Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 162132
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
332 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

THE WEAK FRONTAL BAND HAS SAGGED INTO THE SOUTHERN MTNS THIS
AFTERNOON. NWS DOPPLER RADAR AND WEATHER CAMS INDICATE HIGH MTN
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SAN JUANS WESTWARD INTO THE ABAJO
MTNS WITH SNOW LEVEL BETWEEN 9K-10KFT THERE. SNOTEL SITES HAVE
SHOWN NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION THROUGH THE MORNING.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE BEST PRECIP OCCURRING NEAR THE
850-700MB CONVERGENCE CENTER. THIS CENTER IS EAST OF THE SAN JUAN
MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFTING FURTHER EAST THIS EVENING AS THE
TROUGH SLIDES ONTO THE PLAINS. CLEARING SKIES WILL WORK IN FROM NW
TO SE THROUGH THE EVENING. VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL AGAIN BECOME
SEASONABLY STRONG TONIGHT. THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS OF THE
GRAND...UNCOMPAHGRE...AND GUNNISON RIVER BASINS WILL LIKELY DIP
BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. BUT AFTER TWO FREEZE WARNINGS AND THE
DAMAGE DONE EARLIER THIS WEEK...WILL NOT ISSUE A THIRD FOR SPOTTY
CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE PROGRESSES QUICKLY ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN BRINGING SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
AFTERNOON STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE COLORADO MTNS IS NOT EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ANY SHOWERS. THURSDAY NIGHT...FLOW VEERS TO SW WHICH
BRINGS INCREASING CLOUDS. THE SUBTROPICAL LOW MAKES LANDFALL IN SW
CALIFORNIA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE SUBTROPICAL LOW
MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THE CHANCE FOR
TSTORMS INCREASES AS A CONVECTIVE COMPONENT ADDS IN WITH THE
DYNAMICS. PWATS ARE PROGGED TO BE ABOUT 0.50 INCH SATURDAY WHICH
IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL VALUES THIS TIME OF
YEAR. A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY BUT FOR THE
MOST PART WILL BE OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN AND HAVE MOVED OUT OF
WESTERN CO AND EASTERN UT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE THIS
WEEKEND AS MOST LOCATIONS STAY UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS.

THE UPPER LEVEL JET RETURNS ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF TUESDAY AND
POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BECOMING CRITICAL FIRE WX DAYS.

LATEST 12Z MODELS DIVERGE ON THE LONG TERM SOLUTION MIDWEEK AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. EC KEEPS THE COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE
REGION AS WELL AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY OVER NORTHERN
UT AND CO. THE GFS IS STILL BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH UTAH AND
COLORADO AT A NICE CLIP BRINGING DECENT PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
WITH IT. LEANING TOWARD A BLEND OF THE TWO BUT WEIGHTED SLIGHTLY
MORE TOWARD THE GFS AS THIS PERSISTS WITH THE RECENT PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MTNS UNTIL 06Z...SCT -SHSN/-SHRA WILL OCNLY
PRODUCE MVFR CIGS AND OBSCD MTN TOPS. TAF SITES NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AFFECTED BY PRECIP. AFTER 06Z VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO INCLUDING THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MTNS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JOE



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