Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 220930

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
330 AM MDT Mon May 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 207 AM MDT Mon May 22 2017

The shortwave trough which brought unsettled weather to the region
yesterday continued to bring light showers to the central Colorado
mountains early this morning. This system and its associated
weather is expected to push east of the area according to models
and extrapolated movement of the disturbance. In its wake skies
will be clearing and the morning will be mostly sunny for most
locations after sunrise.

However, clouds are expected fill in again across the north as the
next fast moving shortwave trough descends across Wyoming this
afternoon. Driven southward on the nose of a 100 kt jet, this low
amplitude wave and its associated cold front are expected to reach
the Elkhead and Park Mountains late this afternoon. The system
continues southward through Colorado`s central mountains during
the evening, then pushes south of the forecast area later tonight.
Good forcing associated with this system should translate into
fairly widespread precipitation for areas along and north and east
of a KGUC to KRIL to KCAG line. Embedded thunderstorms will bring
heavier showers. Snow accumulations will be limited to areas at
or above 10,000 feet and, due to the short duration of this event,
are not expected to generate significant impacts.

Flow continues out of the north on Tuesday and the day begins dry
and mostly sunny in the wake of the system discussed previously.
Models indicated another shallow shortwave trough will brush the
Continental Divide during the afternoon. However, moisture pretty
limited so precipitation chances appear to be minimal affecting
only the peaks along the Divide. Otherwise, the area will see
partly to mostly sunny skies.

A slight warming at the 7h level combined with fewer clouds
during the early part of today should bring slightly warmer
temperatures during the afternoon. However, highs will continue to
fall short of seasonal norms. Little change is indicated tonight
and Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 207 AM MDT Mon May 22 2017

A ridge of high pressure will push east across the forecast area
Tuesday night into Wednesday bringing dry and warmer conditions
through the period. A strong storm system will move east across the
northern Rockies Wednesday night and its associated cold front will
push through eastern Utah and western Colorado Wednesday night
through Thursday bringing an increased chance of showers and
thunderstorms with cooler temperatures. A series of weak shortwaves
will move through the area Friday through Sunday bringing seasonably
cool temperatures and an unsettled weather pattern into the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 207 AM MDT Mon May 22 2017

TAF sites will have VFR conditions and CIGS will be above ILS
breakpoints throughout the morning and into the afternoon. From
00Z to 06Z/Tuesday, KEGE and KASE are likely to experience rain
showers as a cold front moves southward over those sites. This
activity is likely to result in CIGS below ILS breakpoints and
possibly brief MVFR vsby in moderate to heavy showers.
Thunderstorms may accompany showers. KRIL has a good chance of
seeing similar conditions. Conditions improve during the overnight
hours. The remaining TAF sites are unlikely to be impacted by
this weather system.






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