Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 272348
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
548 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016
Issued at 231 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2016
A jet max and upper level short wave has exited the rockies helping
to develop a surface low over western Nebraska. The resulting
pressure gradient over Kansas and Missouri and has formed a strong
LLJ (60-70mph) over eastern Kansas moving into Missouri creating an
area of isentropic accent over the KS/MO border area and scattered
showers with some embedded isolated thunderstorms. The mixing layer
is not very deep (2,000ft), but with 35-40mph of wind just above the
surface, higher southerly winds 20-25mph and gusts of 30-35mph are
likely until the cold front pushes through late Monday morning.
Ahead of the cold front over central Kansas, a line of showers has
developed and will continue to advect to the east into the MO/KS
keeping likely PoPs in the grids through 03-04Z. The western portion
of the CWA will start to clear out while PoPs will remain over the
eastern CWA with the boundary stalling in that area. A weak minor
short wave moves along the boundary in the afternoon Monday creating
a chance of convection over this region and subsequent increased
PoPs, but will move east by Monday evening.
The low pressure system causing weather Sunday into Monday moves to
the north and stalls over western Minnesota leaving the region on
the poleward side of a large amplitude long wave through Thursday
before it finally moves over the Great Lakes. With no real lift or
moisture over the region the area will remain dry for the foreseeable
future. This low will finally advect colder air into the region
Wednesday dropping temperature below seasonal norms with highs in
the low to mid 40s and lows well below freezing through Saturday.
Sunday the model have significantly different solutions with the GFS
indicating almost all precipitation will remain well to the south,
but the ECMWF has some of that moisture to the south pull up into
the region with a short wave pushing through the midwest. With the
uncertainty PoPs have been left out of the forecast, but it will
need to be watched as colder air will be in place and if the ECMWF
solution pans out mixed precipitation or snow would be possible.
.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2016
Band of showers from north central into west central MO will track
quickly east this evening and exit out of the forecast area by 03z.
Could see some upstream redevelopment of showers and isolated
thunderstorms over north central KS which could move through
northwest MO between 03z-06z. Will also be monitoring for convective
development to the southwest which could affect parts of west
central and central MO after 09z through Monday morning. Very strong
and gusty southerly winds in the wake of the current showers over
western MO will spread east this evening. Winds will gradually begin
to subside by the pre-dawn hours as the low-level jet shifts east
towards eastern MO.
Otherwise, MVFR ceilings now over eastern KS through northeast into
central MO will likely persist through most of the overnight hours.
Should see a general west to east clearing with the passage of a
surface trough on Monday.