Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 271513 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1013 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.UPDATE...REST OF TODAY

CURRENT FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES
NEEDED. INCREASED WIND SPEEDS A BIT AS SOUTH WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY...MORE SO ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. OTHERWISE...SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

LEE LOW/INVERTED TROF STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS AS AN UPPER TROF DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. NOT MUCH
OF A CHANGE TO THE PRESSURE PATTERN...SO WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND H85 READINGS ARE ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO OFF
YESTERDAYS PEAK. SUNDAY WILL SEE THE LEE LOW DEEPEN OVER
WYOMING...WITH THE INVERTED SURFACE TROF SLIDING ACROSS THE CWA.
WITH STABLE NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS TROF...MODELS
ARE BRINGING IN SOME STRATUS BELOW 5KFT. REMOVED MENTION OF ANY
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS LAYER IS NOT QUITE THICK ENOUGH
FOR DRIZZLE. ATMOSPHERE ABOVE THIS LAYER IS DRY...SUSPECT
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE CWA BEFORE MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS ON A TRANSITION TO A COOLER AND WETTER
PATTERN NEXT WEEK.

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE: MODERATE

A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO EJECT NEWD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 27.00Z RUNS OF THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION
OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THE
SYSTEM MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO IMPACT THE REGION /BY 12-24 HOURS/
WHICH IS PRETTY TYPICAL OF LARGE SYSTEMS.

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE
REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY WEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER...WITH AREAS IN THE EAST SEEING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME
DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN. A BETTER SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING/LIFT WILL AFFECT THE CWA ON MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LIKELY POPS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST
AREAS. QPF AMOUNTS DO NOT SEEM EXCESSIVE...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS PICK UP AN INCH OF RAINFALL BY
WED MORNING.

THE INITIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH PERHAPS A LULL IN THE PCPN...OR AT LEAST MORE
SCATTERED COVERAGE. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
DROP INTO THE DAKOTAS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
PRODUCE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY...GRADUALLY
COOLING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL /50S AND 60S/ BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THIS TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN TOWARDS SUNSET.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...FOWLE
AVIATION...FOWLE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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