Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 161728
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
1028 AM MST Fri Feb 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 332 AM MST Fri Feb 16 2018

Plenty of clear skies across the forecast area this morning
outside of the San Juans and southern valleys where some high
clouds continue to move overhead. The central mountains may also
be seeing some lower clouds and a few flurries but nothing too
exciting considering what we experienced over the last 24 hours or
so.

For the next few days, relatively calm conditions are expected. A
trough/closed low off the southern California coast will remain
cutoff and stay in that general area allowing moisture to stream
into southern Arizona and New Mexico. Unfortunately, this moisture
won`t reach our neck of the woods. What we`ll see to day is
continued high clouds for our southern areas with increasing
clouds for the northern valleys and approaching wave drops down
from the northwest. This wave will bring some isolated snowshowers
to the Elkheads and Park Range with some minor accumulation
expected for the higher elevations. Central portions of Utah and
Colorado should see plenty of sunshine with seasonal temperatures.

Saturday more of the same though there should be more sunshine
and warmer temperatures. Those pesky snowshowers over the northern
mountains should come to an end in the afternoon as favorable
orographics come to an end.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 332 AM MST Fri Feb 16 2018

Dry westerly flow aloft Saturday night and Sunday will result in
mild, benign weather to end the weekend. Sunday night, upper level
flow will turn to the southwest as the next broad Pacific trough
begins to dig into the western CONUS. A 100-knot jet rounding the
base of the trough will encroach upon the northern half of our
CWA by midnight Monday morning which will allow for some scattered
snow showers to develop over the higher terrain. Precipitation
will increase across eastern Utah and western Colorado throughout
the day Monday as the trough continues to elongate and progress
further east. Latest model guidance shows the peak coverage and
intensity of showers should be around midday Monday under the
influence of favorable jet dynamics and ample moisture. There are
still some discrepancies between the models, especially in terms
of potential snowfall, but there are some early indications that
advisory level criteria could be met in some of the western
Colorado mountains.

Isolated to scattered showers look to linger along the Continental
Divide on Tuesday as the forecast area remains in between two
synoptic features. An upper level trough will be situated to our
northeast while forecast models indicate a cutoff low will be
carved over southern California. Forecast solutions begin to
diverge from midweek onwards in the progression of this potential
closed So-Cal low. For our area at least, after a drastically
cooler Tuesday behind Monday`s storm system, we should begin to
see some moderating temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1010 AM MST Fri Feb 16 2018

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Expect a
few high clouds drifting across southern terminals this afternoon
and overnight.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...MMS
AVIATION...MAC



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