Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 171240
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
540 AM MST MON NOV 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM MST MON NOV 17 2014

A JUGGERNAUT OF A TROUGH IS TAKING REFUGE OVER ALL OF NOAM EXPECT
THE FAR LEFT COAST. STRONG MERIDIONAL FLOW IS ALLOWING ARCTIC AIR TO
STREAM INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
MORNING ARE WEST OF THE ROCKIES. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME LOW
TEMPERATURES BROKEN THIS MORNING WITH GJT JUST A FEW DEGREES FROM
OUR NUMBER OF 12. THIS COLD AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE AND INCREASING
HEIGHTS ALOFT ONLY MEANS ONE THING...INVERSION. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
WILL BE AROUND TODAY...EVEN IN THE NORTHEAST CWA WHERE OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS
ARE HOLDING IN ATTM. DRIER AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN WITH
THE INVERSION INCREASING THE STABILITY AT NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL.
THERE COULD BE SOME FLURRIES EARLY TODAY BUT IT APPEARS CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE DECREASE THROUGH LATE MORNING. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
WILL BE STAYING CLOSER TO THE COLDER MET/ECE GUIDANCE THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND SEE HOW IT PANS OUT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM MST MON NOV 17 2014

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD GRADUALLY
BREAKS DOWN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. PACIFIC ENERGY UNDERCUTS
THE RIDGE WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE FIRST WAVE THAT UNDERCUTS THE
RIDGE MOST LIKELY WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AND WILL NOT HAVE MUCH
IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER. BUT EACH SUBSEQUENT SHORT WAVE WILL
BE STRONGER. A SHARPER PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN INTO WRN COLORADO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
APPEARS TO BE A QUICK HITTER BUT COULD HAVE SOME SHORT TERM IMPACT
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE THIRD AND STRONGEST PACIFIC WAVE SLAMS
INTO THE WEST COAST SATURDAY MORNING...BUT LOSES ITS SUBSTROPICAL
MOISTURE FEED AS IT REACHES THE WESTERN SLOPE BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER THE THIRD TROUGH HAS A NEGATIVE TILT ORIENTATION THAT MAY
EVOLVE INTO A DEEPENING WAVE AS IT CROSSES COLORADO...MEANING IT
MAY HAVE A LARGER IMPACT AND AFFECT TRAVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM MST MON NOV 17 2014

NO WEATHER RELATED AVIATION HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF



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