Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KGJT 280951
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
351 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN TODAY AS PWATS DROP BACK DOWN TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES. SUNNY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
LENDING CONVECTION A HAND THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
VERY ISOLATED IN NATURE. BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW POP UPS LOOK TO BE
OVER THE SAN JUANS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

A DEEP TROUGH WILL COME ASHORE OVER THE PACNW SATURDAY MORNING AND
WILL FORCE THE RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT TO THE NE. AS THIS OCCURS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT MOISTURE STREAMING UP FROM THE
SUBTROPICS THOUGH AMOUNTS WILL NOT REACH NEAR AS HIGH AS SEEN
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. FOR SATURDAY THEN...ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER
DAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH MAYBE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN CONVECTION OVER
THE SAN JUANS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR REBOUND INCHING UPWARDS EACH DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
EJECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FROM THE MAIN TROUGH OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DESCRIBED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION.
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL RISE TO NEAR AN INCH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA WITH CLOSE TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTH.
INCREASED MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME WARMING IN CONCERT WITH
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING A MARKED UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SUNDAY. IN
FACT DYNAMIC FORCING INDICATED TO BRING NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING. DRYING BEGINS TO WORK ACROSS EASTERN UTAH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL KEEP
ACTIVITY GOING...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...IN WESTERN COLORADO.

FLOW CONTINUES UNABATED FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...HOWEVER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INDICATED TO DECLINE
AS THE MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AND OUT OF THE
AREA. REGARDLESS...AS IS SO COMMON THIS TIME OF YEAR...THERE WILL
BE SUFFICIENT RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO GENERATE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...MAINLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OF
COLORADO.

PERSISTENT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH THURSDAY OF THE COMING WEEK.
HOWEVER...LOCAL VARIANCES CAN BE EXPECTED GIVEN FORECAST MODEL/S
INABILITY TO ACCURATELY PREDICT LOCATIONS AND TIMING OF MOIST
CONVECTION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

EXPECT QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS FORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 18Z. LATEST MODELS
SUGGEST COVERAGE WILL BE REDUCED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY DUE TO A
DECREASE IN MOISTURE. AS A RESULT...THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE THAT
AIRPORTS WILL BE IMPACTED BY RAINFALL THOUGH SITES CLOSE TO HIGHER
TERRAIN MAY EXPERIENCE BRIEF AND UNPREDICTABLE OUTFLOW WINDS OF 25
TO 30 MPH. STORMS WILL DIMINISH BY...OR SHORTLY AFTER 02Z/SAT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.