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000
FXUS65 KGJT 041101
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
401 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

THE COLD FRONT WORKED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LAST EVENING
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW. THE UPPER TROUGH WAS
OVERHEAD THIS EARLY MORNING WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE CO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MTNS. SNOTELS WERE SLOW TO REACT TO THE
LATEST SNOWFALL BUT 4-10 INCHES LOOKS TO HAVE FALLEN OVERNIGHT
OVER THE NORTHERN GRAND MESA TO MCCLURE PASS AND ALSO ON THE
UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU. FLOW WILL VEER STRONGLY TO NORTH IN COLD
ADVECTION THIS MORNING WITH THE LAST BEST FORCING MOVING INTO THE
SAN JUAN MTNS. AS FOR THE UNCOMPAHGRE GORGE...700MB WINDS ARE TOO
LIGHT AND THE MOISTURE PROFILE ERODES QUICKLY THIS MORNING TO
LIMIT SNOWFALL TO ROUGHLY SIMILAR AMOUNTS FALLING IN SURROUNDING
MOUNTAINS.

UPDATED THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS LAST NIGHT TO BEGIN TO DROP OFF
AT 5AM FOR THE WESTERN-MOST COLORADO MOUNTAINS...WITH THE
REMAINDER DROPPING BY 9AM. THIS TIMING IS STILL SUPPORTED IN THE
06Z NAM. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW FRONTAL FORCING COMPLETE BY
15Z. ALSO THE NEW AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY WITH NW COLORADO DEWPOINTS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THIS DRIER AIR WILL WORK ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON FROM TAYLOR PARK SOUTH TO WOLF CREEK PASS.

TODAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK. CLEARING SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET. WENT
BELOW GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS BUT MAY NEED TO BE LOWER YET.
WITH THE EXCEPTIONALLY LOW DEWPOINTS IN THE NEW AIR MASS...FOG IS
NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT. SOME MAY BE ABLE TO FORM ALONG THE COLDEST
WATER COURSES AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

NW FLOW CONTINUES ON THURSDAY AS A FAMILIAR RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALONG
THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL START A MOSTLY SUNNY WARMING TREND.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

THE MID RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A STRONG RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MODERATE NW FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIDE DOWN
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WHICH SHOULD AFFECT MOSTLY
EASTERN COLORADO...BUT STILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE RISING TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL SEE THE WESTERN RIDGE CONTINUING TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE.
THE GFS SHOWS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER TROUGH RIDING N TO S THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY AND THE ECMWF HINTS AT THAT AS WELL. HAVE KEPT CLOUDS
OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SOME NORTH FACING SLOPES WITH LOW
POPS. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RISE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE PATTERN STARTS TO SLOWLY TRANSITION AS
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.
THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND SLIDE EAST. AS THE THERMAL
RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD...TEMPS SHOULD RUN 3 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH EC TEMPS AT THE LOW END THE GFS NUMBERS COMPRISING
THE HIGHER EXTREME. THE NW FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND HIGHER CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN INVADING FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

THROUGH 15Z...SNOW SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
PREVALENT. TAF SITES KMTJ...KEGE...KASE...KTEX WILL HAVE PERIODS
OF CIGS BLO 020 AND VSBY BLO 2SM IN SNOW SHOWERS. KGJT AND KRIL
WILL HAVE CIGS BLO 050 THROUGH 15Z. AFTER 15Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE THE RULE. SNOW SHOWERS DECREASE OVER THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH LITTLE CHANCE THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SPILL
OVER ADJACENT AIRPORTS. MOUNTAINS WILL OCNLY BE OBSCURED EAST OF A
LINE FROM KEGE SOUTH TO KTEX.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ003-004-
     010-012-013-018.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     COZ009-017-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...JOE