Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 152254

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
351 PM MST Wed Feb 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 330 PM MST Wed Feb 15 2017

The dry and unseasonably mild weather will continue through
Thursday across our area. However, valley inversions will hold
strong in some locations, particularly in the Gunnison area and
the Yampa Valley where temperatures will continue to be much
colder than model guidance.  Then a weak shortwave disturbance is
expected to bring a few showers mainly to the mountains Thursday

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM MST Wed Feb 15 2017

The shortwave disturbance mentioned above will precede an
unsettled period through the weekend due initially to a moist
southwest flow ahead of an upper low that is expected to drift
just south of our CWA by Sunday. Cooler temperatures can be
expected, except in the valleys with the strong inversions where
temperatures should moderate a little. H7 temperatures only range
from 0C to 3C through the weekend, and snow levels should be
elevated above most valley zones. Expect storm total snowfall in
the mountains within the 3-8 inch range above 8000 feet, with the
western San Juan Mountains likely to receive the most of any of
our mountain areas, with up to about 10 inches possible on
Highway 550 above the 10,000 foot level.

A migratory upper ridge can be expected on Monday with drier air
and some airmass warming. This will precede a WSW flow aloft
Monday night through Wednesday with some mid level moisture
embedded in the flow likely moving across our area at times, and
above normal temperatures in most of our CWA. could be a few
showers at times mainly over the mountains, though QPF should be
minimal from any showers.

Then the models are indicating the next round of unsettled weather
with significant widespread precipitation will begin Wednesday
night, though that is presently just barely beyond the current
forecast package temporal limits. Anyway, it looks hopeful for more
precipitation on the horizon later next week for our region,
assuming that the models have a good handle on the situation.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1035 AM MST Wed Feb 15 2017

Visual Flight Rules will dominate the TAF forecasts over the next
24 hours. Surface winds will be terrain driven and generally less
than 10 mph. The only concern will be low clouds over the Gunnison
Basin which may burn off by late afternoon and return overnight.




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