Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 250457
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1057 PM MDT SUN APR 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT SUN APR 24 2016

WRAPAROUND FLOW FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT BROUGHT THE
STRONG WINDS YESTERDAY KEPT SOME CLOUDS HANGING AROUND FOR OUR
NORTHERN AREAS AND ALSO HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS WERE ALSO A BIT
COOLER WITH SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES PICKING UP. SOME LIGHT PRECIP
WAS ALSO SEEN OVER THE PARK AND GORE RANGES AND ALSO VAIL PASS BUT
ALL IN ALL...A RATHER TRANQUIL DAY. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED
THOUGH AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN TOMORROW. MUCH LIKE THE LAST
SYSTEM...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ROUND THE BASE OF A CLOSED LOW
CAUSING THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN AND PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A
SURFACE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL START PICKING UP IN THE MORNING
HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS WILL REACH BETWEEN
30 TO 40 MPH AT TIMES GENERALLY OVER EXTREME WESTERN COLORADO AND
SOUTHEASTERN UTAH. TOYED WITH ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY BUT HELD
BACK AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS A LITTLE WEAKER AND ALSO FURTHER
SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. HAVING SAID THAT...IT WILL BE
WINDY AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE TRIGGER IS PULLED ON A
WIND ADVISORY.

AS THE LOW AND ASSOD COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MODELS INDICATE THE ACTION
GETTING GOING NEAR NOON WITH SOME BANDING SETTING UP AROUND 3PM
WITH BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM 6PM ONWARDS. CONVECTION MAY AID
IN STRONGER SURFACE WINDS EITHER BECAUSE OF VIRGA OR FROM THE
STORMS THEMSELVES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT SUN APR 24 2016

BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...THE CLOSED LOW WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
CWA AND AS IT DOES SO...SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP. ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL IS LIKELY FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL START AT 9.5K FEET OR SO AND DROP
TO MOUNTAIN BASES BY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE RISING DURING THE DAY
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. AS THE LOW SHIFTS NEWRD THRU THE
DAY...PRECIP WILL TAKE ON A MORE CONVECTIVE TURN WITH MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY. THE POSITION OF
THE LOW WILL ALSO AID IN OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALLOWING SNOW TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS. SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 5 TO
10 INCH RANGE WITH A BIT LESS FOR THE SAN JUANS. WILL NOT ISSUE
HIGHLIGHTS WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT GRIDS DO SUPPORT SAID HIGHLIGHTS
FOR FUTURE SHIFTS IF/WHEN NEEDED.

NORMALLY AFTER A SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WE`D SEE A PERIOD OF HIGH
PRESSURE BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN. NOT SO THIS WEEK. WHILE
A WEAK RIDGE DOES TRY TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY...PLENTY OF MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED AND WILL CAUSE SOME SHOWERS BEFORE YET ANOTHER
CLOSED LOW TAKES AIM AT THE CWA. MORE CLOUDS...RAIN...ISOLATED
STORMS AND MTN SNOW LOOK POSSIBLE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM AND
POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM MDT SUN APR 24 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH 18Z THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER
PACIFIC STORM. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25
MPH AND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER
18Z...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 9000
TO 9500 FEET. EXPECT ENHANCED WIND GUSTS IN THE VICINITY OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE RELATIVELY LOW FOR
AIRPORTS ACROSS THE REGION BUT SHOULD THEY OCCUR CIGS BELOW ILS
BREAKPOINTS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH BELOW VFR CIGS AND VSBY ARE
UNLIKELY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...NL



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