Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 260405 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1105 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

Concerns...scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly between
17z Tuesday and 01z Wednesday that will produce gusty downburst
winds...lightning and brief heavy rain.

The scattered showers and thunderstorms that developed Monday
afternoon had moved to the south and east of the forecast area by
04z. We will remain in a weakness between the upper level ridges
to our west (over the Four Corners area) and to our east (over the
southeastern United States). With decent moisture in place and
less convective inhibition that in recent days, we will have
scattered showers and thunderstorms develop again from around
midday Tuesday through early evening. Some of these storms will
have the potential to produce strong downburst winds as well as
heavy rain and lightning strikes. For now, have placed VCTS in the
Metroplex and Waco TAFs from 19z through 00z. Outside of
thunderstorms, expect VFR conditions with east to southeast winds
of 5 to 10 knots.



The showers and thunderstorms that developed this afternoon
continue to diminish with the loss of daytime heating. A few
showers continue east of a Temple to Terrell line as of 930 PM.
Have left 20 percent POPs area wide for the overnight period just
in case there is some redevelopment. North and Central Texas is
sandwiched between an upper level ridge over the Four Corners
area and another upper level ridge over the southeastern United
States. Once again tomorrow expect scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop around midday as temperatures approach
the mid 90s. Gusty winds, locally heavy rain that may result in
flooding and frequent cloud to ground lightning will be the main
weather hazards again tomorrow afternoon and early evening.



A large swath of deep Gulf moisture has invaded North and Central
Texas today in response to a slow-moving inverted trough which has
finally worked its way in from the east. This is all occurring as
an upper level ridge which brought the triple digit heat over the
weekend retrogrades westward into the 4-corners region. With the
shear axis aloft and a moist and unstable airmass now in place,
the ingredients for diurnal convection will come together each
day across the forecast area for most of this week.

A deck of mid level clouds which moved overhead this morning
prolonged the onset of storms today (compared to what earlier
guidance indicated), but once the mid 90s convective temps were
reached we have seen scattered convection bubbling across the
region. We should continue to see a gradual increase in coverage
through late afternoon, before the peak heating hours wane and
storms taper off. One concern with these storms will be locally
heavy rainfall and possible flooding due to the high moisture
environment in place and slow southwest cell motion. Fortunately,
it appears that the flood threat would remain isolated due to
the scattered and pulse nature of the thunderstorm activity. An
additional concern will be downburst winds as occasionally intense
cores collapse on themselves. An isolated damaging wind threat
cannot be ruled out, though the vast majority of this afternoon`s
storms should remain sub-severe.

Convection will begin to wane this evening with the loss of
surface heating, and any activity during the overnight hours
should remain isolated in nature. Warm and humid conditions will
prevail overnight with above-normal low temperatures expected.
With high dewpoints and light winds, air quality will become an
issue during the day on Tuesday. The TCEQ has gone ahead and
issued an Ozone Action Day for the Metroplex for Tuesday. Showers
and storms should begin to develop again during the afternoon
hours with brief heavy rain and gusty winds being the main
concern. Convection will be scattered in nature, and any flooding
threat should be limited to small lines or clusters in the
vicinity of outflow mergers.

Little change in the weather pattern is expected through the end
of the work week with primarily diurnally driven convection
expected each day. Activity should remain scattered and POPs will
generally range from 30 to 50 percent. By Saturday, the upper
level ridge to our west will begin to once again expand eastward
into the Southern Plains. Low POPs will be kept across the eastern
half of the forecast area over the weekend before hot and dry
weather returns area-wide early next week.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    76  98  79  97  79 /  20  30  10  30  20
Waco                74  99  76  95  78 /  40  40  20  40  20
Paris               74  96  76  94  75 /  20  30  10  30  20
Denton              76  96  77  95  77 /  20  30  10  30  20
McKinney            76  96  76  96  77 /  20  30  10  30  20
Dallas              76  98  79  97  79 /  20  30  10  30  20
Terrell             75  97  76  94  77 /  20  30  10  30  20
Corsicana           75  97  76  94  76 /  40  40  20  40  20
Temple              75  96  74  94  76 /  50  50  20  40  20
Mineral Wells       75  98  75  96  76 /  20  30  10  30  20


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