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000
FXUS65 KGJT 061636
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1036 AM MDT SUN JUL 6 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SUN JUL 6 2014

SKIES CLEARED OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL COOLING AND SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHWEST OF KGJT. FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH WILL SERVE TO ADVECT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD.
HOWEVER...STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO FUEL DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...TODAY/S
STORMS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED IN THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT SHEAR AND
MARGINAL CAPE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
RIDGE IN SUCH CLOSE PROXIMITY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHS WILL PEAK A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAY/S AND THIS WAS GENERALLY ACCEPTED.

LIGHT AND GENERALLY DISORGANIZED FLOW UNDER THE EXTENSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE MODELS
INDICATE A SUBTLE DECREASE IN MOISTURE TODAY...THIS SUBTLE
DIFFERENCE REVERSES ITSELF BY MON AFTERNOON. BY THEN...
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL AGAIN BE HALF AN INCH ALONG OUR
EASTERN EDGE TO AROUND 0.80 INCH OR BETTER IN SOUTHEAST UT...FROM
AROUND MOAB SOUTHWARD. MODELS DO KEEP THE DEEPER SUB TROPICAL
PLUME TO OUR WEST...CENTERED THROUGH WESTERN AZ INTO NV. WHILE
SOUTHEAST UT MAY SEE MORE MOISTURE...THE HIGHER SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN A FOCUS. AFTER CONVECTION WINDS DOWN THIS
EVENING AS IS USUAL IN THIS DIURNAL PATTERN...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON...FAVORING THE
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT SUN JUL 6 2014

OTHER THAN SUBTLE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT...
TRAPPED MOISTURE UNDER THE PERSISTENT RIDGE WILL AGAIN RESULT IN
DIURNAL AND TERRAIN DRIVEN CONVECTION. AFTER ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN
AS HEATING SUBSIDES MON EVENING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP TUE AFTERNOON. THE PATTERN REPEATS WITH THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA STILL SEEING THE BULK OF THE ACTION DUE
TO MORE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE THERE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUED TO HINT AT A SURGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE YIELDING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. PW VALUES NEAR 1 INCH COULD EXTEND WELL INTO THE REGION
RAISING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN. INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL AND BELOW LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1030 AM MDT SUN JUL 6 2014

DAYTIME HEATING WILL GENERATE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVER THE RIDGES
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH LESS MOISTURE WILL MEAN A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT
FROM THESE STORMS. THERE IS 10 PERCENT OR LESS CHANCE FOR A BRIEF
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AT KTEX...KASE...AND POSSIBLY KDRO FROM
20Z TO 02Z/MONDAY. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY IS UNLIKELY TO
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE CIGS OR VSBY. THEREFORE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL/EH
LONG TERM...EH/NL
AVIATION...CC