Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 182148
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
248 PM MST Sat Nov 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 248 PM MST Sat Nov 18 2017

Dry northwesterly flow over the region on the eastern flank of a
West Coast ridge brought drying and sunshine to the area this
afternoon. Models indicated the ridge will flatten and translate
eastward tonight in response to a trough approaching from the
eastern Pacific. Regardless, the airmass will remain dry with
clouds limited to thin cirrus, mainly over the northernmost
portion of the forecast area. Fresh snow in the mountains, the
northwest plateau and the Gunnison Basin will result in strong
radiational cooling. Therefore, lowered temperatures a bit further
for those locations.

The flat ridge remains over the region Sunday with nothing but dry
air upstream. As a result, expect sunshine to continue which will
help warm air advection bring temperatures from cold morning lows
to near normal levels during the afternoon. Little change
indicated for Sunday night, so expect mostly clear skies and less
cold overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 248 PM MST Sat Nov 18 2017

A weak shortwave trough moving through the ridge and down its east
side will brush the eastern Uinta, Elkhead, Park, Gore, Flat Top,
and portions of the Elk Mountains on Monday and Monday night,
followed by another disturbance late Tuesday and Tuesday night.
This activity doesn`t look like it will generate much accumulating
snow with just few inches indicated in model output. Elsewhere,
dry weather will continue.

The ridge becomes re-established during the middle of the week
resulting in a dry northwest to westerly flow. The next chance for
precipitation arrives Friday night into Saturday for the northern
mountains as another weak shortwave works through the ridge.

Temperatures will warm through the early part of the week rising
to around 10 degrees above normal by Wednesday, remaining well
above normal through the rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1019 AM MST Sat Nov 18 2017

VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites for the next 24 hours.
Winds aloft will be out of the WNW from 30 to 40 kts with valley
winds remaining light and terrain driven through midday Sunday.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...JDC



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