Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 010533
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1133 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO ERN UTAH TONIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A STORM OR TWO KEEPS REGENERATING AFTER
SUNSET...APPEARS TO BE SOME FORCING MECHANISM THAT KEEP THESE
SHOWERS ONGOING. THE HRRR SHOWS A LINE SHOWERS MOVING INTO WRN
COLORADO AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION AND KEEP
ISOLATED NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015

A VERY WEAK WAVE PASSING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THAT IS
BUILDING INTO THE AREA IS HELPING ADD A BIT OF DYNAMIC LIFT FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE UINTA MOUNTAINS. ACROSS THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALL OVER
RIDGES...WEAK AND SHORT-LIVED. THE STRONGER CELL OVER NORTHEAST
UT SHOULD PUSH A BOUNDARY AND SOME SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
ADJACENT UINTA BASIN. BELIEVE THIS AREA OF SLIGHTLY ENHANCED
CONVECTION WILL TRAVEL EAST AND ACROSS MOFFAT COUNTY...CO THIS
EVENING...THOUGH THERE WILL BE LESS TERRAIN INFLUENCE SO EXPECT
THE STORMS TO BE LESS INTENSE. THE REST OF THE STORMS WILL
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET...BUT THE NAM12 SHOWS ANOTHER LITTLE WAVE
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OVERNIGHT SO THERE SHOULD BE SOME
CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER THE RIDGES OF WESTERN CO...WITH A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF BRIEF LIGHT RAIN BENEATH A FEW OF THEM.

THE CENTRAL AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW MOVES
INLAND ON MONDAY. A NOTICABLE INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL
OCCUR ON MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND PAC NW
TROUGH INTERACT. THESE WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THOUGH DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE
REGION...CONVECTIVE INDICES ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS INITIATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS THEN TRACKING TO
THE NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015

THE LEFT END (SOUTHWEST FLOW) OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
REIGN OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS THE WEEK CONTINUES...KEEPING
DRIER AIR AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. PWAT VALUES
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR ONE QUARTER OF
AN INCH WHICH WILL BE BARELY SUFFICIENT FOR RAIN TO REACH THE
GROUND WITH NO DYNAMICAL FORCE. THE GFS, EC, AND CMC ARE IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON A H5 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. LONG TERM MODELS ARE PROGGING
THE REMAINS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM TO GET CAUGHT IN THIS DOMINENT
SOUTHWEST FLOW TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT WITH ALL TROPICAL
SYSTEMS IN THE LONG RANGE THERE COULD BE MAJOR DEVIATIONS IN THE
TRACK OF THE STORM IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS. THAT BEING
SAID...CURRENT LONG RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING A CLOUDY AND WET
WEEKEND ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD KEEP
THE POTENTIALLY WET PATTERN IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH THE BEST ACTIVITY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18Z WITH
CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO
35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY SHOWERS.

SOUTHWEST GRADIENT FLOW WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
LOCALIZED G25-30KTS WILL OCCUR IN THE DESERT VALLEYS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...CC/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JDC



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