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000
FXUS65 KGJT 102105
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
305 PM MDT MON MAR 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT MON MAR 10 2014

MORNING MODEL RUNS BROUGHT A CHANGE TO TONIGHT`S CONDITIONS. THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST APPEARS TO STALL OVER NE
UTAH THIS EVENING AND NOT PUSH THROUGH NW CO UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE
TUE. MOISTURE CONTENT IS SHOWN TO DECREASE WITH FAIRLY LOW QPFS
EXPECTED. SO HAVE PARED BACK THE CHC OF PRECIP THIS EVENING AND
RAMPED IT BACK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT. FRONTOLYSIS TAKES OVER TUE AS
THE FRONT SLOWLY ADVANCES SOUTH WITH DWINDLING MOISTURE AND
UPLIFTED PROJECTED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF ABOUT A MOAB TO DELTA TO
ASPEN LINE. WILL LOWER STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN THE TWO ADVISORY
ZONES TO 4 TO 8 INCHES.

THE DISSIPATING FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH TO THE SAN JUANS AND FOUR
CORNERS TUE AND TUE NIGHT...WHILE CONNECTED T0 A CLOSED LOW
RETROGRADING SW OVER SW UT AND SOUTH NV. IT APPEARS MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WILL SLIDE EAST...WITH NOT MUCH REMAINING FOR SNOWFALL
OVER THE SAN JUAN MTS. HAVE LOWERS POPS AND QPF ACROSS THE BOARD
THERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT MON MAR 10 2014

WEDNESDAY...EAST-WEST ORIENTED DEFORMATION/SHEAR AXIS REMAINS OVER THE
SOUTHCENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE BREAKAWAY PIECE OF
THE SPLIT TROUGH FORMS A CLOSED LOW OVER SRN NV. DRY AIR DOMINATES
NORTH OF THE SHEAR AXIS FOR SUNNY SKIES OVER NE UT/NW CO. SOME LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHOWN BY THE MODELS ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR SOME
AFTERNOON CLOUDS IN THE DAYTIME HEATING.

THE SHEAR AXIS LIFTS NORTH TO ABOUT THE ROAN PLATEAU/FLATTOPS ON THU
AS THAT CLOSED LOW MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST...PASSING THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA BY THU EVENING. GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION OVER SE UT/SW CO THU WHILE THE 12Z NAM KEEPS IT TO THE
SOUTH. WILL SIDE WITH THE MAJORITY AND KEEP CHANCE WORDING IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN MTNS THU/THU EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW A
PACIFIC DISTURBANCE TOPPING THE RIDGE AND THEN DROPPING DOWN INTO
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE NRN CO
AND PERHAPS CENTRAL MTNS SATURDAY AS IT PASSES. OTHERWISE...THIS
WEEKEND LOOKS DRY.

12Z GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON A SUBSEQUENT PAC WAVE FOR MONDAY. THE
GFS SPLITS IT FORMING A CLOSED LOW OFFSHORE WHILE THE ECMWF TRACKS
THE OPEN WAVE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES INTO NE UT BY LATE MONDAY. WILL
KEEP MONDAY DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES SHOW A SLOW WARMING TREND FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH READINGS HOVERING AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1101 AM MDT MON MAR 10 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THE REST UNTIL SUNSET
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. ONLY LAYERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED. INCREASING WEST WINDS ALOFT WILL CAUSE AREAS OF
MECHANICAL TURBULENCE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

AFTER ABOUT 03Z A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NE UT WITH MOUNTAIN
SNOWFALL SPREAD EAST INTO NW CO AFTER 06Z. PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD SOUTH TO THE FLATTOPS AND ROAN PLATEAU AND VAIL PASS VCNTY
ABOUT 09Z...AND INTO THE SAN JUAN MTS ABOUT 12Z. EAST OF A LINE
FROM KCAG TO KGUC...OCCASIONAL MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
ARE EXPECTED IN SNOW SHOWERS GENERALLY AFTER 09Z. MOUNTAINS EAST
OF THAT LINE WILL BECOME OBSCURED AS WELL.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MDT
     TUESDAY COZ004-013.


UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...CC