Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 280931
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
231 AM MST Mon Nov 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 223 AM MST Mon Nov 28 2016

The last wave to affect the area is now exiting the region though
favorable northwest flow will allow orographics to keep snowfall
in the picture over the higher terrain. From now until about
noon, a downturn in intensity and coverage is expected as
widespread lift decreases. QG Omega and cross sections agree
showing minimal lift.

The next wave has already set its sights on eastern Utah and
western Colorado, however. Infrared and water vapor imagery
clearly show this next wave already dropping down into Nevada and
Utah and reaching our area from about midmorning onwards.

By noon today, the next shot of snowfall will begin and
persist through Tuesday morning. Cross sections show the highest
omega values through and above the dendritic growth region which
should make for some efficient snow making. Some of our southern
advisories and warnings were set to expire this morning but
instead of dropping them, went ahead and extended them through
Tuesday morning. Granted, there will be a break in snowfall for
quite a few areas but it shouldn`t last long, a short 6 hours or
so, before the snow gets going again. Northwest slopes of the San
Juans will get the most snow from this wave with a gorge event
certainly possible. As far as the Upper Gunnison Valley, areas to
the west of Gunnison will be favored especially Cerro Summit and
the Blue Mesa areas. Snowfall amounts with this next wave look to
be on the order of 6 to 10 inches with higher amounts possible.
Once the storm is finally over, storm total snowfall amounts will
probably be pretty impressive!

By daybreak tomorrow morning, most energy will have shifted to
our east with models highlighting only the northern and central
mountains seeing any appreciable snow. The warnings and advisories
for the San Juans, Gunnison area, and Uncompahgre will expire at
6AM while the remaining highlights will end at noon. They can be
pulled down sooner, if needed. For the rest of Tuesday, plenty of
clouds will remain with only some light snowshowers to contend
with.

As far as temperatures are concerned, each wave continues to bring
in colder air so expect high temperatures anywhere from 5 to 10
degrees below normal.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 334 PM MST Sun Nov 27 2016

Precipitation will generally favor areas north of I-70 Tuesday
with showers lingering along the Colorado Divide through early
Wednesday. Looking at the forecast for the rest of the work
week...a transition to west-northwesterly flow aloft will bring a
return to dry and near seasonal weather for the rest of Wednesday
and Thursday. Long-range models begin to diverge after this
period: the GFS shows a cutoff low dropping into the Great Basin
early Friday while the Euro keeps it as an open wave. Until we see
better model agreement, have gone ahead and kept POPs conservative
for the latter half of the week with a chance for some mountain
showers.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 223 AM MST Mon Nov 28 2016

Snow showers will diminish in most locations overnight with a
brief break in shower activity for most TAF sites. The exception
will be over the mountains where snow showers will linger
overnight as one disturbance exits and another approaches from the
northwest. Expect shower activity to pick up again by mid-day
Monday. CIGS and VSBY will drop below ILS breakpoints at times in
heavier snow showers with low CIGS remaining throughout the
period. Some areas of freezing fog are also possible at the
mountain TAF sites...KTEX and KASE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MST Tuesday for COZ014-017.

     Winter Storm Warning until noon MST Tuesday for COZ004-009-010-
     012-013.

     Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MST Tuesday for COZ018-019.

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon MST Tuesday for COZ002-003-
     005-008.

UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...MMS
AVIATION...TGJT



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