Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 290456
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1056 PM MDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 554 PM MDT Sat May 28 2016

The sag pond water level at the West Creek landslide has leveledout
after the release earlier in the week. Officials have determined
that flash flooding poses much less of a threat to the area so the
flash flood watch has been allowed to expire.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 322 PM MDT Sat May 28 2016

A modest amount of moisture will continue to be entrained over
the region as the next low pressure system develops over southern
California through Sunday...then gradually shifts east. Today`s
relatively low grade convection will continue into the evening
before diminishing as the diurnal assist diminishes. Look for a
repeat on Sunday as temperatures approach, but still stay shy, of normal
for late May. Low temps will also see a little warming but will
also stay below normal as we should see good clearing each night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 322 PM MDT Sat May 28 2016

A northern branch shortwave trough will move over the northern
Rockies on Monday and may result in an uptick in mainly afternoon
convection as it brushes our forecast area. In addition, the
southern California low will approach our area but will remain to
our southwest. The persistent southwest flow will continue to
carry modest moisture into the region through Tuesday. Behind
these features, a ridge of high pressure will develop along the
west coast early in the work week and then move into the Great
Basin by midweek. This high pressure center will continue to
strengthen and will remain to our west through the end of the
period. As a result, temperatures will top out a few degrees above
normal late in the week. Less, but sufficient moisture will remain
over the region for a slight chance of mainly mountain showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1051 PM MDT Sat May 28 2016

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours at all the TAF
sites. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop after 17z
Sunday over the mountains with a few drifting over the valleys.
There is less than a 20 percent chance of a thunderstorms
affecting a TAF site, with less than a 10 percent chance of a
storm degrading the cig or vsby.

&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...CC



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