Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 212029

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
229 PM MDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 229 PM MDT Sat May 21 2016

Large trough sprawled across the western US will remain nearly
stationary over the next 24 hours. Associated 110kt jet aloft will
remain centered over eastern Utah and northwest Colorado keeping
winds elevated through Sunday. Short term MOS guidance indicates
some decoupling in protected valleys tonight but wind guidance
remains near 5 to 15 mph sustained throughout the night. A subtle
cold front associated with the trough will brush the area late
tonight towards morning.

The low center that was to our west today will shift northeast
through Sunday. While strong southwest flow aloft will remain
stretched over the area through the day, it is expected to relax
somewhat. Breezy conditions will again develop at the surface Sun
afternoon, but winds will not expected to be near as strong as
the last couple of days. The far north, especially the Uinta
Mountains, will see a a better chance of showers and afternoon
thunderstorms, with isolated convection possible for the other
mountains. Otherwise, most of the area will remain dry. Cooler
temperatures are expected behind the cold front, with below normal
highs. Nighttime lows Sunday night will also be below normal and
quite a bit cooler than tonight`s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 229 PM MDT Sat May 21 2016

Additional low pressure energy over the Pacific Northwest will
keep a mean long wave trough over the western CONUS through the
period. The flow will remain from the southwest through midweek,
with typical springtime afternoon breezes. One embedded shortwave
passing on Tue will increase winds somewhat, and may bring a
slight chance of showers/afternoon thunderstorms mainly to the
northern portion.

Then a better defined low pressure system will break off from the
mean trough during the second half of the week. While forecast
details are still uncertain, this will result in a better chance
of showers and late day thunderstorms on Thu and Fri. Models
indicate conditions may remain unsettled into the weekend.

Look for a warming trend early in the work week, however temps are
still expected to stay below normal. Then temps should cool
midweek through Fri, with a possible rebound on Sat.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 229 PM MDT Sat May 21 2016

The strong pressure gradient will remain nearly stationary over
the region through the next 18-24 hours, gradually relaxing a bit
on Sunday. At the surface, strong southwester winds will persist,
diminishing somewhat in the valleys by mid evening. Winds will
redevelop on Sunday, but are not expected to be as strong as the
last couple of days. All taf sites will experience windy
conditions through around 02Z. There is a chance that local
blowing dust may affect visibility, especially over southeast Utah
and southwest Colorado. Low level wind shear is also possible late
tonight as the lower valleys decouple...but chances are likely
there will be little LLWS below 020.


.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ001-003-006-020.

UT...Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for UTZ022-023-025-



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