Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KGJT 242141
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
241 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

AS ANTICIPATED THE LAST COLD DISTURBANCE WITHIN THIS PROTRACTED
STORM IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. PERSISTENT SNOW IN THE COLORADO I-70 CORRIDOR PROMPTED
AN ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOULD WIND DOWN QUICKLY AS THE SUNSETS. SOME OROGRAPHIC NW SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES UNDER THE COLD AIR MASS TONIGHT WILL
PRODUCE COLD MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES. THEN A CLASSIC OVERRUNNING
EVENT BEGINS ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TOO
WILL FAVOR NW CO WITH EVEN MORE SNOWFALL. THE INVERSION AT JUST
ABOVE 700MB WILL LIMIT VERTICAL MIXING AND PRODUCE LIGHTER WINDS
IN THE VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

NORTHWEST GRADIENT FLOW WILL BE ABATING AS THE JET AXIS CONTINUES
TO TRANSLATE FARTHER EAST. THE PACIFIC MOISTURE FEED THAT HAVE
TARGETED THE PARK/GORE RANGES AND FLAT TOP MOUNTAINS WILL BE
DIMINISHING AS OROGRAPHIC LIFT WEAKENS. SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED
OVER RABBIT EARS AND VAIL PASS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THE
SNOWFALL RATE WILL BE DECREASING. BY WED AFTERNOON THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF OROGRAPHIC SNOW WILL BE SHRINKING WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. THIS WOULD BE GOOD NEWS FOR PEOPLE TRAVELING ON EITHER
SIDE OF VAIL PASS OR RABBIT EARS. FLURRIES WILL BE LINGERING INTO
WED EVENING...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE DONE.

THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS UNEVENTFUL AS
THE WEST COAST RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. THE JET AXIS LIFTS NORTH
OF COLORADO...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR REBOUNDING TEMPS (MORE SO WHERE
NO SNOW EXISTS SUCH AS THE LOWER DESERT VALLEYS). DID UNDERCUT
TEMPS...PARTICULARLY GUNNISON...DUE TO RECENT SNOWFALL.

MONDAY...THE GFS IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH A NEGATIVE TILT PACIFIC
STORM THAT PUNCHES CALIFORNIA AND SPREADS INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
THE ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THIS WINTER STORM...BUT STILL
RELATIVELY ROBUST. THIS STORM BEARS WATCHING AS IT MAY HAVE
IMPLICATIONS FOR UTAH AND COLORADO. IF MODEL TRENDS HOLD...CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BUT ANY IMPACTS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COLORADO DIVIDE MOUNTAINS UNTIL AROUND
00Z. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION FROM THE ELKHEAD
RANGE TO THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS IN THE SOUTH. SNOW WILL IMPACT
KRIL...KEGE...KASE...AND KTEX BRINGING ABOUT PERIODS OF IFR AND
EVEN LIFR CIGS AND VSBY. ONLY ISOLATED -SHSN EXPECTED AT THE OTHER
TAF SITES. SOME MTN OBSCURATION WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE THROUGH TONIGHT. TUESDAY CLOUDS AND CIGS WILL LOWER AFT
12Z ACROSS NW COLORADO WITH MTNS OBSCURED EAST OF A LINE FROM
MEEKER TO GUNNISON. SNOW WILL LOWER VIS TO LESS THAN 3SM AND CIGS
TO BLO 030 FOR KSBS KHDN KEGE KASE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ007-
     008.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO NOON MST WEDNESDAY
     FOR COZ004-010-013.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ004-005-
     010-013.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...JOE


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.