Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 290444
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1044 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

WELL-ORGANIZED CLOSED LOW HAS BEEN PUMPING MOISTURE UP INTO EASTERN
UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO TODAY...WITH SNOW LEVEL INITIALLY
AROUND 6200 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING HAVING RISEN THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TO NEAR 8500 FEET. WE ARE EXPECTING THE SNOW LEVEL TO DROP
TONIGHT TO 7500 FEET AND POTENTIALLY 7000 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 INCHES OR GREATER ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE 9000 FEET WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
CONTINUE. A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DECREASES AROUND SUNSET. THE CLOSED LOW WILL
SHIFT EAST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BY FRIDAY MORNING BUT A GENERAL
AREA OF CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN SLUNG ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN.
CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT AT MOST LOCATIONS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
CLOSED LOW MOVES OUT OF WESTERN COLORADO...BUT SOME RESIDUAL
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE OVER RABBIT EARS AND VAIL PASSES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

THE NEXT CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO DROP FURTHER SOUTH THAN WE WERE
SEEING ON FORECAST MODELS 24 HOURS AGO...NOW INTO ARIZONA LATE
SATURDAY. THE CLOSED LOW IS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH THE FOUR
CORNERS ON SUNDAY AND WILL BRING A RAINY DAY TO THE FOUR CORNERS
SPREADING AS FAR NORTH AS EAST CENTRAL UTAH AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO AS WELL. THE STEADY RAIN SHOULD END BY LATE SUNDAY BUT
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL INITIATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS AS
THE REGION REMAINS IN AN UNSTABLE PATTERN.

HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY RETURNS NEXT WEDNESDAY AND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

ANOTHER TRICKY AVIATION RELATED FORECAST THIS EVENING WITH A
CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING TO OUR WEST. CURRENTLY ALL TERMINAL
FORECAST SITES ARE AT VFR LEVELS WITH INSTABILITY DECREASING WITH
SUNSET. THERE IS A NARROW STREAM OF LIFT ALONG THE COLORADO AND
UTAH BORDER WHICH IS FEEDING SHOWERS OVER EASTERN UTAH AND OVER
NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE AND THE FIRST SIX HOURS OF
THE 00Z/29 FORECAST SHOULD BE FAIRLY OPTIMISTIC. CONFIDENCE
DECLINES BEYOND 12Z HOWEVER AS THE LOW WILL BE SHIFTING EASTWARD.
TWO THINGS WILL BE DRIVING PRECIPITATION TOMORROW...INSTABILITY
UNDER THE SHIFTING LOW AND INCREASING NORTHERLY OROGRAPHICS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE STORM. DUE TO SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION
IT WILL BE HARD TO NAIL DOWN WHEN AND WHERE RAINFALL OCCURS. THE
NORTHERLY FLOW WOULD FAVOR KASE...KTEX AND POSSIBLY KMTJ FOR
SEEING SOME DETERIORATION IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR SATELLITE/RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS AND UPDATE AS NECESSARY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ004-009-010-
     012-013-017>019.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR UTZ023-028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...TGJT



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