Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 040022
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
522 PM MST Sun Dec 3 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 310 PM MST Sun Dec 3 2017

Our upstream is approaching our doorstep this afternoon with the
front just pushing out of the Salt Lake Valley into the Wasatch
attm. There is a southerly gradient ahead of this storm which also
has an elevated moisture tap. So far the forcing is too weak to
produce much more than sprinkles/flurries out of this thicker mass
of clouds but it will be slowly helping the top down saturation
process. Looks like the bulk of the action will be centered around
the cold frontal passage including strong wind gusts in the lower
elevations and bursts of heavy snow across the northern and
central Colorado mountians. Really no noticeable change from 24
hours ago with this storm making another subtle shift northward.
The Park and Gore Range still appear to receive the best snow
totals from the storm with cold northwest orographics behind the
cold front keeping snow going there through tomorrow evening. The
Elks to West Elks should get a decent shot of snow with the fropa
as well but should be shutting off sooner than the north. The
burst of heavy snow combined with strong wind gust this evening
through early Monday morning will create some difficult travel
conditions for sure. Seeing some gusts over 45 mph in several
locations and this should continue with approach of the front and
some clearing in the West as the higher cloud shield shifts
southeast. The strongest winds likely this evening and advisories
covering this well. On the fence on adding the Gunnison Basin as
do not think it will be much of an issue except the hour when the
front pushes through. Besides the snow and wind...much cooler
temperatures will be another piece of this storm and lows by
sunrise the next few days will be back to or below normal. It
seems very likely some below zero reading will be showing up in
the colder valleys and basins by sunrise on Tuesday. Highs on
Monday easily 20 degrees colder most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM MST Sun Dec 3 2017

Not really sure what to say about the extended forecast except
that skiers will be quite depressed especially those seeking fresh
powder. The pattern is really one huge block with a highly
amplified ridge along the Left Coast extending from the Baja into
the Yukon. This will be an effective barrier for any Pacific
moisture with the storm track not even in the picture. There will
some passing high clouds and flurries possible with a system
moving near the Rockies mid-week but doubt snow will be
measurable. Temperatures will likely struggle in the valleys in
the wake of this cold air. Inversions will be slow to break but we
should see a general slow warm up through the week after the
coolest day on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 522 PM MST Sun Dec 3 2017

Strong winds will remain the primary hazard to aviation operations
at TAF sites through the next 12 hours. Strong southwest winds of
20 to 30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH will impact TAF sites until cold
frontal passage. Post-frontal winds will be west to northwesterly
and will remain strong into the early morning hours. Meanwhile,
the showers associated with this system are unlikely to impact all
but KEGE and KASE tonight. This activity will likely reduce
visibility to MVFR levels in snow and blowing snow for these sites
with brief IFR conditions possible. In addition, lowering CIGS
will result in periods where CIGS are below ILS breakpoints
through sunrise Monday. The remaining TAF sites can expect VFR
conditions and CIGS above ILS breakpoints through the next 24
hours.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Wind Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for COZ001>003-
     006>008-011-014-020.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST Monday for COZ004-013.

UT...Wind Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for UTZ022-025-027-
     029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...NL



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