Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 252125
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
325 PM MDT Thu May 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 325 PM MDT Thu May 25 2017

Currently, there is a large gradient of temperatures between
cooler air (40s and 50s) generally north of I-70 and locations
south where cooler air has not reached yet and temperatures are in
the 70s and 80s. Short term forecast models indicate cooler air
dropping a bit further south this evening but this will only bring
a minor decrease in low temperatures tonight. The energy which is
firing off precipitation across NE Utah and northern Colorado
today will move east and bring a more stable environment to the
region overnight and into Friday. Though a few showers may develop
Friday, these will be very isolated in nature and more likely
virga producing rather than any accumulation precipitation.
Available moisture begins to increase again on Friday night from
the north and west. A closed low splitting off of the parent
closed low over Saskatchewan is expected to develop over Oregon
and Idaho and push energy into NE Utah beginning Friday night,
beginning another round of showers and potentially thunderstorms
across NE Utah and NW Colorado again. There will be the
possibility for some snow showers above 9000 ft in the Flattops,
Elkhead, Park and Gore Ranges Friday night. Little accumulation (1
to 2 inches max) is expected.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 325 PM MDT Thu May 25 2017

Trough is on track to move northwest to southeast through Utah and
Colorado on Saturday afternoon, bringing an elogated piece of
energy that will allow for a decent bit of activity with PV fields
supporting this thinking. The one limiter for activity will be the
possibility of cloud bases being mid to high-level based with
PWATS only around 0.30 in to 0.40 in.

Beginning Sunday, high pressure is still on track to amplify over
the western US. Closed low developing over Baja California will
help to pump moisture into western Colorado and allow for diurnal
shower and thunderstorm activity each afternoon over the higher
terrain. Lightning will be the greatest threat next week for those
working or recreating in the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1045 AM MDT Thu May 25 2017

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will persist across
much of eastern Utah and western Colorado through tonight as a
cold front works through the region. Showers will be most
numerous north of I-70 with gusty outflow winds and brief heavy
precipitation expected with the strongest storms. ILS cigs will be
common north of the front with VFR conds persisting across the
southern valleys.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 325 PM MDT Thu May 25 2017

Ongoing Red Flag conditions in Colorado Fire Weather Zones 207
and 290 due to gusty winds and low relative humidity. Another weather
disturbance will create windy conditions and critical fire
conditions again Friday afternoon across Colorado Fire Weather
Zones 203, 290, and 292. The wind gusts are being produced because
of a tight temperature gradient between the relatively warm air
in place over the region and much cooler air to our north. Moisture
finally returns to the region for a day on Saturday when a
weather disturbance moves through and brings most locations some
precipitation.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Friday for COZ203-290-292.

     Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ207-290.

UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...JAM



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