Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 232257

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
457 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 239 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Mostly sunny skies are in place across the forecast area this
afternoon along with a milder airmass. This milder airmass is
resulting in cooler temperatures district wide. Currently at
Grand Junction Regional Airport it is 89 degrees which is 8
degrees cooler than it was 24 hours ago. On average temperatures
are running 5 to 10 degrees cooler around the area than what was
observed 24 hours ago.

As previously stated mostly sunny skies are being reported across
the area. However, GOES-16 visible satellite imagery continues to
show the Brian Head fire burning near Cedar City Utah. Smoke from
this fire is headed east. HRRR smoke dispersal modeling does show
smoke from this fire pushing into southeastern Utah and
southwestern Colorado this evening. Therefore, have added smoke
into the forecast for these geographic areas into the early
morning hours. Otherwise, mostly clear conditions and dry weather
are anticipated through at least Saturday night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 239 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2017

The current satellite water vapor image is showing a ridge of high
pressure positioned along the California coast with a low pressure
system diving south from Saskatchewan into North Dakota. The 1200Z
ECMWF and 1800Z GFS20 have initialized well with these synoptic
scale weather features and remain in good agreement through at
least next Wednesday.

Both of these forecast models indicate that the ridge of high
pressure currently positioned along the California coast will
slide east over intermountain west this weekend resulting in
increasing temperatures into the first half of the work week.
Temperatures will decrease a few degrees on Wednesday as the ridge
flattens. Model agreement does break down mid-week, but both
models do show a broad trough of low pressure working its way
across the western states the second half of the work week
resulting in cooler temperatures and potentially some showers and
thunderstorms across northern portions of the CWA. Confidence is
low on these showers and thunderstorms therefore have not
introduced them into the forecast package yet.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 457 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Dry northwest flow will keep clouds and showers at bay across the
region through the next 24 hours. Smoke from the Brian Head fire
in southwest Utah could bring a thin haze to KDRO tonight.
Otherwise, look for VFR conditions with no CIGS at TAF sites in
eastern Utah and western Colorado tonight and tomorrow.


Issued at 239 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Beginning on Saturday a warming trend will be in place across the
fire district through the middle of next week. The ridge of high
pressure responsible for this warming trend will begin to flatten
on Wednesday of next week promoting cooler temperatures and an off
chance of afternoon convection. Forecast confidence is low so have
not introduced convection into the forecast. Otherwise,
northwesterly winds are anticipated to increase on Saturday across
fire weather zone 207 (southwestern Colorado). Although, for a
brief period of time winds and RH will approach critical fire
weather thresholds a Fire Weather has not been issued for the
area. This is mainly due to the brief period of time in which
these conditions are expected to be met and the limited size of
the geographical area expected to be impacted by these






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