Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
941 FXUS64 KFWD 290518 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1218 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonable conditions will continue through this upcoming week with highs in the 90s and heat indices up to 103 in many areas each afternoon. - There are low chances for storms most days this week, mainly during the afternoons. Best chances will be on Monday and Tuesday across North Texas. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Sunday and Sunday Night/ The easiest way to explain today`s weather is simply: a near repeat of yesterday. Quiet and seasonable weather is expected through Sunday night with some seabreeze-induced convection in our far south and southeastern counties this afternoon. Upper level high pressure will continue to dominate the region, even as a small shortwave trough approaches from our northwest later today. This shortwave will contribute to convection in the Texas Panhandle and parts of Oklahoma Sunday night into Monday morning, but all of this precipitation is expected to remain well outside of our area. The only chances for rain/storms we have in our area will be in our far south and southeastern counties where there is about a 20% of isolated to scattered seabreeze convection this afternoon. Severe weather is not expected, but lightning and gusty winds can be expected with any afternoon storms. Otherwise, expected a mix of high clouds and afternoon cumulus through the period. High temperatures today will range from the lower 90s in our southeast to the upper 90s in our northwest. Heat index values will largely range from 99-103 degrees this afternoon which could result in heat related illnesses for those who have to be or choose to be outside during peak heating. Overnight lows will be in the lower to mid 70s Sunday night. JLDunn && .LONG TERM... /Issued 239 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025/ /Sunday Evening Onward/ Better rain chances will return to North Texas over the first half of this upcoming week. A digging shortwave disturbance will move along the Canada/US border, sending a cold front south through the Plains early in the week. This front will likely stall near the Red River, and become an area of more focused convective development through Wednesday. The overall severe threat is low at this time, but we cannot rule out a stronger storm or two capable of strong, erratic wind gusts mainly Monday night into Tuesday. The front will eventually retreat northward as a warm front in response to building high pressure across the Southern Plains. The burgeoning ridge will lessen rain chances over the late week, with only an isolated potential Wednesday and Thursday. Per latest long-term guidance, a disturbance is progged to move from Mexico into Texas towards the end of the week. This weakness in the upper ridge will allow for continued low chances for precipitation as we go into the July 4th holiday. All ensemble clusters now have precipitation on July 4th, but the exact locations are up in the air. We`ll continue to monitor incoming guidance and refine rain chances and locations as we get closer in time to the day. Otherwise, expect continued warm and humid mornings with seasonable afternoons through this upcoming week. Morning lows will bottom out in the 70s, with afternoon highs peaking mainly in the 90s. Persistent dewpoints in the 60s and 70s will make it feel even hotter outside, with daily heat indices in the 90s to around 103. Make sure to stay cool and hydrated. Prater && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /06Z TAFs/ VFR conditions will prevail through the period, except for another brief period of MVFR cigs this morning at KACT. A broken deck of stratus with cigs between 2-3 kft will likely overspread KACT briefly between the hours of 13-15Z. A few strands of low level stratus may also be seen at the Metroplex airports through late morning, but coverage will be minimal with no impacts. Otherwise, today will be a near repeat of yesterday with south to southeast winds less than 12 kts, occasional high clouds, and scattered afternoon cumulus. Seabreeze induced convection is expected to remain south of KACT, but could impact southerly departure routes from mid to late afternoon. On Monday morning, the winds will shift more to the southwest. JLDunn && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected today. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 78 96 78 96 77 / 0 0 5 20 20 Waco 75 95 75 95 75 / 0 0 0 10 10 Paris 75 93 75 93 73 / 0 5 5 20 30 Denton 77 96 76 96 73 / 0 0 5 20 20 McKinney 77 96 77 96 76 / 0 0 5 20 20 Dallas 78 96 78 98 77 / 0 0 5 20 20 Terrell 75 94 75 96 74 / 0 0 0 20 20 Corsicana 76 95 76 96 76 / 0 5 0 10 10 Temple 74 96 74 96 73 / 0 10 5 10 10 Mineral Wells 75 98 75 97 73 / 0 0 5 30 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$