Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 080608 AAC
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
108 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

UPDATED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED FROM SOUTHERN MN TO THE U.P.
OF MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT..
GRADUALLY ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT TO DEVELOP
BY MORNING. OVERALL..A VERY TRANQUIL NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES..LIGHT WINDS AND COOL TEMPS..AND THE GOING FORECAST
HAS ALL OF THIS WELL IN HAND.

VIZ SAT IMAGERY REVEALED YET ANOTHER PESKY PLUME OF CANADIAN
WILDFIRE SMOKE EVIDENT FROM THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS INTO CENTRAL
MINNESOTA JUST BEFORE SUNSET..WHICH WAS ALSO CLEARLY EVIDENT IN
THE SW/W SKY FROM HERE AT THE WFO RIGHT AT SUNSET. AS THIS SMOKE
PLUME DRIFTS ENEWD OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY..CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
TO GET A BIT HAZY ONCE AGAIN. THE ONLY OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE WILL
BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER ON
WEDNESDAY..WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS OR T-STORMS OVER THE
FAR NORTH TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

MUCH QUIETER WEATHER TODAY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA AND COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND ANOTHER COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS TIME
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TO GET DOWN AROUND 40...AND MAINLY LOW TO MID
40S ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THE NORMAL COOL SPOTS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
CLOSE TO IF NOT JUST BELOW 40. WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE SLIDES FAR
ENOUGH SOUTHEAST TO ALLOW WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR TO FLOW INTO
THE AREA ON THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...ESPECIALLY AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT TO SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE WE WILL JUST HAVE WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER
HUMIDITY VALUES. MAX TEMPS 3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

A WEAK SFC FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER S/W WILL BE SLIDING EWD ACROSS
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE MINIMAL WITH THIS SYSTEM...THEREFORE
RAINFALL AMTS WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM LATE THUR AND FRI TO KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET. THE
NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE IN EARLY THIS
WEEKEND...BUT BE PUSHING INTO A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AND
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS...WHICH WILL INHIBIT THE AMT OF
PRECIPITATION AND THE EWD MOVEMENT OF THE PRECIP. PATTERN WILL
BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE LATER IN THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S AND 60S. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THROUGH THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN HOTTER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

MAINLY VFR CIGS AND VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT
FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AS SMOKE
AND AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP. EXPECT VSBYS IN THE 6 TO 9 MILE RANGE
DURING THE DAY AS SMOKE MIXES DOWN AT MOST SITES. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
CONTINUED THE VCTS AT INL AND INTRODUCED A FEW AREAS OF VCSH LATER
IN THE EVENING AS THE SHOWERS PUSH FARTHER SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  56  77  59  78 /  10  20   0  10
INL  53  77  56  81 /  20   0   0   0
BRD  56  79  59  81 /  10  10   0  10
HYR  54  77  57  78 /   0  10   0  10
ASX  55  75  58  79 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WFO DLH
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...TENTINGER
AVIATION...HUYCK



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