Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 192125
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
325 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A FEW STORMS HAVE POPPED UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED. THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN WEAK AND SHORT
LIVED. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWED UNIMPRESSIVE CAPE AND SHEAR SO DON/T
EXPECT ANY INTENSIFICATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND STORMS WILL
COMPLETELY DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND PERSISTS ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A CLOSED PACIFIC LOW MAKING ITS WAY INLAND OVER
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL HOVER AROUND
0.6 TO 0.7 INCHES WHICH IS SUFFICIENT TO FUEL DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS. MODELS
SUGGEST THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL RANGES FAVORED.

NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE PACIFIC LOW
CONTINUES TO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN.

EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS AND SATURDAY/S HIGHS NEAR PERSISTENCE...OR
A ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD
MODERATE AS MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INCREASE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE CLOSED LOW LIFTS THROUGH CENTRAL-NORTHERN NEVADA ON SUNDAY.
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS IN PLACE SUNDAY MORNING. THE 12Z NAM
PRODUCES A STRONG CONVERGENT-DIVERGENT LINEAR COUPLET GENERALLY
ALONG THE UT-CO STATE LINE LATE SUNDAY AS THE JET LIFTS THROUGH
WESTERN UTAH. THE BAROCLINIC FEATURE LAYS OVER ACROSS WESTERN
COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE JET WEAKENS INTO EASTERN UTAH.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES FROM 35 TO 50 KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. BUT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY AND THUS THE STRENGTH OF THUNDERSTORMS. STILL AN
ISOLATED STORM COULD BECOME STRONG SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE POT VORT CENTER THROUGH NE UTAH EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR
CONTINUED STORMS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT MAINLY NORTH OF
I-70.

MONDAY THE UPPER LOW OPENS AS IT LIFTS THROUGH WYOMING AND ITS
ASSOCIATED JET STREAK WEAKENS OVER NW COLORADO. MOISTURE ERODES
FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE DAY WHILE STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER NW
COLORADO. SHOWERS ERODE TO THE NE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT BASIN. A FEW STORMS MAY FIRE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES REBOUND
QUICKLY BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE
PROGRESSES OVERHEAD.

BEGINNING FRIDAY THE NEXT AMPLIFIED PACIFIC TROUGH IS HANDLED VERY
DIFFERENTLY BY THE CONSISTENTLY PROGRESSIVE GFS THAT THREATENS
ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THE NEW EC MODEL HOWEVER HAS
KEPT THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE SW AND LIFTS MUCH OF THE PACIFIC
TROUGH ENERGY NE THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. FOR NOW THERE IS A
MENTION OF SPREADING SHOWERS NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1046 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
OF NORTHEAST UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE HIGHEST RIDGES WITH LITTLE IMPACT
EXPECTED FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS TODAY. HOWEVER...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
WILL OCCUR NEAR STORMS WITH SOME INCREASE IN SPEEDS EXPECTED AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS AS STORMS COLLAPSE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CONVECTION DIMINISHES AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...NL


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