Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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537
FXUS65 KGJT 231746
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1146 AM MDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1146 AM MDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Everything looks on track today. Drier air has moved into
northeastern Utah and northwestern Colorado, but thermally induced
convection still expected this afternoon across the region.
Storms will have more of a wind threat than a heavy rain threat
today, but localized heavy rain and small hail may still occur.
Short term models indicating storms will be rather isolated today
due to an elevated inversion seen in this morning`s sounding, but
still possible as the afternoon progresses.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 416 AM MDT Sat Jul 23 2016

The monsoonal plume that has been over the forecast area for the
past week will be shifting slowly south today with drier air
working into the northern zones late this afternoon and
overnight. Still plenty of juice to work with today and expect
another round of storms favoring the San Juans. Second favored
area will be along the deeper moisture gradient which looks to
set up along the higher terrain just north of Interstate 70.
Eastward storm motion will be slow across the southern zones, but
expected to pick up a bit the further north you go. NAM hinting at
another weak wave tracking across the north this afternoon, which
appears to be associated with the drier air mass moving in. Have
nudged pops up a bit, especially over the southern and central
mountains in western Colorado. With precipitable water values
continuing to drop and  Heavy rain will be even more localized
and no plans on hoisting any flash flood watches attm. Sunday
looks dry across the northern zones with diurnally driven activity
continuing along and south of Interstate 70.

Temperatures will be on the plus side of normal through Sunday
with many lower valleys making a run at the triple digit heat.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 416 AM MDT Sat Jul 23 2016

The upper level ridging over the region will be suppressed as we
start off the new week with the deeper plume dropping south. This
will keep the focus of new convection over our southern zones
with little to no activity expected across the north. Some
recycling of the moisture is expected Monday and Tuesday, leading
to additional diurnally driven convection. The ridge then slides
back over the southern Great Basin and swings drier weather back
over the entire forecast area by mid-week. This will also bump
temps back up a few degrees with more triple digit heat possible
for the lower valleys.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1146 AM MDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Much quieter today and for the next 24 hours as the threat of
heavy rain lessens. All TAF sites are expected to remain VFR over
the next 24 hours, with VCTS possible beginning this afternoon at
a few sites. Gusty winds are more of a threat today than heavy
rain, with general outflow winds to 20 kts not uncommon.

&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JAM



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