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000
FXUS65 KGJT 092047
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
247 PM MDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT SUN MAR 9 2014

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER FAST MOVING PACIFIC
SYSTEM DUE IN MONDAY EVENING. BEFORE THEN...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH TEMPERATURES BOUNCING TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL READINGS AS SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE
DAY. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH THE
STRONGEST SPEEDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COLORADO.

DEEPER MOISTURE AND CLOUDS PUSH IN BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH A
STRONG A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY. APPROACHING SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH BRIEF PERIOD
OF MODERATE TO STRONG OROGRAPHICS AND CAA WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SNOW TO MOST OF OUR MOUNTAIN LOCALES. FOCUS INITIALLY WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL
GET ACTIVITY ROLLING BY MID EVENING MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A QUICK
BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH...BUT CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW COMES BACK AROUND TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...WHICH
TYPICALLY ENDS SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THESE MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER...THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE EASTERN
UINTA MOUNTAINS NEAR MANILA AND DUTCH JOHN ON TUESDAY AND
DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THINGS COULD GET INTERESTING IN
A HURRY IN THIS AREA...MORE ON THIS BELOW IN THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION. WILL BE ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE PARK
AND GORE RANGES ALONG WITH THE FLAT TOPS BEGINNING LATE MONDAY
EVENING AND WILL RUN IT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DURATION
IS SHORT...BUT INTENSITY SHOULD RESULT IN A QUICK 5 TO 10 INCHES.
AS THE FRONT WORKS SOUTH...SO WILL THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL AND LATER
SHIFTS MAY NEED TO EXPAND ON HIGHLIGHTS. AFTER A MILD DAY ON
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DROP OFF MONDAY NIGHT WITH H7
TEMPS TUMBLING BACK INTO THE -5 TO -10C RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT SUN MAR 9 2014

700 MB COLD FRONT EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY TUE AHEAD OF A
SHEARING MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS THAT REACHES THE FORECAST TUESDAY AND
THEN LAYS OVER IN EAST-WEST FASHION ACROSS THE SOUTH BY 12Z WED.
DYNAMIC AND NW OROGRAPHIC LIFT COUPLED WITH MOISTURE AND COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE PRESENT TUE MORNING FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTH. 700 MB TEMPS COOL TO -8C TO -10C ACROSS THE
NORTH FOR SNOW DOWN TO MOST NORTHERN VALLEY FLOORS...WITH A MIX OF
RAIN AND/OR SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEYS.

PRECIPITATION SHIFTS MORE TO THE CENTRAL MTNS INTO THE SAN JUANS TUE
AFTERNOON. DYNAMIC LIFT WANES BUT MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES
SHOULD MAINTAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SNOW BEGINS TO
DECREASE ACROSS THE NRN CO MTNS TUE AFTERNOON AS 700 MB FLOW SHIFTS
RATHER QUICKLY TO AN UNFAVORABLE NORTHEAST DIRECTION.

HOWEVER...NORTHEAST FLOW COULD FAVOR SNOW OVER THE ERN UINTA MTNS ON
TUE. BUILT THE SNOW FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN UINTAS PREDICATED ON
THIS NE FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS AREA SHOULD BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE FUTURE ADVISORY.

DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. WED LOOKS MOSTLY DRY SAVE FOR PERHAPS A
FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SAN JUANS.

THE WESTERN END OF THE SHEARING TROUGH AXIS BREAKS OFF AND FORMS A
CLOSED LOW OVER SRN NV/SWRN UT WED. 12Z NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER
BY DEVELOPING THIS FEATURE FARTHER SOUTH OVER AZ. 12Z
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS THEN BRING THIS FEATURE EAST ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS THU AS IT GETS REINCORPORATED INTO THE FLOW. WILL CARRY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR THE SRN MTNS ON THU BECAUSE OF THIS.

WEST COAST RIDGE REBUILDS FRI. ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE RIDGE BEFORE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE PLAINS NEXT
WEEKEND...BRUSHING THE NRN CO MTNS ON SAT.

TEMPS COOL NOTICEABLY ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND SHOULD
REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WED. TEMPS WILL SHOW A WARMING TREND THE
LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT SUN MAR 9 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COLORADO WYOMING BORDER AND SHIFT SOUTH TO
NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 40 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM MDT TUESDAY
     COZ004-013.


UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JDC