Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 171723
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1223 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today and Monday/

Dense cloud cover continues to blanket much of the region, but
some sunshine is attempting to peek through across portions of
the area. A cold front is currently draped across North Texas and
will continue moving south through the afternoon. The front will
mostly go unnoticed, outside of a slight increase in winds, with
wind speeds near 10-15 mph and gusts up to 20-25 mph. Afternoon
temperatures will peak in the 60s.

Scattered showers and perhaps a few storms will move into western
Central Texas around mid afternoon and continue east through the
evening. Drier air will be filtering in behind the cold front,
which should keep the rain chances confined to areas south of the
I-20 corridor. The potential for thunder will decrease as this
activity nears I-35, with all showers eventually exiting to the
east shortly after sunset. Clouds will gradually scatter out
through the remainder of the night with temperatures bottoming out
mostly in the 40s.

Monday will be slightly cooler in the wake of the cold front;
however, sunshine will finally return following our prolonged
period of cloudy skies. High temperatures will range from the mid
50s along the Red River to mid 60s in Central Texas with a steady
north/northwest wind around 10-15 mph.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 310 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024/
/Tuesday through the weekend/

By Tuesday morning, with surface high pressure directly over
North and Central Texas, the cool/dry airmass in the wake of
Sunday`s cold frontal passage coupled with diminishing winds and
clearing skies should yield the coldest morning of the week. In
general, temperature minimums in the mid 30s to lower 40s are
expected. However, NBM temperature probabilities indicate a
30-50% chance that parts of the northeast CWA (particularly
portions of Fannin, Lamar, Delta, Hunt and Hopkins Co(s) could see
temperatures at or below freezing by daybreak. Likely owing to
our proximity to the surface high and potential for radiational
cooling to overachieve, the NBM has been trending cooler with each
run over the few days. Residents in these areas should consider
covering or bringing sensitive plants indoors during this time
with the onset of the growing season and arrival of astronomical
Spring on the 22nd.

Temperatures more typical of mid March will begin to gradually
return on Tuesday as low level winds veer to the south/southwest
and the post-frontal airmass quickly moderates while weak upper
level ridging prevails. A few shortwave disturbances embedded
within the subtropical branch of the westerlies will traverse
across South Texas from northern Mexico, leading to increased
cloudiness across the Texas Coastal Plains. As these clouds
encroach from the southwest, a subtle gradient in temperatures is
likely to develop over North and Central Texas Tuesday afternoon
while daytime warming is tempered. The southwestern 1/3rd of our
forecast area will likely see afternoon temperatures hovering in
the low/mid 60s while the rest of the region warms into the upper
60s to lower 70s.

Late Tuesday into Wednesday, the stagnant blocking upper level
high over the Pacific NW will finally begin to break down in
response to a kicker upper trough originating from the Aleutian
Low over the Gulf of Alaska. As a result, the southwest upper low
that has taken up residence primarily over Arizona for many days
now will transition into an open wave as it transits through the
Four Corners region. By Wednesday afternoon, the open trough will
begin to eject eastward across the Southern Plains sending a
surface low across the state. Large-scale ascent ahead of the
trough and modestly favorable low and mid-level moisture and
associated instability will support the onset scattered showers
and thunderstorms beginning Wednesday afternoon with the best
chances arriving early Thursday morning. However, the potential
for severe weather is still likely to be tempered by modest
buoyancy and weak vertical shear. Still, the threat for stronger
storms with hail and downburst winds can`t be overlooked.

In general, 0.25" to 0.75" of rainfall is expected over this 48
hour period with lesser amounts west of Highway 281. Though
rainfall amounts aren`t overly impressive at this time, the recent
widespread multi-day rainfall event could allow localized
runoff/flash flooding issues to evolve, especially across parts
of North Texas where rainfall totals over the last 14 days are
averaging as much as 1-2" above normal. Despite the periods of
clouds and rain, temperatures during the latter part of the week
will be at or slightly above seasonable values with highs in the
70s areawide both Thursday and Friday.

12

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR ceilings will prevail across D10, with KACT eventually
lifting to VFR within the next few hours. A cold front currently
draped across North Texas will continue making its way south this
afternoon. Winds are already out of the north at all TAF sites,
but a slight increase in wind speeds/gusts is expected for a few
hours behind the front. Wind speeds will be between 10-15 knots
with gusts around 20 knots.

Late this afternoon and into the evening, showers and a few
storms currently to our west will move east across Central Texas
and portions of North Texas. The thunder potential will decrease
as this activity nears the I-35 corridor, so have opted to only
mention VCSH in the TAFs. Drier air will be working its way into
the region behind the front by the time the showers arrive, so
most of this activity should remain south of the I-20 corridor and
potentially outside of D10. We`ll keep VCSH in the D10 TAFs for
now, but it`s possible it will be removed at a later issuance.

The drier air should scatter clouds through the remainder of the
night, with only a few passing cirrus expected on Monday. North
winds near 10-12 knots will prevail through the end of the TAF
period.

Barnes

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    68  45  61  41  68 /  10  10   0   0   0
Waco                67  48  63  40  63 /  40  30   0   0   0
Paris               66  40  57  34  65 /   5   5   0   0   0
Denton              66  40  60  36  68 /  10   5   0   0   0
McKinney            67  41  59  37  67 /   5   5   0   0   0
Dallas              68  45  61  41  67 /  10  10   0   0   0
Terrell             68  43  60  36  65 /  10  20   0   0   0
Corsicana           67  48  62  41  66 /  30  30   0   0   0
Temple              66  48  63  40  63 /  40  30   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       65  42  62  38  69 /  10  20   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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