Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 181759
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1159 AM MDT THU AUG 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 408 AM MDT Thu Aug 18 2016

Weak winds aloft will remain in place today with warm
temperatures working on moderately moist and unstable conditions.
Expect another round of primarily diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms with activity favoring the higher terrain. Winds
aloft remain light although storms should show an east southeast
drift today as influences of the northern rockies trough start
arriving. A surface front will also be sneaking south across
Wyoming and will be knocking on the northern zones by this
evening with the front expected to slide across northwest
Colorado by early Friday morning. This will send a little cooler
conditions across the northern zones for Friday and provide for a
bit more shear in the wind department for Friday afternoon and
evening. This could lead to a few stronger thunderstorms across
the north where strong outflow wind gusts would be expected. SPC
highlighting our far northern zones in a marginal risk for Friday.
With a few active wildfires still burning across the region, this
uptick in outflow wind potential will need to be monitored
closely.

Overall, temperatures will be running at to slightly above normal
across the board, even with the front sliding into the northern
zones.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 408 PM MDT Wed Aug 17 2016

The northern zones are expected to dry out Friday night with the
drier weather lingering through the weekend. However, the southern
zones will see enough moisture hanging around that diurnally
driven storms will remain in the forecast each afternoon and
evening through Sunday.

By next week the mid-range models are showing a different solution
than just 24 hours ago, lowering forecast confidence. Deeper moisture
now works back in from the SW beginning Monday. The mechanism is a
closed low over southern California. Previous models runs kept
this feature lingering along the coast. Today the models are
lifting it into the region. if this solution is correct a trough
passage on Tuesday could produce the best storm coverage. Moisture
remains marginal though, around 0.9 inch precipitable water at
best. Temperatures will be running near seasonal normals through
this period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1148 AM MDT Thu Aug 18 2016

Currently the visible satellite image is showing showers and
thunderstorms popping up around the area and they are expected to
stick around through sunset. Cloud bases are anticipated to
generally remain above 10000 feet. Confidence is medium for VCTS
at many of the TAF sites.

&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...JOE/JDC
AVIATION...Larry



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