Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 021750
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1150 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

DRIER AIR HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS
OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO. RAP MODEL INDICATE THAT A GUST FRONT WILL
FORM OFF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD WESTWARD...REACHING
THE SRN PORTION OF SAN JUAN COUNTY UTAH THIS EVENING. CURRENT
FORECAST GRIDS SHOW THIS TREND...BUT WILL FINE TUNE AS THE DAY
EVOLVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

NOCTURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS MORNING GENERALLY SOUTH OF
MOAB UTAH...DOWN THROUGH NUCLA...AND OURAY DUE TO A WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSING OVERHEAD. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE MOST OF
THIS PRECIP WILL BE OVER BY OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. FORECAST DROPS
MOST PRECIP OFF BY 12Z BUT WILL KEEP ISOLD CHANCES FOR MTNS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SHIFTING A BIT WEST NORTHWEST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...USHERING IN SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A DECREASE IN CONVECTION THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STORMS
WILL STILL BE FIRING...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A FEW
LATE DAY CELLS DRIFTING OVER THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. GUSTY WINDS
REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH HIGH BASED STORMS AND DROPPING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH READINGS REMAINING 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR SOME TIME...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
MAY PERSIST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE SAN JUANS
AND VALLEYS SOUTH SEEING THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIP. LITTLE
CHANGE SATURDAY AS PWATS REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE
NORMAL MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN BEING FAVORED. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE
INTERESTING AS MODELS INCREASE PWATS TO NEAR AN INCH. AS THIS
OCCURS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS FEATURE STAYS OVER THE NRN PLAINS BUT EVEN
SO...MODELS SHOW A MARKED UPTICK IN PRECIP AS THE TRAILING EDGE OF
THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION. THIS UPTICK LOOKS TO CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY AS CONVECTION CONTINUES. MINOR PIECES OF ENERGY WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY KEEPING PRECIP IN THE
PICTURE THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN SEEN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE RATHER CLOUDY AND WITH MORE
PRECIP EXPECTED...TEMPS WILL DROP TO MORE NORMAL VALUES...IF NOT A
WEE BIT BELOW WHICH WILL BE A NICE RESPITE FROM THE HOT TEMPS
WE`VE EXPERIENCED LATELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR EAST OF A LINE FROM KCEZ-KTEX-
KMTJ-KASE-KSBS. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED +TSRA WITH CIGS OBSCURING
MOUNTAIN PEAKS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KDRO WITH
G30KTS FROM NEARBY STORMS AND WIND SHIFT FROM THE NE-E.
STORMS WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED
-TSRA/-SHRA PERSISTING TO 12Z.

NORTHWEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THIS AREA. ONE OR TWO ISOLATED SHORT LIVED -TSRA MAY
OCCUR BETWEEN 19Z THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING...BUT
UNLIKELY TO IMPACT ANY TAF SITE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...PF


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