Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 292245

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
445 PM MDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 303 PM MDT Sun May 29 2016

Split troughy pattern over the Rockies will progress eastward
over the next couple of days. The southern closed low trekking
across SoCal today will allow for some added instability late
Monday afternoon and through the night with pieces of energy
pushing in to the northern Four Corners ahead of the unstable air
mass. As mentioned in the previous forecast discussion overall
the models have downscaled activity for Monday afternoon, but
with the vort kickers and ever so slightly increased bulk shear I
would expect more activity than today. High and low temperatures
will remain around normal over the next few days.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 303 PM MDT Sun May 29 2016

The closed low will stall over Arizona, propagate southward,
and stay south of our forecast area through Wednesday before it
weakens. During this time frame, afternoon convection should stay
anchored over the higher terrain for the most part. In the
meantime, 500 mb heights strengthen high pressure over the
western US and qill slowly shift its axis over eastern Utah and
western Colorado by next weekend. Summer-like weather will truly
show up late this week and next weekend as temperatures soar into
the 90s across the lower valleys and into the upper 60s in the
high mountains.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 439 PM MDT Sun May 29 2016

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across the area
through about 03z this evening. Storms will be focused most
strongly over the mountains of western CO and northeast Utah. The
strongest cells will be capable producing outflow winds to 40 MPH
and will briefly obscure mountains. Brief MVFR vsbys and ils cigs
are possible at kase...kege...kril...ktex and kvel. After 03z
storms will dissipate and winds will transition to light and
terrain driven. Similar shower and thunderstorms development is
expected after 17Z Monday.


.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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