Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 022107
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
307 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE PRIMARY AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS CONCENTRATED OVER SOUTHWEST
COLORADO...ALTHOUGH THIS AREA EXTENDS NORTHWARD ALONG THE COLORADO
SPINE. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE LIES OVER SW COLORADO WITH SPECIFIC
HUMIDITIES AT 700 MB IN THE 8-10 G/KG RANGE. STORMS WILL BE SLOW
TO DIE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT AND EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS
TO GO WELL BEYOND MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY LAST UNTIL DAYBREAK.
ISOLATED STORMS COULD BE HEAVY RAINERS...BUT SHEAR PROFILE
REMAINS QUITE WEAK AND STORM CELLS WILL PULSE UP AND DOWN.
EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER MILD/WARM NIGHT
WITH SOME DESERT VALLEYS STAYING ABOVE 70F.

ACROSS THE NORTH...ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED STORM...MOSTLY DRY
OVER THIS REGION AS DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO NE UTAH AND THE
NW COLORADO CORNER. THIS AREA BECOMES MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA ON FRIDAY. THE NEAR 1 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER DOES NOT WANT TO LEAVE AND IS NOW FORECAST TO STICK AROUND
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN BUT WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS DRIFT INTO ADJACENT VALLEYS SINCE STEERING
WINDS ARE FINALLY BEGINNING TO GAIN SOME SPEED AFTER QUITE A FEW
DAYS OF LIGHT FLOW ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE FAIRLY FAR SOUTH BY
SATURDAY NIGHT OVER SE ARIZONA AND SW NEW MEXICO AND REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY WILL CREATE ENHANCED INSTABILITY FOR A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO. COMBINED WITH HIGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE CONTENT...THERE
COULD BE SOME GOOD SOAKERS LATE SUNDAY AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY
MONDAY. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY
BE TEMPORARY SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT SINCE THE FORECAST MODELS TEND
TO DRY OUT TOO QUICKLY...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE REASSESSED LATER.

TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER BEGINNING ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE WITH
THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND MUGGINESS WILL ENSUE.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES EAST MIDWEEK
EVENTUALLY SETTING UP OVER THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS NEXT FRIDAY. IF
THIS SOLUTION IS CORRECT...DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL STREAM
UP INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR EAST OF A LINE FROM KCEZ-KTEX-
KMTJ-KASE-KSBS. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED +TSRA WITH CIGS OBSCURING
MOUNTAIN PEAKS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KDRO WITH
G30KTS FROM NEARBY STORMS AND WIND SHIFT FROM THE NE-E.
STORMS WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED
-TSRA/-SHRA PERSISTING TO 12Z.

NORTHWEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THIS AREA. ONE OR TWO ISOLATED SHORT LIVED -TSRA MAY
OCCUR BETWEEN 19Z THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING...BUT
UNLIKELY TO IMPACT ANY TAF SITE.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...PF



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