Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 252042

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
342 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

After a relatively quiet stretch, an active and wet weather
pattern is in store for North Central Texas to close out the week
and into the upcoming Memorial Day Weekend.

Currently, the dryline has mixed east to a roughly Wichita Falls
to Abilene line early this afternoon based on surface observations.
Temperatures in this region have warmed into the upper 80s to near
90 F. Visible satellite loops show limited vertical growth in the
cumulus field in this region indicating that convective initiation
is not immediately likely. That being said, any storms that do
develop into this environment--characterized by MLCAPE values in
excess of 3000 J/kg and deep layer shear values near 30-40 kts--
would have the potential to become severe very quickly posing
mainly a risk for large hail and damaging winds.

Convection presently developing across the high terrain of Mexico
is expected to congeal into a cluster and track across the Hill
Country later this evening. Latest indications are that this
convection may impact southern parts of our CWA. It appears that
this activity should stay south of the metroplex tonight, and thus
have confined the highest PoPs (40%) to south of a roughly
Stephenville to Coriscana line.

Late tonight and into tomorrow morning, a lead shortwave--which
has been picked up for several days now by most NWP--is expected
to translate into southeastern Texas. Based on the consistency
seen in the past few runs of the ECMWF, have followed its timing
and show precip chances increasing during the 12-18Z time frame
tomorrow, which also agrees well with this morning`s run of the
Texas Tech WRF. This activity should be elevated and will likely
not pose much of a severe weather risk. At this time, think the
severe weather threat tomorrow will be tempered somewhat by 1)
relatively weak wind fields and 2) reduced lapse rates/instability
owing to morning showers/storms. One potential caveat in this
forecast: if this precipitation does not materialize during the
morning hours and we are able warm more than currently
anticipated, any convection that fires in the vicinity of the cold
front/dryline to the west would pose a greater severe weather
risk than presently advertised.

Profiles will moisten further Thursday night into Friday as the
brunt of a potent upper low approaches the region. It is during
this time frame that we are most concerned about a heavy rain and
flash flood threat, as PWAT values increase to around +2SD above
normal, combined with deep warm cloud layers promoting efficient
rain processes. However, because of uncertainties regarding the
position of a potential MCS near the Gulf of Mexico reducing the
poleward transport of moisture into the region, we have opted to
hold off on the issuance of a flash flood watch at this time. That
said, the risk for heavy rainfall with amounts of 2 to 4 inches
and locally higher (greatest amounts south and east of the
metroplex) exists late Thursday night and into Friday. Severe
weather will also be a possibility on Friday as wind profiles
increase ahead of the upper level low. There may be a conditional
tornado potential late Thursday night and into Friday as well,
given the deep tropical airmass in place and 0-1 km shear values
increasing into the 25 to 30 kt range.

A brief respite from the widespread showers and storms should then
occur on Saturday as the main area of ascent moves north and east
of the area. However, expect the weather to remain unsettled as
broad troughing takes hold over the Western CONUS.



/ISSUED 1237 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/
MVFR ceilings continue to cling to the forecast area but should
improve as we head later into the afternoon. The primary weather
feature we will be watching over the next 48 hours is an upper
low currently over Southern California. The system will swing east
into the Four-Corners region Thursday, then into the Plains
Friday. Multiple weak shortwaves in the southwest flow ahead of
the system will generate lift across parts the area this
afternoon, overnight tonight and Thursday. Convection will likely
develop along a dryline well west of the TAF locations late this
afternoon. There is a low potential that one of these storms will
head east towards the metroplex late this evening, but the current
thinking is that activity would weaken prior to reaching the DFW
area. We will need to keep our eyes on development and RADAR
trends as we head into the afternoon and evening hours.

Tonight, there is potential for a thunderstorm complex to affect
the southern counties as it treks east across South-Central
Texas, but it appears that this activity will remain south of the
metroplex. The KACT TAF will include a VCSH for early Thursday
Morning due to the potential for stratiform precip on the northern
edge of the activity to affect the Waco area.

Thursday...the strongest ascent thus far will arrive, likely
generating widespread showers and thunderstorms. At this time it
appears that storms will be most likely during the afternoon and
evening hours Thursday. The extended portion of the DFW TAF will
include a VCTS beginning 26/18Z.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    75  83  73  81  70 /  20  60  60  70  40
Waco                75  81  73  81  71 /  40  60  60  70  40
Paris               73  79  70  76  68 /  20  60  60  80  70
Denton              74  81  71  80  68 /  20  60  60  70  40
McKinney            74  81  72  79  69 /  20  60  60  70  50
Dallas              75  83  73  81  71 /  20  60  60  70  40
Terrell             74  82  73  79  70 /  20  60  50  80  60
Corsicana           75  80  73  79  71 /  30  70  60  80  50
Temple              75  80  72  81  71 /  40  60  60  70  40
Mineral Wells       74  81  71  84  67 /  30  50  70  60  30


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