Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 142049
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
249 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

LOW AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE 10-15 COLDER THAN NORMAL
ACROSS THE REGION. WHERE SOME FRUIT TREES WERE BLOSSOMING IN THE
GRAND AND LOWER UNCOMPAHGRE/GUNNISON VALLEYS...MORNING
TEMPERATURES DROPPED INTO THE MID 20S. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN
STORE TONIGHT EXCEPT ON THE HIGHER EXPOSED SLOPES WHERE A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS LESS COLD. LATEST
GUIDANCE AGAIN SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING FOR THE
GRAND JUNCTION AND MONTROSE AREAS. SO A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED.

HIGH CLOUDS AND SW-W GRADIENT WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP ON TUESDAY.
THIS WILL END THE VALLEY FREEZES FOR AWHILE. MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE UTAH AND SW COLORADO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE PACIFIC NW TROUGH DROPS ACROSS WYOMING
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK 80KT JET STREAK IN NW COLORADO. LIGHT
MOUNTAIN ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-70.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL SKIRT THE
NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH. A
SECONDARY DISTURBANCE TRAILING AND SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH WILL DIG
THROUGH UTAH AND INTO COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS. FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ALTHOUGH
THE TROF IS SLIGHTLY DEEPER IN THE GFS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL TRANSITION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND COOL THE TEMPERATURES BY 5
TO 10 DEGREES WEDNESDAY. THE BEST FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
BE EAST OF THE DIVIDE WITH WIDE SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PORTION OF EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO. FOR NOW MODELS
INDICATE SNOW AMOUNTS WELL BELOW WARNING CRITERIA WEST OF THE
DIVIDE. THE CONVECTIVE COMPONENT MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER FOR
EVALUATION.

THE TROF EXITS THURSDAY ALLOWING A TRANSITORY RIDGE TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION. SHOWERS SHOULD END EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH ONLY
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE DIVIDE. THE
RIDGE AXIS REACHES EASTERN UT BY FRIDAY. AFTER THIS POINT IN TIME THE
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE GFS SLIDES AN OPEN TROF OVER HEAD
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE EC ON THE OTHER HAND
CLOSES A LOW OFF OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US AND KEEPS UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENTLY...CONFIDENCE IS
LOW FOR THE WEEKEND FORECAST...WILL HAVE TO WAIT ANOTHER MODEL RUN
OR TWO TO SEE TRENDS. BOTH SCENARIOS INCLUDE SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY SO WILL TAKE A BLEND AND LEAVE THEM LOW
CHANCE FOR NOW. WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST TREND FOR NOW WITHOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR
     COZ006-011.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...JOE



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