Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 232051
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
251 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE ON THE EXIGUOUS SIDE...CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
IN PLACE TO END OUT THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE SOME THIN HIGH
CLOUDINESS DRIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD
BOOST LOW TEMPERATURES UP JUST A TAD AND LIMIT THE SPREAD OF
STRATUS ACROSS THE EAGLE AND UPPER COLORADO RIVER VALLEYS.
SATELLITE AND H5 HAND ANALYSIS SHOW AN ENLARGED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE YUKON AND GULF OF ALASKA CURRENTLY. THIS IS
BEING UNDERCUT BY THE UPPER JET ATTM SO THERE IS NO THREAT OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER DRIFTING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
INSTEAD...AN UPSTREAM BRANCH OF THE JET DIGGING OUT OF THE
ALEUTIANS CARVE OUT THE NEXT TROUGH OF THE LEFT COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS...BROAD RIDGING FROM THE GREAT
BASIN TO THE GREAT PLAINS WILL LEAVE PLEASANT FALL CONDITIONS IN
PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE REGION SHIFTS
EAST AND BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON SAT AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE HIGH COUNTRY AND NORTHERN VALLEYS...AS IT
BRUSHES THE FORECAST AREA SUN AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SAT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...MIXING INTO THE
VALLEYS AGAIN ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH...AND THE BEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW QUICKLY DEVELOPING
IN ITS WAKE. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...AND IN THE ONSET AND DURATION OF SHOWERS.
HOWEVER SO FAR THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THIS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EVENT DUE TO ITS RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION. THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL BE FAVORED...WITH A FEW OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO MONDAY EVENING. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY MON AFTERNOON. ALSO BY LATE SUN
NIGHT...SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP INTO THE NORTHERN AND HIGH CENTRAL
VALLEYS ALONG A LINE FROM CRAIG TO GUNNISON AND EASTWARD.

RIDGING WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE
WORK WEEK...WITH A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATING OUR FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES: VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SAT AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS SIMILAR...TO A
DEGREE OR TWO LESS THAN ON FRIDAY. MILD NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL FOLLOW
AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. COOLING
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT APPROACH PRODUCING MORE CLOUDS AND SOME LATE DAY SHOWERS.
MON WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY. HOWEVER THAT IS RELATIVE AS HIGHS ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO DIP A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS
MON NIGHT AND EVEN TUE NIGHT MAY DROP BELOW FREEZING IN SOME LOWER
VALLEYS THAT HAVE YET TO EXPERIENCE A SEASON ENDING FREEZE. THIS
RISK WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE...AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENTING)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE AREA TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH CIGS AOA 20KFT AGL. MOISTURE ALONG THE EAGLE AND
UPPER COLORADO RIVER VALLEYS LOOKS TO HAVE MIXED OUT TODAY AND
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THIS WILL NOT RETURN AND IMPACT
THE KEGE TERMINAL FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...TGJT



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