Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 181639
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1039 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2015

ANOTHER CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
IMPACT OUR WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
OVER NEVADA BY THIS EVENING AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN
WYOMING BY LATE TUESDAY. EXPECT CLOUDS TO LOWER AND THICKEN TODAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO
BE FAIRLY HIGH WITH THIS EVENT WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES AT GJT
AROUND 3C BY 00Z TUESDAY AND LOWERING TO NEAR 0C ON TUESDAY. WE
EXPECT THE MAIN IMPACT TO REMAIN ABOVE 10KFT THROUGH TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH WET SNOW TO FALL ON GRASSY SURFACES DOWN TO 9000 FEET.
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE ON TUESDAY AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST INTO WYOMING WITH SEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST UPDATES
ON THIS SPRING STORM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2015

BEGINNING OF LONG TERM ALMOST LOOKS LIKE A CARBON COPY OF THE
PREVIOUS STORM. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE MOVED OVER WY
AS PRECIP ENDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT. BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...A FEW NUISANCE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE MTNS BUT
ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL BE OVER. OUT WEST...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS
IN OVER THE AREA (SOUND FAMILIAR?). EVEN WITH RIDGING IN
PLACE...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME SHOWERY PRECIP OVER THE DIVIDE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
THURSDAY EVENING.

SOME DIFFERENCES POP UP BETWEEN MODELS AS THE LOW APPROACHES WITH
THE GFS PAINTING PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERMTN WEST EXCEPT
FOR ERN UT AND WRN CO WHILE THE EC KEEPS PRECIP IN THE PICTURE FOR
US. GOOD JET SUPPORT LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE AS DOES MOISTURE ALBEIT
SOMEWHAT DRIER THAN SEEN WITH PREVIOUS STORMS.  SO NOT SURE WHY
GFS DOWNPLAYING PRECIP CHANCES. EVEN WITH THE DIFFERENCES
MENTIONED...THINK IT`S A SAFE BET THAT ANOTHER CLOUDY...RAINY
WEEKEND IN STORE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1039 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY FROM 18Z TO 21Z...IMPACTING MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ALONG WITH GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF IMPACTING AIRPORTS
FROM 23Z TO 04Z/TUES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
BRIEF MVFR VSBY THOUGH OUTFLOW WINDS TO 35 TO 40 MPH ARE A GREATER
THREAT. THE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. COOLING TEMPERATURES WILL BRING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO
NEAR 10000 FEET.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPM
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...NL



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