Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 120944
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
344 AM MDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT FRI SEP 12 2014

THE COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED INTO THE REGION YESTERDAY WILL DROP
INTO SOUTHEAST UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO BY SUNRISE AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWEEPS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING MARKEDLY COOLER
AFTERNOON HIGHS AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY FOR ALL BUT THE
SOUTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY
SO EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

COOL NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AND
BEGINS TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY SATURDAY AS THE WESTERN US RIDGE AXIS
FLATTENS. MIN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER YAMPA
RIVER BASIN LOOK TO HOVER RIGHT AROUND THE 30 DEGREE MARK
AGAIN...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE WHAT TRANSPIRES EARLY THIS MORNING
BEFORE ISSUING ANY FREEZE HAZARDS. TONIGHT...H7 TEMPS ARE MUCH
WARMER THAN FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING...THOUGH DEWPTS ARE LOWER.
WOULD NEED A NICE INVERSION TO SET UP IN THE UPPER YAMPA VALLEY TO
REACH CRITICAL FREEZING TEMPS TONIGHT...AND THOUGH POSSIBLE...NOT
FEELING CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR THAT WATCH. MAX TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN SAN JUANS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CLOUD DEPTH WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED TO
SOME MODERATELY DEEP CU.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT FRI SEP 12 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THOUGH PWATS ARE STILL LOW
FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY. THE PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
HOVER NEAR SEASONAL NORMS. MODELS INDICATE AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE
ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF TROUGH MOVING INLAND FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
DESPITE SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...BOTH INDICATED A GOOD CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT FRI SEP 12 2014

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ002-005.

UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM/NL
AVIATION...NL



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