000
FXUS63 KEAX 220431
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1131 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 338 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2017

Hot afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s and a
modified gulf airmass remain firmly in place this afternoon. A quiet
weather night appears to be in the works as the majority of
thunderstorm activity should be confined to central Kansas into
Nebraska where a low-level thermal axis and deeper moisture reside.
With little upper support, convective maintenance overnight is a low
probability and storm motions do not favor reaching our area before
activity should dissipate. Another hot day is expected Thursday,
with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s with similar heat indicies
as today. The primary focus will center on thunderstorm chances
Thursday night into Friday morning as a cold front associated with
an upper wave across the northern CONUS pushes through the forecast
area. Storms are anticipated to develop along the boundary as it
sinks southward during the afternoon and evening hours. The initial
activity will have the greatest potential to be severe, and these
storms will be located north of Missouri. There is also some
potential that convection will struggle to break the cap, and if
this occurs, rain/storms that do develop will be confined to a
post-frontal regime. With the timing of the front, potential cap
issues, and the area of greatest support/shear residing to the
northeast of the area, the overall severe weather potential
appears marginal at this time. The greatest likelihood for a few
strong storms should be closest to the Iowa border during the
evening hours Thursday.

Thereafter, surface high pressure builds into the area Friday
through the weekend. This should result in generally dry conditions
and slightly below normal temperatures. A warming trend commences
early next work week as the surface high shifts to the east, with
temperatures retuning to near normal levels by mid-week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1127 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast. A thunderstorm
cluster in northern KS/southern NE that is slowly tracking to the
east/southeast is expected dissipate with only some very light
lingering showers possible making it into northwestern MO tomorrow
morning. Otherwise, the front that should be the focus for
additional showers and storms late in this forecast or with the
12Z issuance, should stay north of the terminals through 06Z. So
have kept this forecast dry. As mentioned, some mention of
showers/storms may be needed with the 12Z forecast for late in the
forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Blair
Aviation...CDB