Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 290503
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
1103 PM MDT Sun May 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 340 PM MDT Sun May 28 2017

Beautiful afternoon across eastern Utah and western Colorado today
with warm temperatures and just some fair weather cumulus popping
up across the region. Although the KGJX radar is quiet at the
moment, high resolution models are showing a chance for some
spotty showers this afternoon, though any convection that does
form should end by sunset. For the overnight hours we can look
forward to light and variable winds with seasonal temperatures.

Moisture will be pulled in from down south on Monday which will
result in isolated to scattered orographic showers firing off in
the early afternoon. The warming trend under the ridge will
continue with daytime highs climbing a few degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 340 PM MDT Sun May 28 2017

While the ridge will still remain overhead on Tuesday, a deep
trough will set up off the western CONUS and, as this trough moves
further inland on Wednesday, a split-flow pattern will develop.
Both the GFS and Euro push a shortwave trough out ahead of the
parent trough and underneath our ridge with the GFS carving a
cutoff low in eastern New Mexico. The cyclonic circulation of this
feature will pump moisture into the region with PWATs climbing
well above normal for this time of year.

This uptick in moisture will lead to an increase in diurnally
driven showers each afternoon. The mountains, and in particular
the San Juans, will be favored for storms with some convection
spilling into the valleys. The GFS continues to be the wetter
solution but, either way, activity appears to become more
widespread around midweek.

Extended models are still very much in disagreement on the state
of the atmosphere for the latter half of the long term period,
though they are now at least in phase through Thursday in showing
southwesterly flow increasing across our area as the next Pacific
storm digs inland. Beyond Thursday it`s a mixed bag of solutions
with the GFS bringing an embedded wave through our region for the
end of the work week while the Euro favors a split flow pattern.
To our south, the Euro even throws a tropical disturbance into
the mix off the coast of western Mexico!

Needless to say, confidence remains low after midweek and will
likely continue as such until models become more in phase with one
another. As the previous forecaster mentioned, the main message
for the long term remains as such: available moisture increases
with diurnally driven showers favoring the higher terrain each
afternoon. Temperatures will remain at or slightly above seasonal
through the work week with no drastic cooling trends on the
horizon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1103 MDT Sun May 28 2017

A ridge of high pressure to the west will limit the influx of
moisture into the region over the next 24 hours. As a result,
TAF sites will not experience CIGS below ILS breakpoints and VFR
conditions will persist. Though moisture will be limited,
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over
the eastern Uinta Mountains and the mountains along the
Continental Divide in Colorado. Unpredictable and strong outflow
winds from high based showers/thunderstorms may be experienced at
KRIL, KEGE, KRIL and KVEL from 20Z through 03Z/Tuesday.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MMS
LONG TERM...MMS
AVIATION...NL



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