Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KGJT 171107
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
407 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

A MOIST BUT WEAKLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE MAIN ENERGY CURRENTLY SOUTH OF
THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS WEAK H7 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS SHOWN SOME
STRENGTHENING ON IR AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING WHICH
ALIGNS WELL WITH THE MODELED NAM QC FORCING. WX MODELS INDICATE
H7 TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...WHICH MADE
TODAY/S FORECAST RATHER TRICKY DUE TO SNOW LEVEL CONFIDENCE
ISSUES. EXPECTING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS SW COLORADO
TODAY AND REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-70 CORRIDOR...BUT THE
BULLSEYE LOOKS TO BE OVER SW COLORADO. DECIDED TO ISSUE WINTER WX
ADVISORIES FOR THE SOUTHWEST COLORADO VALLEY ZONES AS WELL AS THE
PARADOX VALLEY THINKING WITH TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 30S AND
EXPECTATIONS OF THEM DROPPING THROUGHOUT THE DAY THAT SNOW SHOULD
NOT MIX IN WITH RAIN FOR VERY LONG IF AT ALL. DECIDED TO KEEP
OTHER AREAS OUT OF HAZARD PRODUCTS FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS JUST
NOT ALL THAT HIGH ON HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL MATERIALIZE TODAY.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TONIGHT...BUT THE SNOW
WILL NOT COMPLETELY STOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ISO TO SCT
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH THE TAIL END
OF THIS SYSTEM WRAPPING SOME MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER
RETURNS TO THE AREA FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE FORMS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INLAND FROM THE
PACIFIC. MUCH OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY LIMITING SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE REGION.

NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MODELS WERE
CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A LENGTHY FETCH OF MOISTURE STRETCHING
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN DIVIDE
MOUNTAINS BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. STRENGTHENING WINDS BENEATH A
140 KT JET WILL PROVIDE GOOD OROGRAPHIC LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS. APPEARS MODELS SETTING THE STAGE
FOR PERSISTENT SNOW OVER COLORADO/S NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
WHICH COULD LAST INTO MIDWEEK. IF LATEST MODELS VERIFY...THERE IS
A STRONG CHANCE THAT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO DURING THIS PERIOD.

NOT EXPECTING ANY APPRECIABLE CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD SO LOOK FOR NEAR NORMAL READINGS TO CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

SNOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A PACIFIC STORM LIFTS
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES EASTWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE
UTAH/COLORADO BORDER. FAVORED AREAS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
CONSEQUENTLY...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS FROM THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD. PROLONGED PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND
VSBY IN SNOW ARE LIKELY FOR KMTJ...KTEX...AND KDRO WITH STRONG
CHANCES FOR PERIODS MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS FOR KCNY...KGJT...KRIL
...KEGE...AND KASE. FLOW REMAINS RELATIVELY LIGHT SO NOT
ANTICIPATING SHEAR TO BE AN ISSUE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ009-018-
     019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
     COZ020>023.

UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.