Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 252103

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
303 PM MDT THU AUG 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 157 PM MDT Thu Aug 25 2016

A shortwave trough over western Utah will move east and over the
forecast area and dig a bit as it does so. A jet speed maxima will
travel over southern wyoming, northeast Utah and northwest Colorado
beginning this evening. This allows the right entry region to
travel over central CO and SE UT, as well as the SW CO generally
north of Red Mtn Pass over night. The smallish vertical wind
shear, PVA and jet dynamics will allow some organized convection
to develop with lines of storms forming and a few strong storms
possible. Best areal coverage appears will be between about 04z
and 09z.

Friday and Friday night...will start off with subsidence in lee of
the trough passage, but should give way quickly way to another
round of storm development, though under weaker support. Believe
storms Friday and Friday night will a bit weaker and with a notch
less areal coverage.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 157 PM MDT Thu Aug 25 2016

The longwave pattern changes little over the weekend with a trough
over the western and central states and high pressure over the
SE U.S. and the Gulf of Mexico. This will allow a small monsoon
feed from west of the Big Bend area through New Mexico and into
southern CO. The northern half of the forecast area will remain
drier and under the col between the westerly flow over the
northern tier states and the trough over the Great Basin and
the southwest. Monday through Thursday should drier as the weak
monsoonal feed collapses to the south and east and no systems move
in from the west.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 157 PM MDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Showers and thunderstorm coverage will increase this evening and
overnight as a trough moves into the area from the west. These
storms should occasionally affect all TAF sites. Gusty outflow
winds in excess of 40 mph...small hail...locally heavy rain and
lightning will all be threats to aviation and ground interests at
the forecast terminals overnight then decrease Friday morning.
Fewer storms are expected Friday afternoon.


.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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