Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 170020
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
720 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.AVIATION...
WINDS AT ALL AREA TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND BACK TO A
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AFTER SUNSET. WITH THE CONTINUED
RETURN OF MOISTURE...LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THRU TOMORROW. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT
OVERNIGHT STRATUS WILL OCCUR AREA WIDE AND PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF LOW CIGS COULD VARY BY AN HR OR
TWO...BASED ON THE SPREAD OF MODEL OUTPUT.

FOR THE DFW METROPLEX TAF SITES...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AROUND
09Z. IFR CIGS MAY BRIEFLY OCCUR AROUND SUNRISE...BUT CONFIDENCE OF
THIS OCCURRING IS LOW...SO LEFT MVFR IN THE TAFS. HOWEVER...THE
MOISTURE ALOFT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...SO THE MVFR STRATUS WILL LIFT ABOVE 020 BUT REMAIN MVFR
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TOMORROW.

FOR WACO...UNLIKE FOR THE DFW METRO...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR KACT AROUND 08Z AND WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR CIGS AROUND
SUNRISE. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR AROUND 15Z. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LESS
LIKELY FOR WACO SO HAVE LEFT VCSH OUT OF THE KACT TAF FOR NOW.

AJS

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/
NORTH TEXAS IS CURRENTLY SITUATED BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND A DEVELOPING FRONT OVER THE
PLAINS...RESULTING IN A NARROW PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL HANG ON FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE DECOUPLING AROUND SUNSET AND DECREASING TO
LESS THAN 10 MPH. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH OF THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT AND SPREAD NORTH WITHIN THE 35 KT LOW LEVEL JET. THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND 5-10 MPH WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S BY THURSDAY MORNING.

THE FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN
SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE TO GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING INSTABILITY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES DURING PEAK HEATING THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
IT APPEARS THAT THIS REGION WILL REMAIN CAPPED...WHICH WILL IN
TURN PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
BROAD BUSH 20 POPS AREA-WIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
TOMORROW...BUT CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER.
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AS
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL NOT HAVE HAD TIME TO BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE AREA.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE EAST FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND
ACROSS TEXAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS...BECOMING MORE POSITIVELY TILTED AS
IT MOVES OVERHEAD. THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY PRESENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES LIKELY OCCURRING ON
EASTER SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES OVERHEAD. THE
SURFACE FRONT ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM MAY EASE INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BEFORE STALLING THEN LIFTING NORTH OF THE
RED RIVER BY MONDAY.

UPPER RIDGING WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP OVERHEAD AND DOMINATE LATE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN
HINT AT A LARGER-SCALE AND STRONGER TROUGH...WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY
BRING SOME MORE RAIN CHANCES AS WE HEAD INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

30

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  51  69  57  76  59 /   5  20  20  10  10
WACO, TX              52  71  54  77  55 /   5  20  20  10  10
PARIS, TX             44  68  51  74  54 /   5  20  20  10  10
DENTON, TX            50  66  52  73  54 /   5  20  20  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          48  68  53  74  55 /   5  20  20  10  10
DALLAS, TX            51  70  57  76  58 /   5  20  20  10  10
TERRELL, TX           47  69  54  75  55 /   5  20  20  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         50  71  55  75  56 /   5  20  20  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            52  73  55  76  56 /   5  20  20  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     51  67  54  75  55 /   5  20  20  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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