Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 190554

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1154 PM MDT THU AUG 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Thu Aug 18 2016

A weakening upper trough will work across the north this evening.
Its associated cold front will provide some forcing across the
Yampa Basin into the Park Range this evening before the brunt of
the frontal forcing works onto the Front Range. These storms will
have a storm motion to the east at 15 kts with outflow winds to 45
mph, small hail, lightning and brief moderate rain. Elsewhere
storms will favor the higher terrain and move slower to the ENE
off the ridges into the evening. Showers and small hail will
favor the highest terrain. Evening outflow winds will be more
widespread. The upper forcing ends this evening so storms after
midnight will be limited mainly to SW Colorado.

A drier NW flow will be in place on Friday and Friday night. Speed
shear will have increased across NE Utah-NW Colorado Friday
afternoon so any storms could be more organized for potentially
larger hail production and strong winds. Elsewhere storms will be
limited to the southern and eastern higher terrain ending in the
evening hours. Temperatures across the north will be a few degrees
below normal, with seasonal temperatures elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Thu Aug 18 2016

The dry northwest flow continues through the weekend. There will
be sufficient moisture along the southern portion of the
Continental Divide for late-day isolated to scattered storms.
Expected below to near normal overnight temperatures, and near to
above daytime temperatures.

Early Monday a closed low over southern California will begin to
lift NE opening to a broad SW-NE trough over the region on
Tuesday. Precipitable water rises to around 0.90 inch or just a
bit above average. Nocturnal storms should be active Monday night
with the developing trough. Storms may be more organized on
Tuesday with increasing shear. Expect less storm coverage on
Wednesday and Thursday in a drier west flow aloft.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1154 PM MDT Thu Aug 18 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through 18Z/Friday across eastern Utah
and western Colorado. Instability driven by rising surface
temperatures will bring another round of scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the mountains from 18Z through 04Z/Saturday.
Coverage will be reduced relative to Thursday. KRIL, KEGE, KASE
and KGUC face a 30 to 40 percent chance of thunderstorms moving
overhead during the time frame mentioned above. This may result
in a brief reduction in CIGS below ILS breakpoints and strong
outflow winds to 40 MPH or higher.


.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...




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