Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 272243
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
443 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAINED POSITIONED OVER UTAH
THIS WEEKEND WITH MOISTURE RECYCLING UNDER THE HIGH FOR SOME
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.  THE 12Z GJT SOUNDING INDICATED A PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW)
VALUE OF 0.52 INCHES WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  EXPECTING MOST
VALLEYS TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE RESIDES AND STORMS MAY DRIFT OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY.  MOISTURE BEGINS TO SLOWLY INCREASE
TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY UNDERNEATH THE HIGH.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN COVERAGE BUT OVERALL TRENDS REMAIN
THE SAME WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN AND MOST VALLEYS REMAINING DRY WITH A FEW DRIFTING OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY.  MOST WILL BE THE POP AND DROP
VARIETY WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT AND STORMS
LARGELY DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET AS THERE ARE NO DISCERNIBLE
FEATURES TO KEEP STORMS GOING OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
HOT THROUGHOUT WEEKEND WITH VALLEYS SEEING UPPER 90S TO TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER UTAH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH MOISTURE INCREASING UNDERNEATH THE HIGH TOWARDS 0.75
INCHES OF PW WITH VALUES APPROACHING AN INCH NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS. THIS MOISTURE WILL AGAIN BE RECYCLED DAY TO DAY WITH NO
REAL FEATURES TO PUSH IT OUT OF THE REGION. A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
THE MODELS VARY A BIT ON THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES BUT THIS SHOULD
HELP INTERACT WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND RESULT IN AN INCREASE
IN STORM COVERAGE AND ACTIVITY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH STORMS
FORMING MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EACH AFTERNOON WITH A FEW
DRIFTING OFF THE TERRAIN INTO THE VALLEYS LATER IN THE DAY. SOME
ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT THIS WILL ALL
DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40
MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH STORMS WITH A FEW CAPABLE OF
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS DIVING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL PUSH THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER UTAH FOR THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS FURTHER WEST TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN WITH THE CENTER REMAINING
OVER NEVADA THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.  THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE
OVERHEAD WITH A DRIER NW FLOW TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NE UTAH AND NW
COLORADO DURING THIS PERIOD HELPING TO SLOWLY PUSH THE LINGERING
TRAPPED MOISTURE OUT OF THE REGION.  PW VALUES WILL BE DECREASING
TOWARDS 0.5 INCHES AND LOWER BY SATURDAY RESULTING IN A DOWNTURN IN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.  ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR SOME AFTERNOON
STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE DIVIDE AND SAN JUANS.  A
FEW DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW MAINLY
AFFECTING THE FRONT RANGE WHERE BETTER MOISTURE LIVES AS THE WESTERN
SLOPE REMAINS MUCH DRIER.  MOST IF NOT ALL VALLEYS SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO SEE A SLIGHT COOLDOWN FROM THE
MID 90S AND TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IN THE VALLEYS THAT WE HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCING...WITH VALUES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FOR THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 443 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 35-40 MPH AT AIRPORTS EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST FIELDS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE KDRO MAY EXPERIENCE A THUNDERSHOWER EARLY THIS
EVENING. HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 18Z. DO NOT EXPECT CIGS WILL FALL BELOW ILS
BREAK POINTS DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...NL


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