Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 140535
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1135 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 252 PM CST TUE FEB 13 2018

Main focus in the short term will be drizzle/stratus and perhaps
some fog potential tonight as moisture advects into the region.
Winds will remain sustained at 5 kts or above, which should keep
visibilities from tanking, but will also support the strong
advection of higher surface Td`s to near overnight temperatures.
The best potential for drizzle or very light rain showers will be
in central MO, where isentropic lift and thus forcing for precip
will be a bit stronger.

Cloud cover could be a limiting factor to temperatures tomorrow,
but models differ strongly in how persistent stratus will be from
mid-morning onward. The GFS and NAM both show their typical
tendencies with low-level moisture (NAM more persistent with
moisture, GFS mixing out more quickly), so is difficult to
determine which is right and how well temperatures will be able to
rise during the late morning/early afternoon hours. Have trended
down temperatures just a few degrees in central MO where the low
clouds may be more persistent, and will just watch trends over-
night and into tomorrow morning.

Frontal passage Thursday is still expected during the afternoon,
which will allow temperatures to rise into the 60s to possibly
near 70 degrees before fropa occurs. Drizzle and low clouds are
again possible in the morning, but should mix out and allow for at
least scattered sunshine ahead of the front. A few showers are
possible along the front, but the best coincidence of moisture/
lift will occur just south of the CWA, and have kept PoPs low to
nominal in all but central MO. Colder air will filter in over-
night, pushing highs on Friday to below-normal readings in the
30s.

A quick recovery to more seasonable temperatures will follow the
rest of the weekend, then the early week forecast for next week
remains muddy with multiple changes to time/position of the
eventual cold frontal passage and its associated upper trough.
Earlier runs of the GFS and EC had the surface front through on
Monday morning, making the last day of the extended holiday
weekend a damp and chilly day, but recent runs of the EC again
slow the frontal progression. Will continue to monitor and allow
"wintry mix" to be mentioned in the extended until better refined.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1126 PM CST TUE FEB 13 2018

This period will be a difficult forecast as moist warm air moves
north into our area this morning. The TAFs will start out VFR but
as cooling temperature meet warming dewpoints the chance for fog
formation increases. Currently it appears the fog chances may be
best along the Missouri River north of the KC Metro area, but
confidence on exact positioning is low. The second issue that
will occur with this push of moisture from the south will be a
low IFR ceiling as surface temperatures warm after sunrise. This
will increase winds and lift any fog into a stratus deck keeping
IFR conditions through the mid morning. Eventually enough warming
will occur that the lower levels will start to clear out from the
ground up lifting IFR ceilings to MVFR ceilings. These MVFR
ceilings are expected to clear quickly with VFR conditions and a
strong sustained southerly wind in the 10-15kt range. This wind
will start to dissipate around sunrise with VFR conditions for the
remainder of the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...Barham



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