Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 150658
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1158 PM MST SUN DEC 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1157 PM MST SUN DEC 14 2014

ALLOWED THE ADVISORY IN THE STEAMBOAT SPRINGS AREA TO EXPIRE. NO
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 604 PM MST SUN DEC 14 2014

WRAPAROUND FLOW AND FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING FOR THE GORE AND ELK MTNS ALONG WITH THE FLATTOPS AND NRN
MTNS SO THE CURRENT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THOSE AREAS. THE
NAM12 AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO SO HIGH
CONFIDENCE SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE FOR THOSE AREAS OVERNIGHT.  THE
REMAINING ADVISORIES AND WARNING WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOWSHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. CURRENT FORECAST CAPTURES THIS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM MST SUN DEC 14 2014

STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA CONTINUES TO WRAP MOISTURE BACK OVER OUR REGION WITH
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO
DRIVE MOISTURE INTO OUR FAVORED NORTH AND NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES
TODAY WITH STEADY...ALBEIT LIGHT...SNOW FALLING ACROSS MOST OF OUR
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE NORTHERLY FETCH IS ALSO
DRIVING MOISTURE DOWN INTO THE NORTHWEST SAN JUANS WHERE KTEX HAS
BEEN RECEIVING LIGHT SNOW ALL DAY SO FAR. ACCUMULATIONS FROM MOST
SITES HAVE BEEN UNDER 10 INCHES FOR THE ENTIRE STORM SO FAR...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE SAN JUANS WHERE AREAS OF A FOOT PLUS FELL
LAST NIGHT AND EARLIER THIS MORNING. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND NORTHERN VALLEYS TO NEAR EAGLE-VAIL
AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS WITH NO CHANGE IN
DURATION PLANNED. HIGH PRESSURE SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NEXT WAVE CLIMBS
THROUGH THE RIDGE AS IT SLIDE EAST INTO THE PLAINS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE NORTHERN ZONES...ALTHOUGH IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA APPEARS
MINIMAL ATTM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
NEXT FEW PERIODS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM MST SUN DEC 14 2014

MODELS INDICATING AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE WESTERN STATES THIS
WEEK AS A SERIES OF PACIFIC DISTURBANCES MOVE INLAND.  MODEL
DIFFERENCES BECOME APPARENT WITH TIME HOWEVER...SO CONFIDENCE WITH
THEIR TRACKS AND TIMING IS A BIT BELOW AVERAGE. NO BIG TEMPERATURE
SWINGS APPEAR IN THE OFFING.

TRANSIENT RIDGE SHIFTS EAST ON TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
IS EJECTED FROM A LARGER WEST COAST TROUGH. WAVE APPEARS TO WEAKEN
AS IT CATCHES UP WITH THE RIDGE FOR JUST A CHANCE OF SNOW OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NRN MTNS ON TUE. A LARGER SHORTWAVE GETS KICKED INLAND
AND CROSSES ERN UT/WRN CO ABOUT MIDWEEK AS ENERGY DROPS OUT OF THE
GULF OF AK AND TO RELOAD THE WEST COAST TROUGH. ADDITIONAL NERN
PACIFIC JET ENERGY THEN DRIVES THE WEST COAST TROUGH INLAND
SPLITTING AS IT DOES SO. SOUTHERN SECTION DROPS TO THE ARIZONA/MEXICO
BORDER. REMAINING TROUGH/DEFORMATION AXIS PASSES ACROSS OUR AREA
ABOUT THU NIGHT. THESE WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF MTN SNOW
WED-THU...THIS TIME FOCUSED MORE ON THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. ANOTHER
TRANSIENT RIDGE FRIDAY FOR MOSTLY DRY WEATHER...PERHAPS FOLLOWED
BY YET ANOTHER INLAND MOVING BUT SPLITTING PACIFIC TROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 959 PM MST SUN DEC 14 2014

SNOW WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO DURING THE NEST
6 TO 12 HOURS...LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN DIVIDE. EXPECT
THAT AREAS OF MVFR AND EVEN IFR WILL PERSIST OVER THE COLORADO
MOUNTAINS AND THE HIGHER NORTHERN VALLEYS IN LOW CIGS AND
RESTRICTED VSBY IN SN AND BR. ASIDE FROM PRECIPITATION...MORNING
FOG MAY OCCUR AGAIN FOR SOME TAF SITES...KVEL AND KEGE IN
PARTICULAR. AFTER 18Z...EXPECT VFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ004-010-013.

UT...NONE. &&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...EH



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