


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
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365 FXUS65 KGJT 271132 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 532 AM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and dry conditions dominate the forecast through the weekend. - An influx in moisture leads to increasing precipitation chances early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 407 AM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Above-nomral temperatures return to the region today with light, southwesterly flow aloft. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected due to the increasing temperatures and single-digit relative humidity values this afternoon. Winds remain on the lighter side, but localized gusts exceeding 25 mph are possible, especially along and north of I-70. A weak shortwave disturbance is progged to slide across northeast Utah tomorrow. Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out over the Uinta Mountains. Storms could produce gusty outflow winds and fire starts. However, this is a lower confidence forecast with differences in the amount of moisture available between models. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 220 PM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025 This weekend a ridge of high pressure builds over the region causing temperatures to rise 5-10 degrees above normal. For the most part conditions will remain dry although models are hinting at the return of moisture as a cold front moves from the Northern Rockies out over the Plains. The front pushes moisture in from the north and it may be enough for isolated showers in the afternoon. The other pocket of moisture will be confined along the Front Range so that may support showers along the Divide. On Monday a shortwave along the California coast begins to move inland. This along with the high pressure will increase southerly flow and ultimately advect deeper moisture in the from the south and east. This should cause the coverage of showers and storms to increase across the forecast area. Models are struggling with how to handle the shortwave to our southwest. Whether this wave is progressive or stalls out, which is a common problem with these systems. Therefore the details uncertain, but with the moisture in place afternoon convection is looking more likely Tuesday through Thursday. The thing to also watch is the potential for shortwaves across the northern tier of the country as they can send weak fronts into the region that disrupt the moisture and temporarily displace it to the south. The increased moisture should cause a slight decrease in temperatures mid to late week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 530 AM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025 VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period with mostly clear skies and southwest winds gusting up to 20-25 knots this afternoon. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAA LONG TERM...KJS AVIATION...TGJT