Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KFWD 222012
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
312 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NORTH TEXAS HAS BECOME SITUATED BETWEEN A LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE WEST AND A CUT-OFF TUTT TO THE EAST. THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY BEING FELT IN THE WAY OF
INCREASING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ON THE RISE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
RIDGE STRENGTHENS...AND TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FELT IN MANY LOCATIONS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. HEAT
INDICES WILL REACH 105 IN SEVERAL SPOTS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS AND
CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY OF ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY IF FUTURE
APPARENT TEMPERATURE GRIDS INDICATE WIDESPREAD INDICES IN EXCESS
OF 105.

THE CURRENT UPPER AIR PATTERN HAS PLACED NORTH TEXAS BENEATH A
NORTHEAST FLOW REGIME. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO RIDE THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...ESSENTIALLY MOVING SOUTHWEST OUT
OF ARKANSAS TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT
LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY PROVIDE SOME SHORT-LIVED RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION IN THE FORM OF
SCATTERED STORMS. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA ACROSS ARKANSAS...TRAVERSING THE ARKLATEX REGION LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INTO NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS
TOMORROW NIGHT. STORMS MAY BE WEAKENING AS THE ARRIVE DUE TO THE
TIME OF DAY AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE TO THE WEST. STILL...A
FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES NEAR PARIS AND SURROUNDING AREAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH THE FARTHER SOUTHWEST YOU GO...WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCES
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN-MOST COUNTIES.

A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ROUGHLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR THURSDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO
THE AREA AND STALLS...PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL PROBABLY BE TOO STRONG
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE WITH THE HOT CONDITIONS
BEING THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE AN AMPLIFYING UPPER AIR
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON MONDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WHILE THE DOMINANT RIDGE SLIDES
WEST OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL PRODUCE UNSEASONABLY STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH TEXAS. THIS PATTERN WILL SEND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW-END POPS LATE MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 141 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID
FORECAST PERIOD.

THE PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HRS
ARE WIND DIRECTION AT AREA AIRPORTS...AND THEN A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE END OF THE DFW TAF.

WITH REGARDS TO THE WIND DIRECTION...THE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
IDENTIFIED AN ANTICYCLONE AT THE 850 MB LEVEL CENTERED ROUGHLY
OVER CHILDRESS...TX. THIS CAUSED 850 MB WINDS TO SWITCH FROM THE
SOUTH TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE PAST 12 TO 18 HRS. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BECOME EXTREMELY WEAK TO NEARLY NON-
EXISTENT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...ALLOWING THE WIND DIRECTION/SPEEDS
FROM ALOFT TO LARGELY DETERMINE THE VECTOR OF THE SURFACE WINDS.

AS A RESULT...SURFACE WINDS THAT WERE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SOUTHEASTERLY HAVE MORE OR LESS MIRRORED THE 850 MB WINDS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...AROUND 5 MPH
OR LESS THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT PROBABLY WILL HOLD ON TO A EAST
OR NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. WINDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME SOUTHERLY
AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION
STRENGTHENS...LIMITING THE ABILITY FOR WIND DIRECTION ALOFT TO
STRONGLY INFLUENCE THE SURFACE WINDS. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLIGHTLY FAVORS A SOUTHEAST WIND...SO WENT AHEAD WITH
THAT AFTER MIDNIGHT. VERY LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW AS WELL.

WITH REGARDS TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT AIR PARCELS WILL BECOME
CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE BY 6 PM TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
SOME LIFT MOVING INTO THE AREA...BUT FROM THE NORTHEAST AND
PROBABLY AFTER SUNSET. LEFT THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE END OF THE
DFW TAF FOR NOW BECAUSE LIFT IS EXPECTED TO COME IN AFTER THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY...REDUCING CONFIDENCE IN STORMS IMPACTING
AIRPORTS LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTH
OR SOUTHWEST. THIS IS A VERY NON-TRADITIONAL STORM MOTION FOR THIS
AREA...AND IS SOMETHING THAT INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD BE AWARE OF
FOR FLIGHT PLANNING AND RADAR MONITOR PURPOSES TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  99  79 100  79 /   0   5  20  10  10
WACO, TX              75  98  74 100  76 /   5   5  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             75  96  74  96  73 /   5  20  30  20  10
DENTON, TX            75  99  75 100  76 /   0   5  20  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          75  97  74  99  74 /   0  10  30  20  10
DALLAS, TX            78  99  79 100  80 /   0   5  20  10  10
TERRELL, TX           74  98  75  99  76 /   5  10  20  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         74  97  74  99  76 /   5  10  20  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            75  98  73  99  74 /   5   5  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     75  99  76 101  75 /   0   5  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

69/30




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.