199
FXUS63 KEAX 121711
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1211 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...18z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Isolated afternoon showers and storms Saturday and Sunday, mainly
  south of I-70.
    - No strong/severe storms expected.

* More widespread showers and storms Monday into Tuesday and
  Wednesday.
    - Locally heavy rainfall possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

The weak front that helped to trigger storms yesterday afternoon/
evening, will stall just south of the forecast area, across
southeastern KS and southern MO. This frontal zone will be the focus
for what looks like isolated showers and storms this afternoon and
evening. With cooler and drier conditions today, CAPE values won`t
be as high as yesterday with around 1500 to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE during
the afternoon. Shear also remains weak so any shower or storm that
develops will be relatively weak with short-lived updrafts.
It`s possible that these relatively weak showers and storms
persist into the overnight hours. With the front stalled in the
area providing some forcing mechanism, models show a weak
shortwave trough moving into the area as well. This provides
additional forcing, potentially helping to sustain storms into
the overnight hours. Coverage of showers and storms Sunday will
be dependent on how the overnight activity evolves. More
widespread activity overnight could lead to cloud cover
lingering longer and inhibiting destabilization during the day.
This then limits the potential for additional showers and
storms. For now, have some chance PoPs mentioned for areas along
and south I-70. Like with today, shear is weak and combined
with the weaker instability, the threat of severe or even strong
storms looks very low.

Monday and Tuesday, models show a system moving into the area from
eastern OK. This shows up well in 700mb and 500mb vorticity and
height fields. It looks like a shortwave, currently moving into the
Southern High Plains, and helping to lead to widespread
convection in western KS and OK, will eventually move eastward
across OK and eventually into southeastern KS and MO. It`s
possible that the ongoing convection will help to enhance the
mid-level vorticity and strengthen the circulation is it shifts
east, very akin to or possibly even an MCV. Precipitable water
values climb to over 2 inches as this system moves into the
area. So as forcing associated with this wave moves into the
area, we could see showers and storms with locally heavy
rainfall. Forecast soundings for the southern portions of the
forecast area show tall, skinny CAPE with low LCLs and high
freezing levels. This suggest potential for efficient rainfall
in any showers and storms that develop. Given this is still a
day 3-4 forecast, chance PoPs look reasonable. There are a few
ensemble members that are showing 24hr rain totals in excess of
2- 2.5 inches in our southern zones. There`s even a GEFS member
showing in excess of 5 inches in 24hrs ending Wednesday evening.
I suspect we`ll see QPF increased in the next few days as
higher resolution guidance works into the blended model,
increasing confidence in the potential for locally heavy rain
amounts.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Periods of MVFR ceilings will be the main concern within this
TAF issuance. With recent rains and cooler temperatures,
blossoming cumulus field has yielded anywhere from FEW to BKN
MVFR ceilings, largely around 2kft currently. Do expect ceilings
to continue to rise with diurnal heating, but there are also
pockets of thicker MVFR cloud cover within the CU field, making
it a bit difficult to time and assess potential impacts to TAF
sites. This most directly affects the KC Metro sites,
KMCI/KMKC/KIXD. With expectation for improvement, have generally
gone with SCT mentions at KSTJ/KMCI/KMKC, but do have prevailing
BKN020 at KIXD for a couple more hours with a thicker deck
overhead and in the vicinity visible on satellite. Winds tending
to be light out of the north, becoming more variable this
evening and through remainder of the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Curtis