Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 251052
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
552 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

Little change to the going forecast with the exception of a
potentially cooler upcoming weekend compared to earlier model
solutions. A relatively tranquil, early fall-like weather pattern
continues for the next few days. Surface high pressure will remain
in control through Wednesday with dry conditions and below normal
temperatures. In fact, maximum readings will only increase a couple
degrees each day through Thursday. Moisture through the vertical
column will remain low, providing continued mostly sunny skies for
the area.

High pressure will begin to lose its grip over the area by Thursday,
with increasing moisture creeping back into the area. Warm air
advection and increasing ascent from an approaching initial upper
wave will provide a chance for convection Thursday night. Model
soundings show a considerable amount of dry air remaining below H7,
so elevated convection may initially struggle. As additional
saturation/moisture transport occurs and a second wave rotates into
the area increasing large scale ascent, chances for thunderstorms
will increase along/ahead an associated cold front on Friday. Models
have been fairly consistent with this feature and timing. Several
model solutions tend to hold up an H85 low near the forecast area
into the weekend, keeping cooler air in place and keeping the
thermal axis further west. This would result in a cooler weekend
than originally expected if such scenario plays out. Eventually, a
return to near-normal temperatures should occur early next work
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 548 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

Shallow river fog has yet to materialize at STJ this morning, and
with still some dewpoint depression and warmer air temperatures than
last night, pessimistic that persistent visibility restrictions will
develop. Still, could see some patchy fog form through 13Z, and have
accounted for such with MVFR temporary conditions. Otherwise, VFR
conditions expected through the period at terminals.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair



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