Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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188
FXUS65 KGJT 071731
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1031 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
COMING WEEK UNDER A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW. A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS TODAY AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES
REGION. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE EXTENT
AND DENSITY OF LOW STRATUS AND VALLEY FOG DURING THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIODS. TEMPERATURES DUE TO VALLEY INVERSIONS
ALSO POSE A CHALLENGE SINCE GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN FROM 5
TO 15 DEGREES TOO WARM IN THESE AREAS. IN BOTH CASES WILL LEAN
TOWARD PERSISTENCE AS HIGH PRESSURE IS UNLIKELY TO SIGNIFICANTLY
ALTER CONDITIONS IN STAGNANT VALLEYS. HOWEVER...MOUNTAIN AREAS
ABOVE THE INVERSION WILL WARM IN RESPONSE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT WHILE VALLEYS...FOR REASONS JUST DISCUSSED...WILL LAG.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAINED CONSISTENT IN MAINTAINING A STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
COMING WEEK. AS A RESULT...EXPECT DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS FOR
MOST AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF INVERTED VALLEYS WHICH WILL BE
SLOWER TO RESPOND TO THE WARMING TREND. THE RIDGE WEAKENS DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS A PAIR OF PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE RETAINS
ENOUGH AMPLITUDE TO KEEP DEEP MOISTURE NORTH OF THE AREA...THOUGH
MODERATE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE NORTHERN
ZONES. DOESN/T APPEAR THERE WILL BE ANY RELIEF FROM VALLEY
INVERSIONS SO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR CONDS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BETWEEN 03Z AND 15Z TONIGHT IN THE LOWER
SNOW COVERED VALLEYS. ANY FOG ENCOUNTERED WILL BE CAPABLE OF
DROPPING VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1 MILES AND INTRODUCE LIFR AND
IFR CIGS. ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE PARK AND GORE MOUNTAIN RANGES IN
NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AS A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASSES. NO
IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT TERMINAL SITES...ALTHOUGH MOUNTAIN PEAKS MAY
BE OBSCURED AT TIMES IN THIS AREA.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...JDC



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