Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 292026
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
226 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF WESTERN CO AND EASTERN UT. ONLY
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SE UT AND SW CO ARE REMOVED FROM THE
THREAT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST NV AND WESTERN UT WILL
GRADUALLY ROTATE EAST AND NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PVA AHEAD
OF A VORT CENTER LIFTING NE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
PRODUCING SLOW-MOVING LIGHT RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CO CENTRAL AND NW MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS THE BEST DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION
WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL RIDE JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT WITH MOST OF THE STORMS BECOMING OVERNIGHT STEADY RAINERS.

IN THE CLEARING SKIES UNDER THE DRY SLOT AHEAD OF THE NV/UT
TROUGH...THE 1100+ JOULES OF CAPE IS BEGINNING TO BE REALIZED AS
FAIRLY STRONG CONVECTION KEEPS DEVELOPING OVER THE LA SAL AND
ABAJO MTS WITH SECOND AND THIRD GENERATION STORMS MOVING OUT OF
THE HILLS AND OVER THE PARADOX VALLEY. THESE STORMS ARE BEING
SUSTAINED BY BETTER WIND SHEAR ALOFT ALLOWING MULTICELL STORMS TO
GENERATE. THESE OUGHT TO DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 03Z.

TOMORROW WILL BE NO WALK IN THE PARK...THERE SHOULD BE LESS
FORCING THAN TODAY. THE MAIN DYNAMIC SUPPORT TRAVELS NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND DROP DOWN THE FRONTRANGE. WILL EXPECT PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD NOT BE AS
STRONG NOR AS WIDESPREAD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE BROAD WRN RIDGE WILL DICTATE
MOISTURE SURGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVES ON THURSDAY FOR A RELATIVELY DRY
DAY OVER ERN UTAH...BUT TERRAIN DRIVEN STORMS WILL STILL OCCUR
OVER WRN COLORADO. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION ON
FRIDAY FOR INCREASED ACTIVITY. THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT A
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SURGE WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVE TIME
FRAME AND BEARS WATCHING AS LOCAL HEAVY SHOWERS WOULD OCCUR IF
THIS VERIFIED. THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY AND WE WILL SEE IF MODELS
MAINTAIN CONTINUITY ON THIS FEATURE...BUT POP GRIDS ARE ABOVE
CLIMO.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIVERGES IN A SIGNIFICANT MANNER. THE EURO MODEL KEEPS A TROUGH
ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE THE GFS MOVES IT DOWNSTREAM. IF THE
FORMER OCCURS...THEN THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK STAYS WET. THE
GFS OFFERS THE "NOT SO WET" SOLUTION. ONE THING IS CERTAIN...THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST MONSOON IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE ANYTIME SOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH ABOUT A 20% CHANCE OF MVFR
VSBYS UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS AT KMTJ...KRIL...KEGE...KASE AND KTEX.
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH MOUNTAIN PASSES WILL ALSO BE OBSCURED AT TIMES
IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. SLOWLY DIMINISHING RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN AFTER 18Z...THOUGH NOT AS STRONG
AS TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT AND A SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE
WITHIN THE MONSOON FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
AND FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL AND NW AND
CENTRAL CO AND NE UTAH.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ001>014-
     017>020-022-023.

UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ023>025-027-
     028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...CC
HYDROLOGY...CC


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