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000
FXUS65 KGJT 121004
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
404 AM MDT WED MAR 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM MDT WED MAR 12 2014

WHILE MUCH OF THE ENERGY FROM TUESDAY/S TROUGH PASSAGE HAS MOVED
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES...A PORTION HAS RETROGRADED AND CLOSED OFF
IN SOUTHERN NEVADA WITH A WEAK ASSOCIATED SHEAR AXIS STRETCHED
ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH AND SW COLORADO.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN MTNS IN THE
WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE. NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THURSDAY...THE WEAK NEVADA LOW BEGINS TO PROGRESS TOWARDS WESTERN
ARIZONA. MOISTURE INCREASES AS THE UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO SW
PROVIDING WEAK OROGRAPHIC LIFT INTO THE ABAJO AND SW SAN JUAN
MTNS. INSTABILITY SEEMS TO BE VERY WEAK NORTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS
SO HAVE LEFT OUT A THUNDERSTORM MENTION FOR NOW. ONLY LIGHT
CONVECTIVE ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ABOVE 8000FT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM MDT WED MAR 12 2014

THE CLOSED LOW FILLS AND DRIFTS EASTWARD...PASSING SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MOISTURE LIFTING
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
THE SAN JUANS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. RAW SNOWFALL OUTPUT SUGGESTS ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE LIGHT THOUGH GFS HINTS AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOW END ADVISORY
AMOUNTS FOR THE SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY TO END THE WEEK.

NEXT SYSTEM DROPS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
GENERATING PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHWEST COLORADO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. EC AND GFS WERE SIMILAR...
THOUGH GFS A BIT MORE ENERGETIC. DESPITE DIFFERENCES...BOTH
INDICATED IT WILL GET WINDY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. APPEARS LIKELY THIS STORM
WILL REQUIRE HILITES. AT THIS POINT...GIVEN SHORT DURATION EXPECT
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW WITH BLOWING SNOW. GFS HANGS ONTO LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LESS
AMPLIFIED EC SOLUTION DRY.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW SETTLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY AS EC CARVES OUT A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE TROUGH OVER
THE AREA. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES...OPTED TO STAY THE COURSE
WITH THE BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY THOUGH
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL LIMIT WARMING BY A FEW DEGREES.
SYSTEM DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. HARD TO BE TOO DEFINITIVE WITH
RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 404 AM MDT WED MAR 12 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.

UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL