Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 231649
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1049 AM MDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SUN AUG 23 2015

A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVER
WESTERN COLORADO. WITH THIS PATTERN...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION EXPECTED TODAY (ALTHOUGH A WEAK
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE HAS TRIGGERED ISOLATED STORMS OVER
SE UTAH THIS MORNING) AND TOMORROW WITH ACTIVITY DIMINISHING
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTH
ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER
WITH LINGERING MOISTURE CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTH...EXPECT
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE CONVECTION TO FIRE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET. SOME ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHICH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BUT WE EXPECT HAZY CONDITIONS TO
LINGER AS RESIDUAL SMOKE FROM WESTERN FIRES REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. NO BIG CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES AS SEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT SUN AUG 23 2015

EASTERLY WAVE WILL BE NORTHBOUND ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE COLORADO AND THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.
MOISTURE SURGE MOVES INTO SRN UTAH FIRST BEFORE SPREADING INTO WRN
COLORADO. PWAT VALUES RISES ON TUESDAY...EXCEEDING 1 INCH OVER
SERN UTAH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PEAK PWAT VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND
1.25 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY. THESE VALUES SHOULD CORRESPOND TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALL AREAS...NUMEROUS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. BULK
SHEAR REACHES 20-25 KTS...SUGGESTING THAT ISOLATED STORMS COULD BE
STRONG AND PRODUCE HAIL/STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. SHORT WAVE (MAY
EVOLVE INTO A WEAK CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION) IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE
AROUND THE HIGH CORE ALONG THE WYOMING/COLORADO BORDER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY...BUT DRYING TREND WITH LESS STORMS IS EXPECTED FOR THE
DESERT VALLEYS. HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS BACK INTO COLORADO ON FRIDAY
AND DIURNAL CONVECTION RETURN TO THE TERRAIN DRIVEN VARIETY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1049 MDT SUN AUG 23 2015

SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF KCEZ WILL BE JOINED BY
STORMS FIRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE LA SAL...ABAJO AND
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS AS WELL.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL GENERATE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN OBSCURING HIGHER TERRAIN AT TIMES. THERE IS A 20 TO 35
PERCENT CHANCE FOR SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE OVER KCEZ...KDRO
AND KTEX DURING THIS PERIOD...THOUGH IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT CIGS WILL
FALL BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS. AFTER 02Z/MON...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING REGION
WIDE AND PERSISTING THROUGH 18Z/MON.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPM
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...NL


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