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000
FXUS65 KGJT 051834
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1134 AM MST THU DEC 5 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MST THU DEC 5 2013

EXCEPT FOR SOME LOWER CLOUDS IN SW CO AND ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS AS WELL AS IN THE CRAIG AREA...MUCH OF THE AREA HAS
SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WEAK UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE PUSHING ACROSS
SRN UT IS NOT CARRYING MUCH MOISTURE. PLAN TO TAPER BACK ON CLOUDS
AND CHANCE OF PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. ANOTHER WEAK
EMBEDDED TROUGH OVER NW NV CARRIES A BIT MORE MOISTURE PER
SATELLITE AND IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST IS STILL EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS ERN
UT/WRN CO THIS WEEKEND FOR THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF SNOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 905 AM MST THU DEC 5 2013

ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 9AM THOUGH PATCHY FOG
WILL LIKELY PERSIST NEAR OPEN SOURCES OF WATER. CDOT WEBCAM AT SILT
SHOWED THE FOG DISSIPATING ACROSS I-70 AT THE COLORADO RIVER.
EAGLE AIRPORT WEBCAM AND METAR ALSO INDICATING A LIFTING OF THE
FOG THERE AS WELL.

SATELLITE SHOWED LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND
MONTEZUMA/LA PLATA/ARCHULETA COUNTIES THIS MORNING. LOWER CLOUDS
WERE ALSO SLOWLY EXPANDING IN THE UINTA BASIN THOUGH VERNAL REMAINED
CLEAR AT 9AM. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES COVERED MUCH OF THE
AREAS. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDDED AND WORDED FORECAST
FOR THIS MORNING TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE NV/UT BORDER WILL SLIP ACROSS OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT IS NOT CARRYING MUCH MOISTURE. JUST THE
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST FOR LATER TODAY STILL LOOKS REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MST THU DEC 5 2013

SOME PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPED LATE LAST NIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING IN LOCALIZED VALLEY AREAS....AND IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST UNTIL AROUND MID MORNING.

ANOTHER TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY FOR A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR. HOWEVER NOT MUCH MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS DISTURBANCE. EXPECT THAT AREAS OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWFALL
WILL AGAIN INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. TEMPS AT 500MB
WILL AGAIN RANGE FROM -34C ALONG THE WY BORDER TO -30C JUST SOUTH
OF THE FOUR CORNERS...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY/S WAVE. THIS COLD AIR
ALOFT AND THE FRESH SNOWFALL WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE
VERY COLD TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT TODAY/S HIGHS TO BE BELOW
NORMAL BY AROUND 10 DEGREES/SOUTH AND 20 DEGREES/NORTH AND
CENTRAL. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL ALSO BE VERY COLD...BUT MAY MODIFY A
COUPLE DEGREES AS THE LOWER LAYERS MOISTEN A LITTLE MORE.

ZONAL FLOW WILL FOLLOW ON FRIDAY AS THE PATTERN RELOADS FOR THE
UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. WHILE THE JET STREAM
WILL AGAIN STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA...THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL
NOT BE REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE. SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
MOVE OVER THE NORTH AND MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH TEMPERATURES
STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MST THU DEC 5 2013

00Z/THU GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE DROPPING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD
FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERRUNNING THE COLD AIR BROUGHT
WITH OUR LAST STORM. PACIFIC MOISTURE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH
7H SPECIFIC HUMIDITY RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 2.0 G/KG.

EXPECT SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT THEN SPREADS SOUTHWARD AS THE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SWEEP
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY. THE TROUGH AXIS
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BRINGING
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AND INCREASED SNOWFALL. AS MOISTURE
REMAINS LIMITED THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT APPEARS ACCUMULATIONS WILL
FALL BELOW WARNING CRITERIA...THOUGH ADVISORIES A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY.

SNOWFALL DECREASES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THOUGH ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE SHOULD KEEP AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW GOING INTO MONDAY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MST THU DEC 5 2013

LOW CLOUDS REMAINED ALONG THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN JUAN
MTNS...BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT
KDRO. OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS TO MVFR VIS IS POSSIBLE FOR KVEL AND
KRIL AS HZ/BR HANGS AROUND IN THE VALLEYS. A WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING BKN CIGS TO MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER 23Z AND
SCT -SHSN OVER THE MTNS. VFR SHOULD REMAIN THE PREVAILING
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THOUGH WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES. VALLEY TAFS MAY AGAIN BE
DEALING WITH PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.

UT...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JAD
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...JAD