s to near 100
degrees expected today and Saturday until increasing cloud cover and
an eventual shift in the pattern begin to interrupt the dangerous
heat Sunday. Have left the heat warning as is due to very little
change in the weekend forecast.

A shortwave trough pushing into the Pacific NW today will round the
ridge this weekend and eventually begin to make some southward
progress as the upper high weakens early next week, allowing a slow-
moving cold front to sag southward across the Plains and eventually
into the forecast area by Sunday night or early Monday. Increased
cloud cover ahead of the front on Sunday will decrease highs for the
northern third of the CWA, then will progressively spread southward
and keep temperatures more seasonable (and more reasonable!) for the
coming work week. Showers and storms still look possible along the
frontal boundary late Sunday night through Monday, but have been
hesitant to raise PoPs above 50 with the bulk of the upper-level
forcing remaining well north of the forecast area. The front will
stall and eventually wash out over the region Tuesday; however, the
upper high will remain well to the west of the region and allow for
more northwesterly flow aloft to dominate our pattern, keeping rain
and storm chances possible on-and-off through the remainder of the
forecast period. Currently, the next best potential for rain will
come Wednesday as a shortwave trough slides down into the region;
however, specific timing is definitely not set in stone for any of
these later-in-the-week features.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

VFR conditions expected through the rest of the forecast period. Low
level wind shear remains marginal with southwesterly 30 to 35 knot
winds about 500 to 1000 feet off the surface and southwesterly winds
around 5 to 10 knots at the surface. Should surface winds go calm
then LLWS concern will increase, but so long as surface winds remain
in the 5 to 10 kt range then LLWS will remain marginal.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ025-057-060-
     103>105.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ102.

MO...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ028>033-
     037>040-043>046-053-054.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025.

&&

$$

Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...Leighton



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