Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 140342
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
942 PM MDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 317 PM MDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Shower and thunderstorm activity will continue into the evening
hours before diminishing overnight. The storm environment has
produced mainly pop-and-drop type cells, but a few of the
stronger storms have been longer-lived. The stronger storms will
contain gusty outflow winds to 45 mph, small hail and locally
heavy rain with the best focus across the north. A shortwave
trough will move into the Great Basin on Monday and bring another
round of late-day showers and thunderstorms to the region with
less coverage across the south. PW values drop slightly with a
swath of much drier southwest flow moving across the Four Corners
region by late Monday. Most activity will diminish during the
evening with the exception of the north where showers and
thunderstorms may continue into the overnight hours.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 317 PM MDT Sun Aug 13 2017

The shortwave trough will slowly move across the area on Tuesday
and east of the Rockies by early Wednesday. Expect another round
of isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms with best focus
across the mountains and north of I-70. After a dry start on
Wednesday, another weak wave will move across the region late
Wednesday into Thursday with a slight uptick in showers and
thunderstorms expected. A fairly benign weather pattern will
develop by Thursday with slight chance/chance late day showers and
thunderstorms each day. Models are hinting at the possibility of
an increased moisture feed from the south by the weekend which
would bump up POPs. Temperatures are expected to climb to near
normal by the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 942 PM MDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Showers have become more isolated in coverage over the last hour
or so and will gradually diminish overnight with just a few
showers persisting through sunrise. Another round of scattered
showers and storms are expected for Monday afternoon with activity
firing off after 15Z. Gusty outflow winds to 45 mph, heavy rain
and frequent lightning will accompany the strongest storms. Expect
CIGS to dip below ILS breakpoints in the vicinity of storms,
otherwise VFR conditions will persist. Mountain tops may be
obscured at times in heavy rain and low clouds.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPM
LONG TERM...MPM
AVIATION...TGJT



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