Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 300948
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
348 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT WAS CENTERED OVER NORTH TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY INTO COLORADO TODAY. THE WEST TO
EAST RIDGE AXIS IS ORIENTED ROUGHLY ALONG HIGHWAY 50. DEEP
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE
AXIS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE SW CO VALLEYS AND SW SAN JUANS WILL
SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS FORMING THROUGH THE
MORNING. BY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES. STORM
MOTION WILL BE VERY SLOW...EVEN STATIONARY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO OVER 1.3 INCHES IN THE
FOUR CORNERS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS THREATENS LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAINLY FROM RED MTN PASS TO SLUMGULLION PASS SOUTHWARD.
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ADDING A
FEW DEGREES TO THE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
OVER THE SAN JUANS CAN OFTEN PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS INTO THE WEST
CENTRAL VALLEY INCLUDING THE I-70 CORRIDOR. BUT LIGHT WEST
GRADIENT WINDS ALOFT MAY LIMIT THESE STRONGER WINDS. SOUTHERN
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT.
SO STORM COVERAGE MAY ALSO SHRINK SOMEWHAT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON STORMS MAY FORM UP TO THE I-70 CORRIDOR. HOT AND DRY
CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

STABLE LONG WAVE PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SWRN
CONUS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL CIRCULATE AROUND THE HIGH CENTER...DIURNAL HEATING
AND PERIODIC DISTURBANCES WILL BE THE PRIMARY MECHANISMS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE COVERS THE
SOUTHERN HALF AND THIS AREA STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF DO INDICATE AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE LIGHT
FLOW PATTERN THAT SHOULD ENHANCE SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS UTAH AND
COLORADO. NEITHER AGREE ON THE EXACT DAY (EITHER SUNDAY OR MONDAY)
NOR INTENSITY. WILL SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES AND BOOST POPS WHEN
CONFIDENCE RISES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

ISOLATED -SHRA REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FROM KDRO EASTWARD AND
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY...SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KCNY-KMTJ-KMYP ISOLATED-SCATTERED
-TSRA WILL DEVELOP BY 18Z...WITH WIDESPREAD STORMS OVER THE SW SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD AFT 21Z. KTEX AND KDRO MAY SEE CIGS BLO
050 AND VIS BLO 6SM AT TIMES IN -TSRA/TSRA AFT 21Z. SCT TO
NUMEROUS -TSRA WILL CONTINUE BEYOND SUNSET.

NORTH OF THE LINE FROM KCNY-KMTJ-KMYP...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...JOE


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