Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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311
FXUS63 KEAX 141151
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
551 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 239 AM CST THU DEC 14 2017

Cloud coverage increasing over the area this morning as moisture
associated with a backdoor cold front continues to overspread the
area. Abundant cloud cover combined with continued cold air
advection will lead to noticeably cooler temperatures today as
highs barely reach the lower 40s. Main item of interest in the
near-term involves another compact shortwave seen on water vapor
imagery across western North Dakota this morning. With time today,
this feature will continue tracking southeast in northwest flow
aloft, with fcst models still indicating light QPF development
across the Central Plains later this afternoon. Trends in recent
days have been a gradual decrease in the amount of precip
associated with this wave, and this morning`s runs continue this
trend. In fact, quick look at NAM and GFS BUFKIT profiles show
very limited lift by the time the wave moves through our area,
further suggesting this feature will have little impact aside from
passing sprinkles or flurries across the western CWA later
tonight. Activity, if it comes to fruition, should largely be over
by midnight with persistent cloud cover providing enough of a
blanket to prevent lows Friday morning from dropping beyond the
mid to upper 20s.

Pattern shift to get underway on Friday as western U.S. ridge
begins to breakdown and a zonal flow develops downstream over the
Plains. This should lead to increasing flow over the Rockies and
leeside trough development through the day on Friday, with
southwesterly flow redeveloping in a warm air advection regime
downstream over the Plains. This should result in warmer
temperatures with upper 40s possible across the western zones,
while lingering cloud cover keeps areas further to the east in the
lower 40s. In any event, Saturday should be a fairly nice day
with continued southwest flow allowing temps to warm into the
lower to middle 50s for most.

Next chance for precip set to arrive late Saturday night with
continuation into Sunday as southwestern U.S. trough tracks east-
northeast from the Southern Plains. This feature will tap into
Gulf moisture with latest fcst runs suggesting precip will have
little issue extending north into our area. Precip should largely
fall in the form of rain, however a RA/SN mix will be possible
Sunday evening as system tracks off to the east and colder air
filters in from the northwest. Beyond this, much of next week
looks dry as successive waves move through the Southwest and
result in precipitation downstream over the Southern Plains and
Deep South. Meanwhile, our area will once again be caught between
the northern and southern storm tracks, effectively negating much
chance for precip extending north into our area. We may have to
wait until the end of the week for the next chance for precip as
moisture lifts north along a cold front currently progged to move
through our area next Friday. So far, this late fall season has
been nothing but dry for the lower Missouri Vly, and if this
trend continues, we could be looking at a fairly active winter
fire season as fuels continue to dry out.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 551 AM CST THU DEC 14 2017

A challenging forecast as low stratus has overspread the area;
with the main question being whether MVFR cigs develop later this
morning. Upstream obs over north-central MO and points northeast
have largely stayed VFR, which is supported by the majority of the
latest model guidance. As such, have removed MVFR mention for now
based on lower confidence than previous forecasts. In any event,
BKN-OVC cigs between 035-050 to predominate much of the day and
early overnight, with conditions possibly deteriorating to MVFR
early Friday morning after 06z. Winds through the period will
remain from the northwest between 5-10 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...32



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