Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 031644
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1044 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

AT LONG LAST...HIGH PRESSURE IS FINALLY HERE. IR SATELLITE SHOT IS
SHOWING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
WHICH IS A SIGHT FOR SORE EYES. TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON TAP
WITH SOME CUMULUS OVER RIDGES BUT COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY ALSO FORM OVER THE HIGHEST PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUANS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT BY AND LARGE...A NICE SPRING DAY IN
STORE. HIGH TEMPS WILL JUMP 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. THE NAM IS HIGHLIGHTING SOME POP AND DROP
SHOWERS OVER THE SAN JUANS WHILE THE GFS SHOWS NOTHING. FOLLOWED
GFS`S LEAD AND TOOK OUT ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE THEIR RISE WITH TEMPS REACHING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...BEEN QUITE A WHILE SINCE WE`VE SAID THAT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

ALL GOOD THINGS MUST COME TO AN END HOWEVER AND THIS BEGINS
THURSDAY AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTS TO INVADE THE GREAT
BASIN. EVEN THOUGH THE LOW WILL STILL BE OFFSHORE OF
CALIFORNIA...ITS EFFECTS WILL BE FELT THURSDAY EVENING AS SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS FORM OVER THE DIVIDE THANKS TO WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND DAYTIME HEATING FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. ON
FRIDAY...PRECIP BECOMES A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD BUT STILL MORE
SHOWERY IN NATURE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. PREVIOUS RUNS SHOWED A
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REINFORCED BY THE JET STREAM
ALOFT. WHILE THE GRADIENT STILL REMAINS TIGHT...THE JET IS NOW
PROGGED TO STAY MORE TO OUR SOUTH. GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTING THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH AND WHILE WE`LL SEE SOME
GUSTY WINDS...AT THIS POINT IN TIME...THEY DON`T LOOK OVERLY
STRONG FOR OUR AREA.

BY SATURDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP BRINGING
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS TO THE AREA. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THERE WILL BE TIMES OF
PRECIP AND DEFINITE LULLS. HEAVIER PRECIP LOOKS POSSIBLE AFTER
NOON ON SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE A LULL OCCURS
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THEN PRECIP PICKS UP AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY...THE LOW WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO
THE FRONT RANGE BUT WRAPAROUND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
CLOUDS...COOL TEMPS AND SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1043 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A FEW
BRIEF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL DOMINATE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...EH



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