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908
FXUS65 KGJT 251634
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
1034 AM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

An approaching area of low pressure off the California coast will
cause the ridge axis to become more oriented from north to south
as opposed to northwest to southeast. In the grand scheme of
things, this won`t make much of a change for our weather.
Afternoon convection looks possible over the San Juans though the
short-range models all agree that the best chances look to be to
our south and east. Even so, marginal CAPE and some modest
instability may lend itself to a few showers or storms so forecast
captures this thinking. No mention of smoke this afternoon for
southern areas though depending on upper level winds it may need
to be added later on today. Temperatures will inch up a few
degrees from those seen yesterday but aside from that, another
warm, sunny day on tap.

By Monday, the low pressure will become a low amplitude trough and
will continue shifting the ridge axis east eventually causing our
windflow to become more zonal in nature. A bit more convective
build up is possible over the higher terrain on Monday but any
precipitation looks to be very minimal in nature with the San
Juans again favored. Temperatures will remain on their upward
trend with high temperatures flirting with triple digits for some
valleys. All in all, minimal change from day to day.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Southwesterly flow will increase on Tuesday and again on Wednesday
as a broad upper level trough digs into the western CONUS. A jet
maxima at the 250mb level will be ejected ahead of the trough during
this timeframe which will result in stronger winds mixing down to
the surface. Given the continued dry state of the atmosphere ahead
of this trough (as evident by the previously situated ridge as well
as low precipitable water values of 0.25 to 0.35 inches), relative
humidities will be quite low. Marginal to critical fire weather
conditions keep looking more likely for Tuesday and Wednesday.

The trough will push through the forecast area the latter half of
the week with temperatures cooling closer to seasonal norms in
response to the colder air mass behind the passage of the trough.
The latest GFS run now appears to be on board with the Euro`s
solution for the weekend by bringing yet another trough into the
Great Basin by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 955 AM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

High pressure will continue to maintain VFR conditions at the
terminals through the next 24 hours. Hazy/smokey conditions will
remain possible as smoke from the Brian Head fire is transported
into eastern Utah and western Colorado. Winds will be typical
diurnal terrain driven winds. A stray shower or thunderstorm will
be possible over the San Juan mountains today.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 955 AM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Hot dry conditions are expected today and Monday as a ridge of
high pressure resides over the western states. This ridge is
expected to flatten out on Tuesday as a mainly dry cold front
pushes into the area from the northwest. This dry cold front may
result in increasing southerly winds and high based thunderstorms.
Forecast confidence is low on the winds and the specific area of
the thunderstorm development.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...MMS
AVIATION...Larry
FIRE WEATHER...Larry