Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 291756
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1156 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

CLOSED LOW REMAINS TO OUR WEST THIS MORNING AS WEAK PIECES OF
ENERGY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA CAUSING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WEAK
STORMS TO FIRE. HOWEVER...RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTING PRECIP WINDING
DOWN FOR NOW EXCEPT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHERE SOME
RETURNS ARE STILL SHOWING UP. SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ALONG THE DIVIDE BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY CONCERNS
FOR MTN PASSES OR THE LIKE. MODELS AGREE THE CLOSED LOW WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTH AND EAST TODAY AS JET ENERGY CONTINUES TO ROUND THE
BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW. THIS ENERGY WILL LEND ITSELF TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY
SINCE THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD INCREASING
INSTABILITY. CONCERNS WILL BE SOME HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND
OCCASIONAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS FROM ABOUT 3PM THROUGH 9PM. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN PLENTY
OF RAIN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS FOR INCREASED FLOODING CONCERNS.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW LIFTS ONTO THE WY-NE PLAINS ENDING UPPER
SUPPORT. OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS
THE PARK/GORE/FLAT TOP/ELK MOUNTAIN RANGES IN MARGINALLY MOIST
WEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE AND WE
MAY SEE NEAR FREEZING IN THE COLORADO HIGH VALLEYS SUCH AS THE
ROARING FORK AND GUNNISON BASIN. WITH 700MB TEMPS NEAR ZERO
DEGREES LIGHT NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ABOVE 10KFT. CRAIG/HAYDEN/STEAMBOAT ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE
NORMAL UNDER CLOUDS AND VIRGA/SHOWERS. RABBIT EARS...VAIL...
INDEPENDENCE PASSES MAY HAVE SLICK CONDITIONS TUESDAY MORNING.

FAST WEST FLOW ON TUESDAY WILL BRING A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT WILL
KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING OVER THE NORTHERN HIGHER
TERRAIN. LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. SHOWER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT BUT STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS. TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT AN OPEN TROUGH WORKS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN THEN
SWEEPS THROUGH THIS FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
TROUGH IS DEEPER IN THE 00Z RUNS. FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY
LOOKS FAIRLY ROBUST WITH THE -20C COLD CORE PASSING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE FRONT AND
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THREATEN STRONG OUTFLOW
GUSTS. 700MB TEMPS DROP AS LOW AS -4C LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
SNOW POTENTIALLY INTO THE HIGH COLORADO VALLEYS ESPECIALLY
STEAMBOAT AND VAIL. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRST WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE SEASON.

ONCE THE FRONT AND TROUGH PASS THROUGH THURSDAY...A RATHER BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE WRN US. WHILE THIS AREA
WILL MOVE AROUND SOME...THE INFLUENCE ON US REMAINS THE SAME. THAT
IS...NWLY FLOW WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. EXTENDED GUIDANCE ALSO
SHOWING A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. FROM THURSDAY ON
THEN...A QUIET TIME EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ALONG THE UT/AZ BORDER WILL SWING ACROSS SW CO
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LARGER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN FINALLY
LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL
IMPACT MOST TAF SITES BEFORE 03Z. MTNS WILL ALSO BE FREQUENTLY
OBSCURED. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 03Z WITH PATCHY
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE IF SKIES CLEAR SUFFICIENTLY. VFR CONDITIONS
GENERALLY EXPECTED 12Z-18Z TUE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/TGR
AVIATION...JAD



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