Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 200945
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
345 AM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 323 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016

The shortrange models appear on track in positioning the low
center along the Oregon coast this morning. Satellite images show
the circulation center over extreme sw Oregon and sliding
gradually east. The jet curved cyclonically from the San
Francisco area over central Nevada then turn more to the north
over western Montana. The tightest gradient was edging toward
western Utah. This wind band will move east today and cause winds
to increase over eastern UT and western CO this afternoon and
evening. The gradient should be tight enough to bring wind
advisory level wind speeds to the lower elevations of SE UT and
extreme NW CO. Gusts to 45 mph are probable. The only factor that
could hamper this will be the band of mid and high cloud the will
advect over the area.

The main wind band is projected over the forecast area Saturday so
believe windy conditions will continue. Cloud cover should thicken
as well so have held off and any wind highlights at this time as
the cloud cover may interfere with vertical mixing.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016

Sunday the low lifts into the Canadian Rockies with the tail of
the trough pushing across our northern counties. This will bring
increased coverage of thundershowers especially to the northern
mountains. A cold frontal passage in the afternoon will provide a
storm focus and then a cool down for the first half of the new
week. Snow level stills remains relatively high, around 10000 ft
MSL.

A trough remains over the Intermountain West with a stronger
shortwave now timed to pass next Thursday. A slow warming trend
through Wednesday will cool down again on Thursday. Late-day
convection looks to favor the northern and eastern mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 323 AM MDT Fri May 20 2016

Increasing SW winds will be the main hazard today and these should
bring widespread mechanical turbulence. Only isolated showers and
thunderstorms over the mountains area expected and these will
produce little precipitation. Tonight winds will decrease over
lower elevations but continue to be strong just above mountain top
level.

&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
     COZ001.

UT...Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
     UTZ022-027-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...CC



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