Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 170438

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
1038 PM MDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 244 PM MDT Wed Aug 16 2017

A weak disturbance will move across the area tonight. This system
will bring some increasing clouds to the north and an isolated
shower or thunderstorm before diminishing after sunset. Drier
northwest flow will bring mostly sunny skies on Thursday with
isolated showers and thunderstorms confined to the higher
elevations, diminishing after sunset.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 244 PM MDT Wed Aug 16 2017

High pressure will slowly slide east across the western US on
Friday with mainly dry conditions expected, except for isolated
late-day showers and thunderstorms over the high country. A
longwave trough will move over the western states by Saturday as
the ridge axis moves east of the forecast area. Moisture will
slowly increase from the south with a slight uptick in showers
and thunderstorms expected on Saturday. As the long wave trough
digs farther inland, moisture will increase on Sunday with a
better threat of showers and thunderstorms and farther north over
the forecast area. Model consensus beyond Sunday is low with
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorm activity expected
to continue through the middle of the week. High temperatures
will remain slightly above normal through the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1038 PM MDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Mid level cloudiness associated with instability aloft will slowly
drift eastward across the region overnight. Isolated sprinkles
will be possible from these clouds with little to no impacts
expected. VFR conditions will again dominate the aviation forecast
over the next 24 hours. Heating of the day will spark some
isolated mountain showers and storms by tomorrow afternoon but
confidence is low just like coverage of storms and most likely
left out of the upcoming 06z forecasts.




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