Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 261000
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
400 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014

MOISTURE STREAM FROM ARIZONA HAS BEEN UNIMPRESSIVE WITH QPF...BUT
WOULD BE INTERESTING TO CHECK OUT THE PWATS ON THE 12Z MORNING
SOUNDING. THE MOISTURE MAY EXIST BUT THE LIFT HAS BEEN LACKING OR
MISSING EARLY THIS MORNING. VERY QUIET WITH NO DBZ RETURNS ON THE
RADAR AT 09Z. GRADIENT FLOW TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH. ASCENT COMBINED WITH CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY SHOULD
TRIGGER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPE MOUNTAINS BY LATE THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH FAIRLY COMMON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
ERN UTAH DESERTS AND NW COLORADO.

QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY MORNING FORECASTED
DOWN TO -8C OVER NORTHEAST UTAH. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. THE BEST
FOCUS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO
ABOVE 7500 FEET WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL EXPECTED. WE
COULD SEE GREATER IMPACTS WITH THESE MODEST AMOUNTS DUE TO THE
QUICK FREEZING OF ROAD SURFACES BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH MAY NEED
SOME HIGHLIGHTS WITH THE DAY SHIFT ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014

CONDITIONS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY AS STORM SYSTEM
EXITS THE AREA AS DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW MOVES OVER THE REGION. SEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS WITH THE COLDEST
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH POTENTIAL
SEASON-ENDING FREEZE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AMPLIFYING RIDGE AS IT CROSSES UTAH AND
COLORADO LATER THIS WEEK. DRY WEATHER AND RISING TEMPS WILL BE THE
GENERAL WEATHER TREND.

SATURDAY...THE GFS SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH SLAMMING INTO CALIFORNIA
(HAVE NOT SEEN THIS IN QUITE A WHILE) AND PLACES OUR FORECAST AREA
IN STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW. IF THIS PATTERN PANS OUT...EXPECT
INCREASING WIND AND CLOUD COVER. IT WILL BE NOVEMBER NEXT WEEKEND
AND THIS COULD MARK A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT BRINGING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 10K FEET. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE MOUNTAIN AIRPORTS
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY EVENING THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AT
THE SURFACE AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS...CREATING MOUNTAINWAVE
TURBULENCE. AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA LATE IN
THE EVENING...CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY
OVER AREAS NORTH OF ABOUT KCNY TO KGUC. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME
OBSCURED AND MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KVEL...KCAG...
KHDN...AND KSBS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PF/MPM
LONG TERM...MPM/PF
AVIATION...CC



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