National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS65 KGJT 202145
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
345 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013

FORECAST AREA IMPACTED BY NRN PLAINS CLOSED LOW AS ENERGY DIVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPE TODAY.  THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY HAS
WEAKENED BUT NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE FORMED IN THE MOIST
AIR MASS...BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS FARTHER WEST IN ERN UTAH.
INFLUENCE FROM THE NRN PLAIN CLOSED LOWS DIMINISHES
TONIGHT...THEREFORE MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT.  ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER TOWARD
THE NRN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...BUT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE DRY BY MIDNIGHT.

THE MAIN WESTERLIES TAKE HOLD ON TUESDAY AND ADVECTING DRIER AIR
INTO WRN COLORADO.  EXPECT TO BE SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE
MOUNTAIN RIDGES.  THESE PULSE TYPE SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL DRIFT
SOUTHEAST BUT WEAKEN AS THEY ROLL OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  WITH MORE
SUN AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...EXPECT RECOVERING TEMPS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES.  BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY SHOWERS WILL HAVE DISSIPATED AROUND
SUNSET WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON THE INCREASE OF SOUTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NW INTERACTS WITH RIDGE
IN PLACE. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER EASTERN UT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TO WESTERN CO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EXCEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE IN HIGH ELEVATIONS
OF CENTRAL MTNS.

MODELS SHOW SOME LIFTING AVAILABLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THOUGH
MOISTURE APPEARS TO ONLY BE AVAILABLE AT HIGH ALTITUDES SUGGESTING
SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS AND LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013

TIL 03Z...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
THE MOUNTAIN TAF SITES WITH POSSIBLE IFR CIGS. SHOWERS WILL BE
LESS NUMEROUS AT THE DESERT TAF SITES.

AFTER 03Z...SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT WITH VFR
EXPECTED AT ALL AREAS. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF FOG IN THE
VICINITY OF THE KEGE AIRPORT AROUND DAYBREAK.

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...ISOLATED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FORM OVER THE WESTERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS AND THE EASTERN
UINTA MOUNTAINS. KASE AND KEGE WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013

NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD
INTO THE AREA PULLING VERY DRY AND WARM AIR IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
BEGINNING TOMORROW. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR POTENTIAL CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS IN EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO BY THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND
VERY LOW HUMIDITY PERSISTS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...PF