Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 292049
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
349 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A COLD FRONT EXTENDED
SOUTHEAST OF A TULSA...PAUL/S VALLEY...WICHITA FALLS TO SWEETWATER
LINE. TEMPERATURES HAD CLIMBED TO 90 DEGREES AT BRECKENRIDGE AND
GRAHAM AS OF 3 PM WITH 80S OCCURRING ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEFORE STALLING OUT SOUTHEAST OF SULPHUR SPRINGS TO
CLEBURNE TO GOLDTHWAITE LINE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. SEVERAL OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
METROPLEX NEAR THE FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL
THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST. LOOKING AT THE 12Z FWD SOUNDING...AND THE
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...YOU CAN SEE QUITE A STRONG CAP IN
PLACE. IF STORMS FORM...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS AND SOME 1+ INCH HAIL. GIVEN THE SHEAR...A FEW
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT STARTS TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD. THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD TEMPORARILY END FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. WITH ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR AND ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF I-20 THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE
WILL THEN BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL
SHIFT TO SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL BE CHANCES AREA WIDE NEXT SUNDAY.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1136 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
GETTING TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT A FEW THINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...CROSSWINDS AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THE CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING IS HIDING THE TRICKINESS OF
THE FORECAST TODAY.

SURFACE WINDS ALREADY PICKING ALREADY THIS MORNING...WITH TEMPLE
GUSTING TO 28 MPH AT 11 AM. SEVERAL OTHER OBSERVATION SITES
SHOWING INCREASED MIXING...AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 15 MPH AS WELL.
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
WINDS DIMINISH A BIT THIS EVENING. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE BETWEEN
170 AND 200 DEGREES...WHICH COULD CREATE A FEW CROSSWIND ISSUES
FOR THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR THIS TAF CYCLE.
12UTC SOUNDING AT FWD SHOWS STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE 850...AND HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FEATURE NICELY.
AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TONIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ONLY QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHETHER OR
NOT ANY AIRPORT SITES WILL BE IMPACTED. FOR THE UPCOMING
CYCLE...WILL LEAVE OUT THE MENTION FOR THUNDER...BUT ADDITIONAL
UPDATES TO THAT FORECAST ARE POSSIBLE.

FOX


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  59  75  62  77  63 /  20  20  20  30  30
WACO, TX              60  78  61  80  62 /  10  20  20  20  30
PARIS, TX             54  72  58  75  60 /  30  20  20  30  30
DENTON, TX            56  74  59  77  61 /  30  10  20  30  30
MCKINNEY, TX          56  73  59  76  62 /  30  20  20  30  30
DALLAS, TX            60  76  63  77  64 /  20  20  20  30  30
TERRELL, TX           59  74  60  76  62 /  20  20  20  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         61  76  60  79  63 /  20  20  20  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            61  80  60  80  62 /  10  20  20  20  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     56  76  59  82  61 /  20  10  20  30  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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