Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 180437

1137 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2014

Issued at 354 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

The overall theme for this forecast package is a quiet and dry
period with seasonal temperatures. The upper level pattern will be
dominated by a general trough over the eastern U.S. and an upper
trough over the Rockies. The eastern trough will be invigorated by
additional energy dropping into its base resulting in a deep closed
upper low by Tuesday night or Wednesday. The GFS is now in close
agreement with the ECMWF which had been the preferred model.

A deep surface low over southeast Canada will maintain northerly
winds across the Midwest through Saturday before the Plains high
pressure forces its way eastward. Cold air advection will continue
over the CWA on Saturday with below average temperatures. The
western edge of wrap around stratocu will likely affect northeast MO
and could prove challenging on cloud and temperature forecasts.
Warmer weather will spread back into the CWA for Sunday and Monday.
A moderately strong shortwave trough is expected to dive southeast
through the Upper MS Valley and western Great Lakes Sunday night and
Monday. An accompanying cold front will sweep through the region on
Monday but the cold air advection will lag some allowing
temperatures to remain above average.

Some question that the mid week model temperatures may have too much
of a cool bias. But even allowing for a slightly warmer ECMWF
solution only results in temperatures a couple degrees higher than
the forecast. Given the potential for a more easterly component to
the boundary layer winds, which greatly limits warming for us and the
amount of warm air advection mid clouds on Thursday will go with the
model blend for now.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period. Winds out
of the northwest will veer to the northeast throughout the afternoon
and into the evening hours as surface high pressure transitions
eastward. Have let KSTJ MVFR steam fog remain for now. Sufficient
overnight temperature difference between KSTJ and the nearby river
present the case for fog, but development may not occur if winds are
stronger than expected.




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