Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 210458
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1058 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 315 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2017

The first in a series of upper level waves associated with an active
Pacific pattern and general troughing over the Northwest has
moved through. Despite this, little has changed as the area
remains in a southerly moist advection regime, maintaining the
low clouds. Another wave move will across the area tonight,
helping to lift a warm front northward and shifting winds to the
southwest. This transition will be gradual, from south to north,
but should help scour out the low clouds and fog. With regards to
fog, it looks like another round of fog will develop across the
northern third of the forecast area. Have held off on any fog
advisory for tonight as probabilities of dense fog are lower and
the timing of improved conditions is uncertain that far north.

Another wave will track south of the area Saturday as deeper
troughing develops over the center of the country. It looks like
with the wave passing well south, any affect would be minor with
perhaps some light rain in our far southern zones. Ridging builds
into the area Sunday and Monday, which will help keep the area
dry. But a strong upper system then moves across the area Tuesday
and Tuesday night. Models continue to show a northern track to
this system, keeping the forecast area on the warm side of the
storm until the surface low has passed by. So for now, it looks
accumulating snow would stay north of the area, into Nebraska and
Iowa. The ECMWF is a little further south than the GFS and does
bring some minor wrap around moisture into northern Missouri. For
late in the week, cooler than normal temperatures can be expected
as colder high pressure builds into the region behind the
departing storm system.

Beyond the scope of this forecast, it looks like the gates holding
back the cold air open and Arctic air plunges back into the
region. The upper pattern becomes very amplified with a large
ridge over the eastern Pacific allowing for deep troughing over
eastern North America. This pattern allows the Arctic air to spill
into the region.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1057 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2017

Currently there is large area of IFR and LIFR ceilings and
visibility from STJ up to the Iowa border with some patchy areas
of fog forming up south of that location. Clouds are expected to
advect north of the region leaving clear skies over the area
currently seeing VFR conditions. This will set up a scenario of
fog forming up towards the sunrise timeframe. Fog is expected to
start forming around 08Z with the max impacts of IFR visibility
and possible ceilings being from 13-17Z at MCI. This fog bank is
expected to clear out quicker that it has the last few days from
the south to north with VFR conditions expected by 18Z for all
locations.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for KSZ102.

MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for MOZ001>008-
     011>016-020.

&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...Barham/Leighton



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