Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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954
FXUS65 KGJT 100444
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
944 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

H5 UPPER AIR HAND ANALYSIS AT 12Z IS SHOWING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ACROSS NOAM. LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE POLAR REGIONS
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE A BEEFY RIDGE OVERLAYS THE LEFT
COAST. THIS IS LEAVING DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE SPINE
OF THE ROCKIES...WHICH RELAXES FARTHER TO THE WEST. IT APPEARS
THIS RIDGE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND
ALLOWED SOME WARMER AIR IN ALOFT...STRENGTHENING THE INVERSIONS.
SEVERAL AREAS ARE STRUGGLING TO MIX...HENCE WARM...COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. WITH THIS STRONGER INVERSION TRAPPING IN MOISTURE FOG
MAY BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE PROBLEMATIC OVERNIGHT.
VERNAL...CANYONLANDS...EAGLE ARE PRIME SPOT TONIGHT...WHILE THE
GRAND VALLEY...YAMPA VALLEY AND POSSIBLY THE LOWER GUNNY MAY SEE A
BIT MORE PATCHY FOG. OF COURSE CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH BUT DID SPREAD
FOG OUT A BIT MORE IN GRIDS OVERNIGHT. USED LOWS FROM THIS MORNING
AS A BASE BUT MADE SOME TWEAKS ACCORDING TO CURRENT TRENDS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL
DOMINATE WITH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING THIN FOG AND HAZE
POSSIBLE IN RIVER VALLEYS AND THE HIGHER PLATEAUS AND BASIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE
WESTERN U.S THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH STRONG SURFACE-BASED INVERSIONS EACH
MORNING. THESE INVERSIONS MAY HELP PATCHY FOG TO FORM IN VALLEY
BOTTOMS...BUT WILL DEFINITE CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO BE WARMER ABOVE
THE INVERSION IN THE MOUNTAINS AND COLDER BENEATH THE INVERSIONS
IN THE LOWER VALLEYS AND PLATEAU...ESPECIALLY WHERE SIGNIFICANT
SNOW FIELDS REMAIN.

THERE HAVE BEEN MINOR CHANGES IN MODEL SOLUTION TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND ITS
RIDGELINE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY. A MINOR SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO SKIM PAST THE NORTHERN CO BORDER SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHICH IS LATER THAN EARLIER SOLUTIONS. IF THIS
COMES TRUE IT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THE NORTHERN AREAS
THRU MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE RIDGE REESTABLISHING ITS DOMINANCE
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 941 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

ASIDE FROM KVEL WHICH IS REPORTING 3SM DUE TO FOG...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG
OR HAZE IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...TGR



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