Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 152336
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
636 PM CDT Wed Mar 15 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 240 PM CDT WED MAR 15 2017

The main story in this forecast issuance will be above normal
temperatures; otherwise, quiet and dry conditions are expected
through the majority of the period. An expanse of cloud cover and
chilly (but departing) high pressure have kept temperatures well
below normal today; however, after one more chilly night, strongly
increasing temperatures aloft and increasing southwest winds will
help temperatures rise into the 50s to near 60 degrees Thursday
afternoon even with some stratus redeveloping later in the day.
Afternoon sun and continued rising temperatures aloft under the
eastward-edging upper ridge will bring temperatures near 70
degrees on Friday, even as a weak cold front slides through.

Two such "cold fronts" will push through the area over the next
few days; the first on Friday and the next on Monday. The overall
longwave pattern will tend to track the parent shortwave troughs
supporting these fronts off to our east, which will keep the best
forcing and following coldest air east of the CWA. Precipitation
chances with both of these systems are quite low, being limited by
the separation of forcing and the limited moisture return ahead of
the systems, so really do not expect any precipitation until at
least middle next week. Right now, no day stands out as a slam
dunk fire weather day; however, both Monday and Tuesday will need
to be watched with somewhat breezy conditions and RHs currently
forecast to bottom out in the 30 percent range.

By the end of the forecast period, deeper southwest flow and the
potential for a more active pattern develops. Can`t hang our hats
on any one day yet, but a wetter and stormier pattern is possible
by late next work week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT WED MAR 15 2017

VFR conditions to dominate through the overnight hours with light
southeast winds of 3-7 kts prevailing. Concerns for MVFR cigs
begin to increase after the 15z timeframe as low-level moisture
increases in strengthening warm air advection. For now, have
elected to offer non-restrictive cigs just above MVFR thresholds
until later model runs arrive. This should lead to increased
confidence for possible restrictions during the late morning and
afternoon hours.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Thursday for
     MOZ014>017-022>025-031>033-039-040-046.

&&

$$

Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...32



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