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000
FXUS65 KGJT 112332
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
532 PM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

SHEARING E-W ORIENTED TROF IS DROPPING ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO
AND UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IS SHOWING TWO CIRCULATIONS
BECOMING MORE DEFINED IN WATER VAPOR THIS AFTERNOON...ONE
RETROGRADING TOWARD SALT LAKE CITY AND ANOTHER DROPPING ACROSS THE
CHEYENNE RIDGE OF THE FRONT RANGE. DECENT COLD POOL ARCING
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WITH THE DELTA T OR
INSTABILITY AXIS LINING UP WELL WITH MOST ROBUST CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. DRY AIR IN THE LOW LAYERS AND THE CONVECTIVE NATURE IS
HELPING SNOW MAKE IT TO THE GROUND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 40S. LOOKING AT SNOW STAKES AND SNOTELS A GOOD 6 TO 10
INCHES LOOKS TO HAVE FALLEN ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS AIDED BY THE INSTABILITY.

STILL EXPECT A RATHER QUICK DOWNTURN TO THE PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. THE TWO CIRCULATIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO DIVERGE WITH THE WESTERN CIRCULATION LIKELY FORMING A
CLOSED LOW IN THE MID LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN
NEVADA. THIS WILL BECOME A REX LOW AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND KEEPS THINGS MORE QUIET FOR
WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE IN PLACE WITH JUST A FEW
HIGH BASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS POPPING OVER THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE
SAN JUANS WHERE THE INSTABILITY WILL BE THE HIGHEST. WITH CLEARING
SKIES TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN LAST
NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
HIGHER VALLEYS AND BASINS. TOMORROW/S HIGHS SHOULD BE A TAD WARMER
BUT THEY STILL LOOK LIKE THEY/LL END UP ON THE COLD SIDE OF NORMAL.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO GET A KICK EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
STRONGER ENERGY WORKS IT/S WAY THROUGH THE RIDGE. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT VECTS AROUND 300K SHOW THIS LOW PULLING IN THE PACIFIC
MOISTURE TAP OFF THE BAJA COAST WHICH IT LOOKS TO USE FOR
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING INTO THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AFOREMENTIONED BEGINS TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD
ON THURSDAY WITH THE HELP OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMING ONSHORE
OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND MOVING EAST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
THOUGH THE CENTER OF ENERGY FROM THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MAINLY
STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE GRAND JUNCTION CWA...WE ARE EXPECTING A
FEW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO INSTABILITY
AND WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ON THURSDAY IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THE BEST FORCING ON THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO STAY JUST SOUTH OF THE
FOUR CORNERS BUT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AS FAR NORTH AS THE UNCOMPAHGRE AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE CENTRAL
MTNS. ONCE THIS DISTURBANCE PASSES...THE REGION REMAINS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A JET MAX OVERHEAD WHICH MEANS THE RECENT
PATTERN OF ACTIVE WEATHER EVERY FEW DAYS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND EC BRING THE NEXT
WEATHER DISTURBANCE INTO WESTERN COLORADO ON SATURDAY WHICH HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE MAJOR IMPACTS ALONG COLORADO HIGHWAYS
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THIS
DISTURBANCE IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SO SHOULD SWING THROUGH WESTERN
COLORADO QUICKLY AND NOT CAUSE PROBLEMS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
TIMING COULD CHANGE BUT CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AS MODELS THIS FAR
OUT AGREE ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION.

FROM SUNDAY ON IS WHEN MODEL CONFIDENCE DECREASES. THE LATEST 12Z
EC HAS DRASTICALLY CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS 00Z RUN TO LINE UP
MORE CLOSELY WITH THE 00Z AND 12Z GFS RUNS WHICH BUILD HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE EC DOES KEEP NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUGGESTS A DISTURBANCE COMES
THROUGH MID WEEK BUT THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS VERY WEAK AT THIS
TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MDT TUE MAR 11 2014

CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE THE NAME OF THE GAME THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PLENTY OF AREAS REPORTING MVFR TO IFR AND BELOW UNDER THE STRONGER
SHOWERS. MTN TAF SITES TO INCLUDE KASE...KEGE...AND KTEX WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW INTERSPERSED WITH BKN SKIES
AND NO PRECIP FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNSET CAUSES THE
CONVECTION TO END AND THUS THE SNOWFALL. REMAINING TAF SITES MAY
SEE A PASSING SHOWER BUT CONDITIONS BELOW VFR ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
GUSTY SURFACE WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WILL ALSO STOP SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. SKIES WILL START CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVING WAY TO A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY TOMORROW.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...TGR