Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 160003
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
503 PM MST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MST MON DEC 15 2014

ONE SYSTEM EXITS TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING
WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK IN LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
SHRTWV RIDGING NOW MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE NEXT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS WAVE
MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH BETWEEN 0300 AND 0600
TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIP CONTINUES MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL BRING SUB-
ADVISORY AMOUNT SNOWFALL TO THE NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST
COLORADO MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ANTICIPATED.
SOME SHOWERS SNEAK INTO THE SAN JUANS AS WELL...BUT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LIGHT. THIS WAVE DEPARTS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH INFLUENCE OF YET ANOTHER SURGE OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO
BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MST MON DEC 15 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. A WEST COAST TROUGH EVENTUALLY MOVES INLAND
AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES ABOUT THU. THE PREFERRED
NAM AND ECMWF SHOW THE TROUGH SPLITTING AND HANGING BACK MORE OVER
THE SOUTHWEST AS IT CROSSES THE GREAT BASIN WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY
TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH...WHILE THE GFS APPEARED FASTER AND A LITTLE
MORE CONSOLIDATED. A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE
TROUGH. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE SRN
MTNS WED NIGHT INTO THU...WITH THE LEAST CHANCE IN NE UT/NW CO.
HOWEVER...NAM (AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ECMWF) SHOWS A PERIOD OF LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AGAIN AS IT FORECAST
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 700 MB LOW CIRCULATION. SOMETHING TO WATCH IN
LATER RUNS BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW PER MODEL DIFFERENCES TO LATCH ON
THIS FEATURE RIGHT NOW IN THE POPS GRIDS.

FRIDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY BEHIND THE TROUGH...THOUGH NW FLOW COULD
KEEP A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS. ANOTHER PACIFIC WAVE
LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS TIME COMING IN MORE FROM
THE NORTHWEST THEN THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST THOUGH WILL KEEP POPS LOW
AT THE MOMENT DUE TO MODEL UNCERTAINTIES. DRIER WEATHER
SHOULD RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 457 PM MST MON DEC 15 2014

HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES WITH THE LOWEST CIGS
EXPECTED FROM 12Z THROUGH 18Z OR SO. DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH PRECIP
FOR TAF SITES THOUGH A PASSING SHOWER IS POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH YET TO INCLUDE IN ANY TAFS THOUGH. LUCKILY...THE WAVE
QUICKLY MOVES OFF IN THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING CLOUDS TO LIFT. BY AND
LARGE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MIDLEVEL CIGS MONDAY MORNING
AND SOME LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD ALSO LIFT IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGR


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