Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 240158
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
758 PM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 758 PM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUED TO EASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...THOUGH BREEZY CONDITIONS
PERSISTED IN SOME AREAS...WINDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THEREFORE...CANCELLED REMAINING WIND ADVISORIES FOR
WESTERN COLORADO.

MEANWHILE...SHOWERS HAVE LARGELY DIMINISHED OVER THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT. CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE EVENING. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT MID-LEVEL LOW
CENTER TO GENERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS IT TRANSITS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 610 PM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEAST UTAH...SOUTHWEST
COLORADO AND EXTREME NORTHWEST COLORADO. IN THESE AREAS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS RELAXING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH
PASSED THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...WINDS...
THOUGH STILL BREEZY IN SOME AREAS...HAD DECREASED BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. MEANWHILE...APPEARS THE FRONT WAS ALONG A KCAG TO KDRO
LINE ROUGHLY AT 00Z/SUN WITH SHOWERS MARKING THE EDGE OF ITS
PROGRESS. WINDS OVER WESTERN COLORADO SHOULD BE DECLINING OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO AS THE FRONT CONTINUES EAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 449 PM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

AS OF ABOUT 5 PM THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CO. IT
APPEARS TO HAVE PASSED EAST OF STEAMBOAT SPRINGS...AND IS JUST
EAST RIFLE AND TELLURIDE. BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. COLD ADVECTION AND NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL
BRING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE CO NW MTS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

THE COLD FRONT AND STRONG WINDS WILL BLOW THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT. AT MID AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT HAD MOVED INTO CENTRAL
COLORADO WITH ABOUT 10 DEGREES OF COOLING AFTER FROPA. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED OVER THE CO MTNS NEAR THE
DIVIDE AND THESE WILL BE PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA BEFORE 6 PM. THE
FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA TO THE EAST BEFORE SUNSET.

LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION WILL HELP PRODUCE SOME SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND CO NW PLATEAU. AROUND THE MT ZIRKEL AREA AND
FLATTOPS A FEW INCHES OF NEW SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH UP TO 4 OR 5
INCHES ON THE VERY HIGHEST PEAKS BEFORE IT ALL ENDS SUNDAY
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

MONDAY WILL SEE BRIEF RIDGING AND DRYING AS THE NEXT STORM MOVES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE MODELS SHOW A LARGE
CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER NEVADA. THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS STORM IS
NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS TODAY`S BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA ABOUT THE SAME TIME OF DAY...MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NW UT INTO SW WYOMING TUE WITH
COLD ADVECTION AND POSSIBLE MT AND HIGH PLATEAU SNOWFALL MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT.

WED AND THU WILL BE IN-BETWEEN DAYS AS THE NEXT STORM APPROACHES.
SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AS THIS STORM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN THU THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. SAT WILL BE COOLER
AND WETTER AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES AND A REINFORCING
TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE MAIN LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 449 PM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

THE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
TURBULENCE THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AFFECT THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND NORTHERN MTS THROUGH ABOUT
01Z. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE ILS BREAKPOINTS THOUGH A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS MAIN BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CO AND UT.
COLDER AIR WILL BRING AREAS OF SNOWFALL OVER THE CO AND UT
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS CAUSING MT TOP OBSCURATIONS. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN COLORADO WILL
SHIFT ABRUPTLY TO THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE.

ANOTHER STRONG WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED MONDAY WHEN A SIMILAR
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 MPH WILL BE
COMMON AT MOST AIRPORTS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EAST
OF A LINE FROM CRAIG TO MONTROSE WITH SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ISOLATED AND CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE ILS
BREAKPOINTS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NL
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC
FIRE WEATHER...CC



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