Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 091723

1223 PM CDT Wed Apr 9 2014

Issued at 926 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014

Have added another row of counties to the going Red Flag Warning. The
forecast remains mostly on track but did adjust downward slightly the
dewpoints and increased slightly the temperatures in our east. This
brought minimum humidity values to less than 25% across the entire
forecast area. However, the farther south and east in the forecast
area, the farther away from the relatively tighter pressure gradient
between the eastward departing surface ridge and lee trough over the
Plains. So the winds, both sustained and gusts, will not be as strong
as areas to the north and west. Also, there has been some greening of
the native grasses, particularly the farther south one goes in the
state. And given the the lighter winds, it should mitigate extreme
fire behavior in our south and east.


Issued at 400 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014

Short Term (Today through Friday night):

The main concern in the short tern will revolve around critical fire
weather conditions today. Early this morning, a ridge of surface
high pressure resides over the area but will quickly slide to the
southeast this morning. Meanwhile, a weak upper level shortwave will
slide across the Canadian Plains pushing a cold front into the
northern Plains. This will tighten the pressure gradient across the
region and winds will pick up 15-25 knot with gusts as high as 35
knots. This will allow temperatures to soar into the upper 60s to
upper 70s. Couple the warm temperatures with dewpoints in the low to
mid 30s and relative humidity values will drop to 20-30%. This will
lead to critical fire weather values to be met over most of the CWA
and thus a Red Flag Warning has been expanded to cover all but the
southeastern CWA (although fire danger will still be elevated in
those locations) from Noon until 7PM.

Winds will remain strong through the evening before the
aforementioned cold front begins to sink into the area after
midnight. The cold front will sink through the forecast area through
the morning hours with a dry frontal passage. Winds will be moderate
out of the north keeping temperatures cooler than on Wednesday with
highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Thursday evening high pressure
will move into the area however, overnight a weak upper level
shortwave will move into the region an may provide enough forcing
for a few showers across the northwestern CWA. Also, overnight
Thursday, a LLJ will get cranked up across the southern Plains. This
will override the cold front (south of the CWA) that moved through
earlier in the day and showers will be possible north of the cold
front after midnight Thursday into Friday morning. As such, have
chance POPs across the southern CWA. Skies should clear by Friday
afternoon with winds picking up from south and highs should again
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Long Term (Saturday - Tuesday):

The first half of this period continues to look unsettled. Flow will
be quasi-zonal across the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS on Saturday as
an upper level trough drops into the northern Rockies. This will
force a cold front through the Plains on Saturday. Models are in
good agreement that thunderstorms will develop across northwestern
MO and northeastern KS ahead of the front as an upper level
shortwave ejects out ahead of the main upper trough. Another short
wave is progged to move through Saturday night continuing
thunderstorm chances across the entire CWA as the front pushes into
the region. By Sunday the front will bisect the CWA. South of the
front instability thunderstorms will continue while later in the day
the upper level trough swings through the CWA. This will bring the
chance for yet another round of showers an thunderstorm to the
northern CWA late Sunday into Sunday night. Showers will exit the
region early Monday but temperatures Monday will be much cooler than
over the weekend with highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Big
difference in model guidance leads to a low confidence forecast for
the end of the period. The EC keep the area under northwest flow
behind the upper level trough whereas the GFS flow reverts to the
zonal pattern. As such, have left the values inherited by the
initialization intact.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the entire period. The main
aviation concern will be relatively strong and gusty winds this
afternoon from the southwest. Winds will diminish some overnight, but
likely remain greater than 12 kts from the southwest. A bigger issue
will a developing strong low level jet which will lead to LLWS at the
terminals from late tonight through tomorrow morning. A cold front
will moving through the region tomorrow morning with winds eventually
becoming north. The impact from LLWS will end as the front moves
through as the stronger winds aloft will be shunted eastward through
the morning.


Issued at 402 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014

High pressure will shift southeast this morning as a front drops into
the northern Plains...this will allow the pressure gradient to tighten
across the area. Winds will pick up out of the southwest by mid
morning between 15 to 25 MPH with gusts to 35 MPH. Temperatures will
soar into the upper 60s to upper 70s as dewpoints remain in the low
to mid 30s this will lead to relative humidity values in the 20-25%
range. As such, critical fire weather conditions will be reached and a
Red Flag Warning has been issue from Noon through 7PM today.


KS...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-

MO...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ001>008-



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