Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
000
FXUS64 KFWD 161746
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1246 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
...New Short Term, Aviation...
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Weekend/
Showers and thunderstorms have blossomed across the region with an
increase in coverage expected through the remainder of the
afternoon as this activity slowly moves east. While the threat for
severe storms is low today, an isolated strong to marginally
severe storm can`t be ruled out across Central Texas, and the
primary threats would be hail and gusty winds. Further north,
lightning will be the main concern, but small hail will be
possible with any stronger storms. Additionally, rainfall rates
will peak mid to late afternoon, with PW values nearing or
potentially exceeding the climatological daily maximum. Therefore,
heavy rainfall will result in a low threat for flooding today,
especially across the urban DFW Metroplex as well as Central
Texas where moisture will be most abundant. The rain and cloud
cover will keep us cool through the remainder of the afternoon,
with high temperatures in the 50s across the west to mid 60s
across the east.
Most of the showers and storms will shift into Central Texas
tonight, but we could see a few showers linger across North Texas
overnight. The arrival of another shortwave trough will result in
the development of additional showers and thunderstorms on
Sunday. Most of this activity will be confined to Central Texas,
but we`ll carry some 20-30% PoPs for portions of North Texas
mainly Sunday afternoon. A reinforcing cold front will eventually
arrive late Sunday afternoon and will begin to gradually shift
rain chances further south as drier air filters in behind the
front. Rainfall totals through late Sunday afternoon will average
between 1/4" and 2" with isolated areas receiving as high as
3-4". The best chance for these higher totals will be across
Southeast Texas.
Barnes
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 244 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024/
/Next Week/
After multiple days of rainfall, the last week of astronomical
winter will begin with cool but benign conditions as weak mid
level ridging remains over West Texas. At the surface, broad high
pressure (of Canadian origin) will build southward through the
Central US reinforcing the seasonably cool airmass already in
place. With highs generally in the lower 60s, Monday will be the
coolest day of the week in most areas. Cold air advection in the
wake of Sunday`s reinforcing cold front and clear skies will push
lows into the mid 30s to lower 40s by daybreak Tuesday. The
surface high will reach the Central Gulf coast early Tuesday
resulting in the return of southerly surface winds. In addition to
gradual moisture recovery, temperatures will also trend warmer
through the end of the work week with highs back in the 70s
areawide on Thursday.
By late Tuesday, the upstream blocking regime will finally begin
to break down as the upper-level low over Arizona transitions into
an open wave. The remnants of the weakening low, eventually
becoming a modestly amplified wave, will lift through the Four
Corners region on Wednesday and then emerge into the Plains by
early Thursday. Induced cyclogenesis in the lee of the southern
Rockies will lead to a slight uptick in wind speeds as the surface
gradient tightens. Instability and moisture should be sufficient
for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Wednesday and
Thursday as the low and associated cold front push across the
state. At this time the risk for severe weather appears low. This
front will not carry the same cool down as we will see at the
beginning of the next week with temperatures forecast to be at or
slightly above seasonable values on Friday and into the weekend.
12
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/
Showers and thunderstorms continue across much of North and
Central Texas, and we should continue to see a slight uptick in
coverage over the next few hours. A few of the stronger storms may
be capable of producing small hail, but severe weather is not
expected. Widespread IFR ceilings are being observed across the
region, but ceilings will continue to fluctuate between IFR/LIFR
across D10 through the remainder of the afternoon. A lull in
shower and thunderstorm activity is expected late this evening,
but VCTS has been introduced to the KACT TAF Sunday morning as our
next round of showers and storms develops.
Ceilings are expected to improve to low MVFR Sunday morning across
D10 but will remain IFR at KACT likely through the end of the
current TAF period. VFR may return to D10 as early as 19Z
tomorrow; however, this could change as some of the shower and
thunderstorm activity in Central Texas may reach the Metroplex
sometime tomorrow. Confidence in timing/location was too low to
include this in the TAFs at this time.
Barnes
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 64 57 67 47 62 / 90 50 20 5 0
Waco 65 59 67 48 62 / 90 80 30 10 0
Paris 67 55 67 42 58 / 70 50 10 0 0
Denton 63 52 66 42 61 / 90 40 20 5 0
McKinney 65 54 66 43 60 / 90 50 20 5 0
Dallas 65 57 67 47 62 / 90 50 20 5 0
Terrell 67 57 67 45 61 / 90 70 20 5 0
Corsicana 67 60 67 49 64 / 90 80 30 10 0
Temple 66 58 66 48 64 / 90 80 30 10 0
Mineral Wells 61 52 65 44 64 / 100 30 20 10 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$