Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 211726

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1126 AM MDT SAT MAY 21 2016

Issued at 1126 AM MDT Sat May 21 2016

Southwesterly winds have increased as upper level jet swings in
from the west. Advisories are all on track as stronger winds
continue to mix to the surface today. Winds in the mountains will
continue to increase through Sunday morning as some decoupling
occurs in the protected valleys tonight.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 305 AM MDT Sat May 21 2016

The center of a large low pressure system continues rotating in
place over southeast Oregon. Its cold front will stretch north to
south across Utah today and make little progress east. The strong
low level wind band and jet stream will also slowly move east over
western and central Utah. This will cause surface winds to nudge
up again today. Increasing cloud cover may inhibit some mixing but
given the predicted gradient it shouldn`t matter much. The wind
advisories for eastern Utah (with the exception of the Eastern
Uinta Basin) and portions of extreme western Colorado are well
justified. Have held off expanding them further east as the
tighter pressure gradient doesn`t seem to spread much east of the
colorado and utah border until this evening and overnight.

On Sunday the low center makes little progress east and instead
lifts to the northeast into the Canadian Rockies with the tail of
the trough pushing across our northern counties. The cold front
will move through the forecast area, but the strongest forcing
will remain across the north. The portion of the system moving
through the forecast area will remain moisture starved so only
isolated at best thunderstorm coverage is expected.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 340 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016

A trough remains over the Intermountain West with a stronger
shortwave still timed to pass next Thursday. A slow warming trend
through Wednesday will cool down again on Thursday. Late-day
convection looks to favor the northern and eastern mountains.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Sat May 21 2016

Strong pressure gradient will remain nearly stationary over the
region over the next 24 hours. Strong southwesterly winds will
persist. All taf sites will experience windy conditions. There is
a chance that blowing dust may affect visibility over the area,
especially over southeast Utah and southwest Colorado. Low level
wind shear is also possible late tonight as the lower valleys
decouple...but chances are likely there will be little LLWS below


.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ003.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ001-006-020.

UT...Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for UTZ023-025-028.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for UTZ022-027-029.



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