Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 212226
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
326 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS THE WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING AT 700 MB WHICH WILL PRODUCE WARMER MIN TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
PLUME OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
REACH EASTERN UTAH AROUND NOONTIME ON SATURDAY AND SPREAD EAST
INTO WESTERN COLORADO LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE WILL BE EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT
DUE TO THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 300 MB JET STREAK REACHING THE
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SNOW COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL INCREASE AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING PROGRESSES ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO. SNOW LEVEL IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND 6500 FEET ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND DROP
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE STILL DIFFERING A
BIT BY 30 DEGREES OR SO ON WIND DIRECTION SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL BE THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN MANY OF
THE VALLEYS...SO ADDED WINTER WX ADVISORIES TO THOSE WE FEEL QUITE
CONFIDENT WILL CREATE NEGATIVE IMPACTS FOR TRAVEL. SEE LONG TERM
SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THE STORM.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE MOIST AND ENERGETIC WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT
TO A NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN
CO AND NORTHEASTERN UT...AS WELL AS THE CO NORTHWEST PLATEAU. THE
CENTRAL VALLEYS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN UT AND SW CO WILL
SEE PRECIPITATION DECREASING AS THE MOISTURE GRADUALLY ERODES TO
THE EAST AND THE FLOW TAKES ON THE PROGRESSIVELY MORE NORTHERLY
COMPONENT. BY MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
CONCENTRATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LESS PRECIP
OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING ANOTHER BRIEF SURGE IN
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND JET
STREAK ENHANCES THE UPLIFT AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THE PEAK OF
THIS SURGE SHOULD HOVER AROUND 12Z MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE BUT A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN WILL GRADUALLY
FORCE THE MOISTURE AND JET STREAM EAST. BY WED AFTERNOON ONLY
OROGRAPHIC REMNANT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NW MTS OF
CO.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL DRY OUT
THE AREA CONSIDERABLY...ENDING ALL PRECIP AND BRINGING WARMER
TEMPS. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING WITH
DRY WESTERLY FLOW TAKING ITS PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 946 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS VR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. MID AND HI LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...BUT PRECIPITATION AND REDUCED FLIGHT
CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z SATURDAY.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 3 PM MST SUNDAY
     FOR COZ011-014-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     COZ004-005-009-010-012-013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM MST SUNDAY
     FOR COZ002-003.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 3 PM MST SUNDAY
     FOR COZ007-008.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM MST SUNDAY
     FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC



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