Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 252150
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
250 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

IN BRISK NW FLOW THE LAST IN A SERIES OF OPEN WAVES IS BRINGING
SNOW TO NW COLORADO. A 120KT JET OVER NW CO WILL WEAKEN THIS
EVENING AND SHIFT EAST BY WEDNESDAY. STILL NW CO SNOWFALL
INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THIS EVENING. IDEALLY THESE
OVERRUNNING EVENTS WOULD HAVE COLDER AIR POOLED BELOW AND THE
ISOTHERMAL SATURATED LAYER SOMEWHERE NEAR MTN TOP LEVEL. THOUGH
THE PROFILE SHOWS DEEP SATURATION... NEITHER OTHER CONDITIONS
STRONGLY EXIST.

LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED AS FAR SOUTH AS GUNNISON BUT THE
BRUNT OF SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER THE PARK RANGE ESPECIALLY THE
ZIRKELS. THE LATEST SNOTEL REPORTS SHOW AROUND 6 INCHES OF NEW
ACCUMULATION NE OF STEAMBOAT SPRINGS. AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED THERE BY WEDNESDAY NOON DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 INCHES IN
THE ELK MTNS. DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE TOP DOWN WEDNESDAY
MORNING BRINGING AN END TO SNOWFALL.

THEN DRY CONDITIONS WITH MODIFYING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A DE-AMPLIFYING RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGH TERRAIN WINDS REMAIN BREEZY FROM THE WEST BUT VALLEY
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WESTERLY AFTER MIDWEEK AS THE AMPLIFIED WEST COAST
RIDGE BUILDS INLAND AND FLATTENS...WITH THE FORECAST AREA ENDING UP
ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER JET/STORM TRACK. WARMING ALOFT
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS AND TEND TO FAVOR
INVERSIONS IN VALLEYS ESPECIALLY WHERE SNOW COVER PERSISTS.
SUBSEQUENTLY...HAVE CUT BACK ON HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR MANY
CENTRAL AND NRN VALLEYS THU AND FRI. LOOKS LIKE A SMALL EMBEDDED
WAVE CLIPS THE NORTH LATE ON THU WITH A BIT MORE SUBSTANTIAL
EMBEDDED WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. BUT WITH
MODELS SHORT ON MOISTURE...WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE NORTH BUT
KEEP ANY MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW ON THU AND
SUN.

MODELS SHOW A NE PACIFIC TROUGH DEEPENING OFF THE WEST COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND FORMING A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE NRN CALIF COAST MONDAY.
12Z GFS SHOWS THIS LOW/TROUGH KICKING INLAND AND ACROSS OUR AREA ON
TUE...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF IS ABOUT 12-24 HRS SLOWER. BOTH SHOW
INCREASING MOISTURE MON NIGHT AND TUE IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR THE MTNS ON TUE DUE TO THE
TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A DECENT SHOT
MOISTURE HOVERING IN THE BACKGROUND FOR TUE-TUE NIGHT SHOULD
CONFIDENCE IMPROVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1015 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

AREAS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE FOUND NORTH
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KVEL-KRIL-KGUC WITH CIGS/VSBYS DROPPING
BELOW IFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCD. THIS ACTIVITY PEAKS
BETWEEN 18Z AND 03Z TODAY...WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
EXCEEDING 45 KTS NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVELS PRODUCING MODERATE TO
STRONG TURBULENCE. BLOWING SNOW WILL BE COMMON NEAR KSBS AND KHDN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ004-005-
     010-013.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...JDC/JOE



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