832
FXUS65 KGJT 071748
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1148 AM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms are favored over the
  San Juans this afternoon though the central mountains and
  eastern Uintas may also see some convection.

- Temperatures warm to 5-10 degrees above normal by Wednesday,
  and remain there through the rest of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 240 AM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025

High pressure will remain centered over central New Mexico and
Arizona today. Despite subsidence aloft, a slight uptick in
moisture over the San Juans and a weak shortwave will allow some
convection to fire this afternoon. The San Juans are favored
with a 30 to 40% chance to see this convection while a 20 to 30%
chance exists for the central mountain and eastern Uintas. Main
concern will be gusty outflow winds and maybe some small hail.
Nothing out of the ordinary for this time of year. Cu clouds
will form over the higher terrain as well. Outside of that, high
temps will continue their 5 to 10 degree run above normal.
Looking ahead to Tuesday, dry conditions remain in place and no
disturbances to be found, subsidence will win out keeping any
possible convection in check. Like today, we`ll see Cu buildup
over the higher terrain but that will be it. Highs will inch up
a few more degrees bringing triple digits to central and
southeast UT and the Grand Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 240 AM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025

High pressure continues to be centered just south of the Four
Corners through Wednesday allowing southwest flow aloft to continue
advecting warm and dry air into the region. Triple-didgit high
temperatures are likely for most of the lower-desert valleys on
Tuesday and Wednesday as a result. While temperatures will top out
around 5-10 degrees above normal for early/mid July, record highs
are not anticipated.

A weakening shortwave trough is progged to pass through the area
Wednesday night into Thursday. While ensemble data is hinting at a
slight uptick in mositure with its passage as PWATs rise to 115-130%
of normal, this spike happens overnight for most locations in our
forecast area. Southwest Utah has the best chance to see a few
showers and storms as the moisture moves in Wednesday evening, but
the timing of this wave does not look to be in our favor to provide
wetting rains or precipitation chances in general. The biggest
concern with this wave`s passage is the potential for critical fire
weather conditions with a stronger pressure gradient leading to
stronger surface winds. These impacts may extend into Friday for
parts of southwest Colorado, but models are not in very good
agreement in the wake of the aformentioned shortwave.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1139 AM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing over
the San Juans so included PROB30 thunderstorms for KTEX through
the afternoon. Expect isolated showers and thunderstorms over
the higher terrain across the region, but chances are too low to
include in any other TAF`s. Deeper mixing will allow some gusts
of 15-20kts until 00Z. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions through
the TAF period with convection dying down after 00Z and light
winds overnight.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...KAA
AVIATION...DB