Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 130429
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
929 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

A STRONGER PACIFIC JET MOVING INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BEGIN
TO BREAK UP THE STAGNANT WEST COAST RIDGE...EAST COAST TROUGH
PATTERN OF THE PAST WEEK. THE LEADING STORM SYSTEM ON THE NOSE
OF THE JET IS PLOWING INTO THE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LEFT COAST OF NOAM. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BE
SUCCESSFUL IN BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE TOMORROW WHILE THE ARRIVAL
OF THE MAIN CORE OF THE JET AND ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO
CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE LEAD WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH OUR CWA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BE NOTHING MORE A THICKER BAND
OF HIGH CLOUDINESS. THIS BAND HOWEVER WILL BE A SIGNAL OF COOLER
AIR ALOFT AND AN ELEVATED FRONT THAT WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. THE CHALLENGE TO
THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE CENTERED AROUND TEMPERATURES IN
THE SHORT TERM. CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY TO IMPACT TEMPERATURES AND MIXING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CHANGING PATTERN SHOULD HELP WEAKEN THE
INVERSIONS A TAD. WARMING NICELY TODAY AND WILL USE TODAY/S HIGHS
AS A BASE FOR TOMORROW WHICH SHOULD SEE A BUMP OF 1 OR 2 DEGREES
OUTSIDE THE THICKER CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE CORE OF THE JET WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO ON
SUNDAY. WITH A FLATTER RIDGE IN PLACE THE FETCH FOR PACIFIC
MOISTURE REACHING THE ROCKIES WILL BE MORE EFFICIENT. AS THIS
MOISTURE PILES INTO THE ROCKIES SUNDAY MORNING CLOUDS WILL BE
THICKENING AND LOWERING ACROSS THE NORTHERN UTAH AND COLORADO
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO BE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND SPREADING TO THE PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN VALLEYS BY EVENING. SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS APPEARS TO BE THE TIME PERIOD WHEN JET LEVEL WINDS AND
PASSING SHORT WAVE ENERGY SUPPLIES THE BEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR
LIFTING THE MOISTURE. SATURATION AND LIFT IS IN THE LOWER END OF
THE DENDRITIC (OR SNOWFLAKE!) LAYER SO SNOW RATIOS CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGY ARE FAVORED. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF OFF AN ON SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING BUT MOSTLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THE
NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NEAR I-70 LOOK TO
SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD BELOW 10000 FEET WITH
4 TO 8 ABOVE. A COMBINATION OF SNOW AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH
COULD CAUSE SOME ISSUES DURING THIS TIME ACROSS THE HIGHER PASSES
OF OUR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THE RIDGE WILL BE REBUILDING MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS THE JET DIVES INTO THE PLAINS AND ANOTHER UPSTREAM
SYSTEM MOVES IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO AND
ACROSS THE ROCKIES DURING THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME AND A RETURN TO
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN. NOT CONFIDENT ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE INVERSIONS AS WE CONTINUE TO MELT SNOW IN THE LOWER
VALLEYS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MANY AREAS PUSHING ABOVE NORMAL SO WILL
RUN WITH BLENDED MODELS FOR NOW. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER MOVES IN
BY LATE NEXT WEEK BUT CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAKENING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 923 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT
FLIGHT CONDITION WILL REMAIN VFR. THE EXPECT WILL BE THE UINTA
BASIN NEAR KVEL WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE PLAGUED BY THIN FOG AND
HAZE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR VISIBILITIES
UNTIL 18Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...CC


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