Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 161619
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1019 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY UNDER WNW FLOW. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 NEAR DEEPER MOISTURE GRADIENT
POOLING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO AS BLOW OFF
FROM HURRICANE ODILE CONTINUES WORKING NORTHWARD. WILL MAINTAIN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
MINIMAL ACTIVITY INTO THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

THE LIMITED CONVECTION EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS A WEAK CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION OVER THE
AREA EFFECTIVELY BLOCKS THE SOUTHERN MOISTURE. THE DEEPER MOISTURE
OVER NEW MEXICO AND ARIZONA...MUCH OF IT ORIGINATING FROM
HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM ODILE...WILL CONTINUE TO LAP AT OUR
SOUTHERN EDGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE...WITH GENERALLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE FAR
SOUTHERN EDGE INTO THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...WHERE ISOLATED STORMS
MAY DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS...WITH SCATTERED OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP ODILE`S DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY. THE 00Z MODEL
RUNS REMAIN RELUCTANT TO CARRY MUCH MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY. WENT AHEAD AND KEPT THE INCREASING TREND FOR
POPS THROUGH THE DAY. BUT HAVE MODIFIED THE AREAL COVERAGE
SOMEWHAT...AND REDUCED THE HIGHEST POPS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN EDGES
EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN SPREAD INTO THE OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. BUT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STILL REMAINS IN THE 25-40 PERCENT RANGE AT BEST OVER THE FAVORED
SOUTHERN AND FAR WESTERN MOUNTAINS...WITH LESS ELSEWHERE.

MODELS KICK THE REMNANTS OF ODILE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH DROPS SOUTH ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STRUGGLING A BIT WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE GFS DRIVING THE CUTTING OFF
LOW OFF THE WEST COAST WEST OF SAN DIEGO...WHILE THE GFS SENDS A
FILLING SYSTEM INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN. LATER SCENARIO WOULD
INCREASE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE EC SOLUTION KEEPS US ON THE DRY
SIDE. ATTM...WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND RUN WITH CHANCE POPS
FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER VALLEYS...TAPERING DOWN INTO THE
LOWER VALLEYS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM AND ADJUSTMENTS AND FURTHER
FINE TUNING WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BASED ON WINNING MODEL SOLUTION. FOR
NOW...WILL RUN WITH PERSISTENCE EARLY ON...FOLLOWED BY A GENERAL
COOLING TREND AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1011 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FROM ABOUT 20Z TO 02Z...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. KTEX
AND KASE HAVE ABOUT A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBY IN BRIEF
HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCAL MOUNTAINTOP
OBSCURATIONS AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 40 MPH CLOSE TO THE
STRONGER CELLS...WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
SMALL HAIL.

OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC/EH
LONG TERM...EH/JDC
AVIATION...CC



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