Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 282316

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
516 PM MDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 322 PM MDT Sat May 28 2016

A modest amount of moisture will continue to be entrained over
the region as the next low pressure system develops over southern
California through Sunday...then gradually shifts east. Today`s
relatively low grade convection will continue into the evening
before diminishing as the diurnal assist diminishes. Look for a
repeat on Sunday as temperatures approach, but still stay shy, of normal
for late May. Low temps will also see a little warming but will
also stay below normal as we should see good clearing each night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 322 PM MDT Sat May 28 2016

A northern branch shortwave trough will move over the northern
Rockies on Monday and may result in an uptick in mainly afternoon
convection as it brushes our forecast area. In addition, the
southern California low will approach our area but will remain to
our southwest. The persistent southwest flow will continue to
carry modest moisture into the region through Tuesday. Behind
these features, a ridge of high pressure will develop along the
west coast early in the work week and then move into the Great
Basin by midweek. This high pressure center will continue to
strengthen and will remain to our west through the end of the
period. As a result, temperatures will top out a few degrees above
normal late in the week. Less, but sufficient moisture will remain
over the region for a slight chance of mainly mountain showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon into next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 515 PM MDT Sat May 28 2016

Showers and thunderstorms have formed across portions of the
forecast area but have not posed any threats to TAF sites yet. A
few showers, maybe even a storm, is possible for KASE or KEGE but
confidence not high enough to include in their TAFs. VCSH will
suffice for now and will amend as necessary. Once the sun starts
setting, most convection will start dying down, too. Expect a
similar day tomorrow with showers and storms firing by late
morning or early afternoon.


.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

CO...Flash Flood Watch until 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ007-009.



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