Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 252115
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
315 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE BANDED SNOW EVENT THAT IS
ONGOING.

CURRENTLY...BANDED LIGHT SNOW IS FALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A CLOUDY SKY WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING
IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES. NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH HAVE
DEVELOPED TODAY...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
TO 25 TO 30 MPH. THUS FAR...REPORTS COMING IN AND CALLS PLACED OUT
TO SEVERAL LOCATIONS REVEALS ANYWHERE FROM 0.5 INCHES TO NEARLY
3.0 INCHES OF SNOW HAS ALREADY FALLEN TODAY ACROSS THE
CWA...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 212. HAVE SHIFTED THE
SNOW/NO-SNOW LINE SOUTH OF MOBRIDGE...ABERDEEN...SISSETON AND
WHEATON TODAY...PLACING MORE OF A SHARP SNOW ACCUMS GRADIENT FROM
THERE TO THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF OUR BORDERS WITH UNR/FSD.

FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...ADDITIONAL BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND WORK ACROSS THE ADVISORY
AREA...OWING PRIMARILY TO THE COMBINATION OF MODERATELY STRONG
MID-LEVEL FORCING AND THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT PROVIDED BY A
SHORT-WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROF /AS SEEN
ON WATER VAPOR OVER EASTERN WYOMING/. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE TONIGHT
UNDERNEATH THESE SNOWBANDS. AND...WITH THERE BEING SOME AREAS
/EAST RIVER/ THAT HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES
UNDERNEATH THE PRELIMINARY BAND OF SNOW...COORDINATED THE
EXTENSION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH FSD A LITTLE BIT
FURTHER EAST AND NORTH...STILL ENDING AT 12Z FRIDAY. AGAIN...WIND
SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET OVERLY CRAZY WITH THIS EVENT...WITH
SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THE TYPICAL GROUND
LEVEL DRIFTING SNOW SHOULD END UP BEING MORE PREVALENT THAN A TRUE
"BLOWING SNOW" PHENOMENON...SO NO BLOWING SNOW WAS INCLUDED IN THE
WX GRIDS FOR TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. WITH DRY CONDITIONS BASICALLY
ASSUMING CONTROL OF THE WEATHER MAP ON FRIDAY...ATTENTION WILL
TURN TO TEMPERATURES. WITH LOW LEVEL CAA ONGOING...THE MERCURY
WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY FALL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD INCLUDE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW...AS WELL AS A RATHER DRASTIC COOL DOWN.

INITIALLY...WILL SEE AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
SATURDAY. H85 TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL DROP DOWN TO
AROUND -10C ALTHOUGH THE DEBATE IS TO WHETHER THIS SYSTEM WILL
HELP CLEAR US OUT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IS BRIEF WINDOW...SO
WHILE EXPECTING COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR...HAVE TEMPERED HIGHS/LOWS A
TAD.

WILL SEE A SECOND CUT OFF FORM FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. IN
BETWEEN WILL SEE THE BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST DIRECT
COLDER AIR INTO THE CONUS. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. H85 TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT AROUND -18C
TUESDAY AM...ALONG THE EDGE OF A 1050MB HIGH THAT MOVES OVER THE
EASTERN ROCKIES.

FOR THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK...THE PACIFIC/WESTERN CONUS RIDGE
REDEVELOPS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATING THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN.
WE MAY SEE A CLIPPER AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD
DRAW MILDER AIR IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEFORE A SECOND SHOT
AT ARCTIC AIR.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

KPIR...1-2SM VISBIES IN SNOW /OCCASIONALLY LOWER THAN THAT/ WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ON OCCASIONALLY BREEZY/GUSTY NORTH
WINDS. TOSSED IN SOME BLOWING SNOW MENTION...BUT MAJORITY OF
VISBIE REDUCTION HERE IS OWED TO FALLING SNOW. LOOK FOR MVFR/VFR
CIGS TO PERSIST AT KPIR THROUGH TOMORROW AS WELL.

KATY...CURRENTLY SEEING THE FIRST BAND OF SNOW WEAKENING...SO
PROBABLY WILL SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN 1-3SM VISBIES IN LIGHT
SNOW TO MORE LIKE P6SM VISBIES BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THIS CURRENT
BAND OF LIGHT SNOW DEPARTS. SHOULD STILL BE DEALING WITH MVFR/VFR
CIGS AT KATY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BEFORE
STRATUS WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH REACHES THE TERMINAL. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE NEXT BAND OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR
NEAR KATY BY AROUND 03Z...AND THEN LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY DROP
VISBIES BACK DOWN TO IFR RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

KABR/KMBG...THESE TERMINALS MAY EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT
FLURRIES OF SNOW OFF AND ON THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT THE PRIMARY
FLYING NUISANCE WILL BE MVFR /1000-2000FT AGL/ CIGS-PRODUCING
STRATUS WORKING DOWN FROM NODAK RIGHT NOW. THIS STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND THROUGH TOMORROW.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ FRIDAY FOR
     BUFFALO-CLARK-CODINGTON-HAMLIN-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-LYMAN-
     SPINK-STANLEY-SULLY.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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