Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 140939

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
239 AM MST Sun Jan 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 239 AM MST Sun Jan 14 2018

Low stratus deck across the northern mountains has been slowly
eroding overnight as drier air mass rolls into the forecast area.
Expect another mild and dry day with plenty of sun with the
exception being over the northern mountains near the Wyoming
border where a few light snow showers will be possible this
afternoon and through the night tonight. Potential actually picks
up a notch after midnights as strong front drives south along the
Front Range. This will flip H7 flow around to the N-NE with some
"upslope" conditions on the eastern side of the Park Range. Some
splash over cloud cover and snow showers are expected, although
no appreciable accumulations anticipated. Colder air will spill
across the Northwest Plateau southward to the north facing slopes
of the Bookcliffs late tonight and Monday before stalling north of
the I-70 corridor. So the majority of the forecast area will bask
in temps 5 to 10 degrees above normal for a few more days while
the northern-tier zones will see readings dropping to more
seasonal normals on Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 239 AM MST Sun Jan 14 2018

A trough of low pressure over the west and a trough over the east
will pinch a narrow ridge of high pressure over our area. This
will result in dry conditions on Tuesday with temperatures still
above seasonal. A shortwave will try its best to break down this
narrow ridge as it moves across the northern Rockies Tuesday
evening into Wednesday with little fanfare across our CWA. The
latest GFS, unlike previous runs, has trended more towards the
drier ECMWF and Canadian. Chances are more probable that we will
just see some passing mid and high cloud cover, with little in the
way of precipitation. Northwest flow developing behind this
shortwave Thursday morning may result in some light orographic
snowfall for the northern mountains, but that`s about it. A
transitory ridge will slide back into the area for Thursday, with
southwest flow increasing on Friday ahead of the next storm
system. This storm system coming in late Friday into Saturday
looks more promising, packing decent moisture in the realm of 3 to
4 g/kg specific humidity and a much colder air mass. The timing
of the cold air is key to snowfall as the ECMWF and Canadian are
more progressive with the cold air than the GFS, with a difference
of Friday evening versus Saturday morning. H7 temps lower to
between -10C and -15C and models are fairly consistent on these
values. Brings some hope for snow lovers out there, but models do
have a tendency to change looking that far out into the future.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 239 AM MST Sun Jan 14 2018

Low stratus cloud cover will linger over the northern mountains
in western Colorado through 15Z before burning off as drier air
moves back into the region. Expect VFR conditions at all terminal
sites tonight. Some low cloud cover and possibly a few snow
showers will move back across the northern mountains late this
evening as a cold front moves south along the Front Range of




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